We updated our model’s bracketology this morning, and as one might expect, Indiana’s looking a whole lot safer.
Others have talked, I’m sure, about what Indiana’s upset of Iowa last night says about Iowa. The highlights would be these: Iowa reminded us again that they, though good, are not Baylor or Gonzaga, and that is because their defense is profoundly mediocre. Are they one of the best three teams in the country? KenPom says yes, and I defer to KenPom. Are they a title contender? Only in the same sense Michigan, Villanova, Houston, Virginia, Texas, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Alabama are, or at least in a closer sense to all of those (and others, perhaps) than to college basketball’s shadow-warring kings this year.
So let’s talk more about what the win says about Indiana.
It was Indiana’s best win by a wide margin, eclipsing the neutral-court victory over Stanford, who’s currently projected to land firmly upon the bubble. In the end, it wasn’t all that close of a game, with the Hoosiers pulling away to win by double digits. The Hoosiers didn’t shut down Luka Garza—he wasn’t as efficient as normal, but he still posted 28 and 12. The Hoosiers didn’t shoot the lights out—47% from three is good, but they only took 17. The Hoosiers didn’t make easy work of free throws—they earned themselves 35 attempts from the line, but they missed 14 of those. Instead, the Hoosiers won by locking down the non-Garza/Wieskamp contingency of Iowa’s scorers while Rob Phinisee hit a few big threes, Trayce Jackson-Davis was his usual productive self, and the team avoided turnovers. It was an unremarkable set of factors that combined into a remarkable result.
Entering the week, our model had Indiana directed for a play-in game. Entering the weekend, they’re far from safe, but they’re into a comfortable stretch of the S-Curve, with arguably the best win in college basketball to their credit.
Moving Up: Indiana, Florida
Also rising from the bubble was Florida, who put everything together in a dominant performance Tuesday night against Tennessee. The Vols inflicted plenty of damage themselves—12-of-25 from the free throw line, most notably—but Florida’s defensive effort was effective, and the Gators find themselves, like Indiana, suddenly breathing a whole lot easier.
Moving Down: Colorado, Creighton, UConn, LSU, Duke, Richmond
There was no single notable mover in the downward trajectory this week, with six teams dropping two seed lines. So let’s talk about Duke.
There is a very real chance Duke misses the tournament.
The median projection at this point, for the Blue Devils, is to finish the regular season 13-9, then lose in the ACC semifinals to Virginia. That should get them in the field, which is why they’re currently in our model’s projected field. But it doesn’t leave much room for error, and it’s a résumé where as few as one win might land in Quadrant I on the team sheet. Lose a couple extra they shouldn’t—like Tuesday’s at Pitt—and they’ll be NIT-bound, or potentially worse.
The other losses in this group: Colorado dropped a terrible one at Washington. Creighton got beat at home by mediocre Providence. UConn got beat at home by bad St. John’s. LSU was the victim as Alabama established itself as the new SEC favorite. Richmond didn’t actually lose, but they didn’t play, and movement around them pushed them down close to the waterline.
Moving In: St. Bonaventure, Arkansas, Southern (Auto-bid)
The Bonnies haven’t lost this month, and boast a 7-1 overall record with a 5-1 mark in conference, having won on the road against Richmond and at home against VCU. Their only loss is forgivable: Rhode Island in Rhode Island. Keep doing what they should do, and they’ll put together a compelling case as the A-10’s second team.
For Arkansas, the picture’s murkier. The Razorbacks also show up in our NIT Bracketology this week, victims of the one bid thieving our model projects (this could come from a few leagues—it’s an aggregate one bid thieving, which happens in the median scenario now that Loyola’s in at-large-bid territory). Still, the Razorbacks are at least here today, with a very winnable road game on their plate tomorrow in Nashville.
Finally, in the SWAC, Southern’s projected easier bracket in the conference tournament puts them in ahead of Texas Southern, even though we’d have the latter favored in a head-to-head showdown.
Moving Out: Rutgers, Michigan State, Texas Southern (auto-bid)
Michigan State falls back out despite not playing, pulled cruelly by the tide. Rutgers falls out after losing their fifth straight game. All five losses are excusable, if not expected (home against Iowa, Ohio State, and Wisconsin; on the road against Michigan State and Penn State). But they’ll still weigh a team down, and they’re sure weighing down the Scarlet Knights, who technically did not make the tournament last year and therefore technically did not break their tournament drought.
