Ian Happ’s fourth-inning single last night was nothing special—a well-hit ball, yes, but not smashed. Statcast gave it a 50/50 chance, on the nose, of turning into a single.
But it did turn into a single, and Nico Hoerner came around to score, and the Cubs took a lead they would not go on to relinquish. It was Happ’s 42nd hit of the season, and with the Cubs very much within striking distance from division foes, they’ve needed all 42.
Whether you ascribe to the theory that the Cubs wasted Happ by sending him back to Des Moines last year, or you think the return to Des Moines helped him begin to achieve his potential, something is working with the 26-year-old. He’s sixth in the NL in wRC+. He’s sixth in fWAR. He’s tied for sixth in home runs. Across the MLB, his xwOBA is in the top ten percent. He’s been far and away the Cubs’ best hitter, keeping a team with a 20th-ranked-by-wRC+ offense comfortably in the playoff picture all year.
Happ might go on to be a perennial all-star. He may be peaking this year. Whichever it is, or even if it’s both, the Cubs have needed him mightily, and they still do, because they’re still a hypothetical disastrous week away from the edge.
The series with the Reds played out in the exact opposite manner of what was expected. The Cubs lost Yu Darvish’s (good) start. The Cubs won the series. With the Cardinals splitting both of their doubleheaders over the timeframe, this meant the Cubs gained half a game on their closest competition, pushing the Reds further underwater while they did it and holding the Brewers at bay. There’s a cushion there, and it’s not a big one, but it’s there, and that’s important, because the Cubs are a sizeable underdog tonight in Milwaukee as they open three against the team that over 2018 and 2019 was their biggest rival.
The Brewers have been hard to get a handle on this year. Christian Yelich struggled out of the gate. Corbin Burnes is their best pitcher. On September 1st, they lost 12-1 to the Tigers and it wasn’t all that surprising. Eight days later, they beat the Tigers 19-0 and it was again not all that surprising.
I don’t have any data to suggest the Brewers are more inconsistent than other teams, but whether they are or aren’t, the fact is that they remain a threat. From here, they go on to play three against the Royals, three against the Reds, and ten against the Cardinals while the Cubs have to play eight against good AL Central teams and a fortunate four against the Pirates. With a series win, the Cubs can probably narrow the scope of their concern to solely the Cardinals. With a series loss, it’s anyone’s guess where things will stand with the Cardinals and Reds, but the Brewers will remain firmly within the danger zone.
Ian Happ’s carried the Cubs offense through these first three-quarters of the season. Will he carry it through another weekend?
