The Crimson Tide defense is good. Among Power Five teams that played full seasons this year, Nick Saban’s unit trails only Clemson, West Virginia, Georgia, and Pitt in opponent yards per play. The defense has stolen away enough possessions that Alabama, as a team, ranks in the top twelve in turnover margin per game. It’s not a bad defense.
But it’s nothing compared to the Alabama offense.
The Alabama offense is a machine the likes of which is absent in the rest of the college football landscape. Only once this season did the Tide score fewer than 40 points—in their opening 38-19 victory over Mizzou—and the Tide’s median output was a staggering 52 on the scoreboard. They’ve contributed half of the four Heisman finalists, between Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith. The offense is loaded, loaded enough to carry a defense that, by F+ (a combination of Bill Connelly’s SP+ and Brian Fremeau’s FEI), ranks only 11th in the FBS.
The question will be posed in the next few hours of whether Notre Dame can exploit this Alabama defense. It’s been done twice this year: Mississippi put up 48 when Bama came to Oxford; Florida mounted 46 against the SEC champions in Atlanta. Doing so might not be enough to win Notre Dame the game (again, that offense), but it’s a reasonably interesting matchup, at least compared to its counterpart (again, that offense).
Unfortunately for the Irish, making such a gain is a longshot. For one, the offense out of South Bend isn’t quite on par with those from Oxford and Gainesville. While Notre Dame ranks 11th in offensive F+ (as we said, it’s a reasonably interesting matchup), Mississippi entered bowl season 9th. Florida entered 4th. Worse still, Alabama’s defense is better against the rush (12th in opponent yards per attempt) than it is against the pass (40th). Mississippi and Florida each rank in the top ten in yards per pass attempt. Notre Dame’s 31st. Ian Book is no Kyle Trask. Javon McKinley is no Elijah Moore.
It’s possible Book will play as well as he did against an undermanned Clemson unit in November. It’s possible Irish offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has something up his sleeve with all those tight ends, something that can keep the Irish in it. And to be fair, much stranger things have happened in college football history than a 20-point underdog winning a game that’s hard to forecast (Not a lot of ACC-SEC comp’s so far this year). But overall, we’re talking about the Irish staying in it. Not the Irish winning. Which underscores what an uphill battle Notre Dame has.
