The Yankees, depending on how things go these next 27 hours, could enter the weekend series ten games back in the American League East. Things are not going well in the Bronx, and while this is an unusually rough year, the story’s been rather constant these last five years or so—the Yankees look great on paper, but can’t put it all together on the field.
To be clear, I’m not sure the Yankees should sell, and they certainly shouldn’t sell soon. They’re only three losses back of the A’s for the AL’s second wild card spot, and even with Major League Baseball’s crackdown on sticky substances, Gerrit Cole’s flashed a few good outings amidst the struggles, giving hope that he might still be a rather strong Wild Card Game starter if the Yankees can get there. They are still great on paper, good enough that they’d be a formidable playoff opponent, especially if they can get a few upgrades. But the possibility remains that the Yankees will sell, particularly with them under 50% playoff likely, per FanGraphs, entering today.
Who, though, would they sell? The Yankees don’t have many contracts expiring this year. Their impact players are rather core to their future, a future that one would imagine is still rather intact. The most likely thing for them to do, should they sell, would be to trim a little fat and give a few role players away for peanuts. But let’s talk through the situation. Just to feel it out.
Easy Dump: Rougned Odor
Odor is a serviceable bat. He’s under contract for next season, but the Rangers are paying for it, meaning he provides some value next year as well. You might not get a ton for him, but if someone wants a slightly-above replacement level second baseman, he’s an easy one to flip.
From here, though, it gets harder.
Time to Move On? Gary Sánchez
Sánchez is still arbitration-eligible this offseason, but after that, he’s a free agent, and given his travails at times, it’s fair to wonder if the Yankees would try to extract some value from him while opening up his space behind the plate. He’s a capable enough catcher to platoon, and his bat’s good enough to DH some or potentially work in at first if a team’s willing to try him there. You could probably get something solid for a guy with a 120 wRC+ who’s still under club control.
Club Controlled, Valuable: Jameson Taillon, Chad Green
Taillon and Green are on the same timeline as Sánchez as far as arbitration goes, and each is producing right now, which matters. If Green were on the market, one would imagine he’d fetch a fairly high price, and Taillon could be a big get for a team looking to fill out their rotation.
The issue is that each is valuable to the Yankees for next year too, and at presumably rather affordable prices. So we’ll see what happens with them.
Would He Accept a Trade? Brett Gardner
I believe Gardner is a 10-and-5 guy, which then gives him no-trade rights. If he were to waive them, he could be a nice pickup for a team looking for experience, leadership, and outfield help. But he might want to retire a Yankee, and the Yankees might want that themselves, and he’s within range of that being a possibility, turning 38 next month.
Enticing If They Can Get Him Right (Performance): Justin Wilson
Wilson’s got a player option for next year that one would imagine he’d take, as it pays him more than he’ll command on the open market. His xERA’s a fine 4.35, but his FIP and ERA are dreadful, and he missed a month with a hamstring strain. As a lefty, Wilson’s always valued if he’s getting some number of outs, but right now he’s not getting quite enough.
Enticing If They Can Get Him Right (Health): Zack Britton, Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, Darren O’Day
Kluber isn’t eligible to come off the 60-Day IL until the end of the month, so if he hits that target, he’ll be a one-start, show-what-you-can-do guy. He could be rather valuable on this sparse starting pitching market, which is why he makes the list, and his contract’s up after this year, making it easy for the Yankees to say goodbye, but the timing just might not work.
Severino is under contract through next year, and then there’s a club option for 2023. He hasn’t pitched in a game since the end of 2019, and he made only three starts that season. Basically, the question with him is whether the Yankees would rather have his huge-upside, sizable-downside self on their roster or a more certain asset, and whether a team trying to make something happen this year would take a shot on that same upside.
Britton’s had trouble being healthy at all this year, and he’s got a big price tag for next season, but if he can come off the IL again and start getting outs, someone might be willing to pay big. He’s been so great at times.
Finally, O’Day. O’Day just went on the IL with a hamstring problem, making him as big of a timing issue as Kluber. He’s got a player option for 2022, but he might not take it. Good bullpen arm, might extract some value, but he, like all these guys, must be healthy (or at least healthy enough) to do that.
Would They Really? Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Judge
Chapman is signed through next season, and his value’s about the lowest it’s ever been, which is saying something given his history. It would probably take a very desperate market for anyone to want him at a price suitable for the Yankees, but on the flipside of that, if the Yankees start fearing he’s washed, they might want to get out while they can instead of having him loom on the payroll through next year.
Judge is a different story. He’s been monstrous at the plate, as is his wont, and he’s putting together one of his healthiest campaigns to date (yes, I’ll knock on wood for Aaron Judge). It’s borderline unthinkable that the Yankees would move him (especially because it would be so un-Yankees-like), but they could get an outrageous haul, and after 2022 he’s a free agent.
Everyone Else
Everyone else is under contract or club control through 2023, and while there are definitely guys the Yankees could flip, they’re small enough or expensive enough or a big enough piece of the future that it’s hard to see them actually doing it. Maybe Lucas Luetge. He’s a reclamation project anyway and could command a solid price. Maybe Domingo Germán, who might not turn out to be good enough to justify holding him in what, for his position, is a sellers’ market. But all the club control there ramps up their value, and the Yankees, who presumably plan on near-constant contention in the coming years, might want to hold as much as they can for themselves.
