Well, at least it was a good night offensively.
Adbert Alzolay has a hamstring issue, and given he’s past 100 major league innings for the first time in his career and the Cubs have nothing for which to play, one would imagine they’ll play it pretty safe with him.
Guys having good nights included Frank Schwindel again, David Bote, Alzolay offensively (hit a double!), Robinson Chirinos, Johneshwy Fargas, Ian Happ, Rowan Wick, and Manny Rodríguez.
Let’s talk about Happ.
For a while, Ian Happ’s xwOBA was hopeful. We wrote a lot about that hopeful xwOBA early in the year. It’s no longer hopeful. It’s bad. It’s at .287, and his real wOBA’s at .277, and he’s got a 71 wRC+.
This is fairly shocking. Happ’s never gotten a full season’s worth of plate appearances, but he’s always been above league-average at the dish, with a 128 wRC+ in 2019 and a 132 wRC+ in 2020 over an average of about 200 PA’s those two years. There have been periodic struggles before, but this is out of nowhere.
The strikeout rate is high, but it’s not far off of his career average. The walk rate is pretty good. He’s got a terrible BABIP, but again, the xwOBA’s not much better than the wOBA, implying some really terrible contact. And looking at his average exit velocity, that’s what’s down. He’s in the middle of the league, and he was always closer to the top of the league these past few years. If you’re going to strike out as much as Ian Happ does, you have to hit the ball hard, and he just isn’t managing the same degree of contact he’s found in the past.
Others are better-equipped than I to diagnose root causes and prescribe solutions to this sort of thing. Hopefully he turns it around and has more nights like last night (two walks, home run). In the meantime, he’s still fairly likely to be part of the outfield mix next season. He’s affordable. The Cubs have a lot of other holes to fill. I could be wrong on this, and he might not be an everyday player, but he’s likely to be in the mix. After all: it’s only been one bad year.
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Draft Watch:
The Cubs narrowed the gap between them and the Marlins by a game, meaning there are now six teams within two games chasing that fifth pick (if you subscribe to that dichotomy, which I don’t really, but it’s easier linguistically in this section to just treat it that way).
The Diaspora:
Kyle Schwarber was activated last night by the Red Sox, designated hitting, walking twice, and scoring twice. Javy Báez is going on the IL. Kris Bryant went 2-for-5 with a double as the Giants held onto their five-game lead in the West.
Around the Division:
Jack Flaherty threw six shutout innings in Kansas City, striking out five and walking none while allowing just two hits and throwing just 81 pitches. The Cardinals are five and a half back of the Padres for the second wild card spot. The Reds are two and a half back after beating the Phillies last night.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Miami
When:
5:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Miami
Weather:
I think the roof will still be closed.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Zach Thompson
The Opponent:
Thompson’s a rather unheralded rookie, but he’s been good, sporting a 4.03 xERA and a 3.78 FIP over ten starts (and 46.2 IP).
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +150 underdogs, with the Marlins at -160 for an implied win probability of about 38%. The over/under’s at eight and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Would imagine Alzolay goes on the IL today. Would be a good sign if he doesn’t, but also possibly a “what are you doing?” sign.
Cubs Thoughts:
I don’t know. On Zach Davies days, I lean towards tanking. Do want to see the bats do well, though.
