22 days before the trade deadline, I wrote that the three teams trailing the Mets in the NL East were not buyers. Specifically, I wrote:
But realistically, unless the Mets have a terribly difficult time against the…*checks schedule*…Pirates and…*doublechecks that the schedule’s built this way*…Pirates over the next week and a half, the picture, at best (for these teams), is going to look very similar to how it looks right now when discussions really start ramping up. The Mets are flawed, but part of that is a cosmic thing, they’re the best team in that division, they’ve got a comfortable-enough lead, and even if they do start to fall apart, there’s only a one-in-three shot that any of these individual teams is the one that catches the bouquet. None even has a winning record right now.
To be fair, the Mets did struggle against the Pirates and the Pirates. To be further fair, I was right about the Nationals, who were the loudest name of the trio at the time.
But…well…
Ten days before the trade deadline, I wrote that the Phillies might want to buy at the deadline, but that it would be a big risk and might be impossible given their lack of prospects and unwillingness to exceed the luxury task threshold. I suggested they wait until next year, when their odds might top 1-in-4 to make the playoffs at all. Specifically, I wrote:
A 22.3% chance is a big one upon which to roll the dice. The Mets do have to play thirteen straight against the Giants and Dodgers at one point in August, but the 22.3% number knows that. One could argue it overestimates the probability of deGrom pitching healthily through the season’s last two months (and Carrasco pitching healthily, and Noah Syndergaard returning at all, etc.), but simultaneously, it may be overestimating the probability the Phillies, who’ve gotten more than half their fWAR from four guys (Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper), stay as healthy as they’ll need to.
To be fair, I added that the following ten days might help make the decision. To be further fair, the Phillies’ probability dropped over those ten days.
Now, the Phillies are in first place.
A lot goes into this. My farm system evaluation neglected recent graduate Spencer Howard, who became the key piece of the Kyle Gibson/Ian Kennedy trade, helping bring back four million dollars that in turn sure helped the luxury tax piece. Jacob deGrom did suffer a setback. But much of this comes down to one thing: The Phillies started winning. They started winning, and Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld addressed needs (creatively, in the ongoing Ranger Suárez experiment), and yeah they’re top-heavy but that top is really freaking good, and I’m talking more about Zack Wheeler than the rest of them.
We’ll see, of course. But the Phils have better than a 50% shot of winning the East, and they have the easier schedule than Atlanta and New York from here.
