Ian Happ is having a good year.
Through almost a quarter of the season, Happ leads the Cubs in wRC+, and would lead in fWAR if it weren’t for the intermittent dominance of Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Infamously demoted to Des Moines for much of last year, Happ’s started ten of the thirteen games so far in center, and has yet to be given a game fully off. Better still, his batted ball data indicates he’s been a bit unlucky, with Statcast giving him an xwOBA of .458 against his real wOBA of .424.
It’s only thirteen games. Happ could cool off. But so far, he’s been a top-20 hitter in the MLB, and that’s over nearly a quarter of the season.
Tonight, coronavirus-willing, the Cubs start a three-game set against the Cardinals, with whom they’re tied in the loss column despite leading by eight wins. The series is in St. Louis, and with the Cardinals coming off a covid outbreak, they’re expected to be short-staffed.
The stop represents a big opportunity for the visitors. Leading the Brewers by three and a half and the Reds by five, and having won a series against each division opponent they’ve faced, two or three wins this weekend would push Happ & Co. that much further ahead in the division race as they complete their first intraleague circuit, building an encouraging buffer against a deep-on-paper field of challengers.
Tonight’s the best opportunity of the weekend, with Jon Lester opposing Daniel Ponce de Leon, and Sunday could be something of a marquee matchup, as it looks like Hendricks will face off with Jack Flaherty. The Cardinals are still the reigning division champions. A series win by the Cubs could make that rather irrelevant.
