Happy Opening Day, friends and family. The offseason is hours from being complete, and while the Padres and Twins just snuck a deal in before the buzzer, each team’s outlook is generally set. We have our starting points. Here’s what they are, starting in the American League:
Toronto Blue Jays
FanGraphs projected record: 92-70
The Blue Jays were busy. The Blue Jays are making a push. They traded for Matt Chapman, from the A’s. They signed Kevin Gausman. They did let Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, and Steven Matz all walk, but the thing about the Blue Jays these last few years has always been their young talent, and that’s flourishing. The AL East is almost always tough, and this year is not an exception. Within that division, though, the Jays are the team to beat.
New York Yankees
FanGraphs projected record: 91-71
The Yankees were also busy, engaging in something of a reset. Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela are off to Minnesota, with Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (from the Rangers, it was a three-way deal) replacing them. Luke Voit was sent to the Padres for a prospect. Anthony Rizzo’s back, Corey Kluber’s gone, the team looks a lot like those of previous years, but removing Sánchez and Voit clears up some of the pain points. As always, they should be competitive. As always, they either need things that haven’t been working to work, or they need more come July.
Houston Astros
FanGraphs projected record: 91-71
They’re still here, and while Carlos Correa and Zack Greinke are gone, Justin Verlander returns to the rotation. He’s scheduled to start Saturday against the Angels, who are not yet a clearly significant threat.
Chicago White Sox
FanGraphs projected record: 87-75
The White Sox made a recent splash, trading Craig Kimbrel from their bullpen depth to shore up their lineup in the form of A.J. Pollock. They let Carlos Rodón walk; they picked up Josh Harrison, a few bullpen pieces (Joe Kelly, Kendall Graveman), and a couple starting pitching lottery tickets (Johnny Cueto, Vince Velasquez). They’re the best team on paper in the Central, but not a runaway favorite.
Boston Red Sox
FanGraphs projected record: 86-76
Yes, the East has four competitive teams again, and it’s conceivable—the most likely individual outcome, actually—that the East contributes four of the AL’s six playoff teams in the expanded format. The Red Sox lost Kyle Schwarber, Eduardo Rodriguez, and José Iglesias. They brought in Trevor Story, Michael Wacha, James Paxton, and Rich Hill. They also dealt Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for a package including old friend Jackie Bradley Jr.
Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs projected record: 85-77
We would assume the Rays will again find a way. Their latest head-scratching move we assume will work was trading Austin Meadows to the Tigers for Isaac Paredes, and they also dealt away semi-veterans Joey Wendle, Jordan Luplow, and Mike Brosseau, but they’re the Rays. They know what they’re doing, or at least have earned that assumption. They did sign Corey Kluber, but most of their offseason was shedding old growth to make room for the new guys from their best-in-baseball farm system.
Anaheim Angels
FanGraphs projected record: 83-79
Mike Trout should be back, which is of course the biggest offseason acquisition imaginable. The Angels let Alex Cobb depart, signed Noah Syndergaard, and spent the rest of the offseason mostly dealing in the roster-filler areas of the market. We’ll see.
Minnesota Twins
FanGraphs projected record: 82-80
This projection doesn’t account for the additions of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán, which happened this morning in a deal that sent Taylor Rogers to the Padres. In addition to this and the Sánchez/Urshela deal, the Twins brought in Sonny Gray from the Reds and made a huge splash when they added Carlos Correa. They appear to be trying to contend, and it’s an uphill battle but behind the White Sox, the Central’s soft. We wish them the best. They’re doing the fun thing.
Seattle Mariners
FanGraphs projected record: 80-82
Can the Mariners recapture last year’s magic? They’ll definitely try. Famously active Jerry Dipoto added Eugenio Suárez, Jesse Winker, and Adam Frazier from the Reds and Padres, and he also signed Robbie Ray while shedding some rotation weight by letting Tyler Anderson, Yusei Kikuchi, and Paxton leave town.
Cleveland Guardians
FanGraphs projected record: 77-85
The Guardians’ biggest move of the offseason was not one focused on this year. They extended José Ramírez, the heart and soul of the franchise, and that’s another fun thing to do, especially since he signed a team-friendly deal, which is cool of him! Not a lot of other moves of note, though being the Guardians, they may have a Cy Young winner debuting this weekend of whom we’ve never heard.
Detroit Tigers
FanGraphs projected record: 77-85
Last year, the Tigers seemed to be just one year away. They’re still probably one year away. It’s not that they hurt themselves this offseason—adding Meadows, Tucker Barnhart, Rodriguez, Javy Báez, and Michael Pineda is a pretty good winter—but they probably just weren’t actually that close last year. They’re still on the upswing, but they have a ways to go.
Texas Rangers
FanGraphs projected record: 75-87
The Rangers got Mitch Garver out of the Gio Urshela trade, and they didn’t stop there. They signed Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Jon Gray, hardly anyone of value left, and…they’ve still got a little ways to go. The West isn’t a bad place to be for a team like this—the bones of the operation are there, if you think you’re in a good spot come July you can invest further—but there was just nothing in Arlington after the Joey Gallo trade. The barest of cupboards. Full reset.
Kansas City Royals
FanGraphs projected record: 75-87
The Royals brought back Zack Greinke, hitting the nostalgia note, but they did little else. Biding their time, I guess. But expect that biding to last a few years.
Oakland Athletics
FanGraphs projected record: 68-94
It’s dangerous to write off the A’s, but what an offseason this was. In addition to letting Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Harrison, and Yan Gomes all depart via free agency, they sold off Chapman, Matt Olson, Chris Bassitt, and Sean Manaea. They probably got great resources back in return, but this is not an A’s team bent on contention in 2022.
Baltimore Orioles
FanGraphs projected record: 63-99
Someone has to be bad in the East? Not technically true, but the Orioles will gladly take on that role. Not a lot of action from these guys, but their minor leaguers rock.
***
That’s the AL. This is the NL, again from top to bottom:
Los Angeles Dodgers
FanGraphs projected record: 95-67
The Dodgers are, as is our custom, the best team in baseball on paper, and they had as aggressive an offseason as ever. While Seager and Kenley Jansen departed, Clayton Kershaw and Chris Taylor stayed put, and Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and massive acquisition Freddie Freeman all join an already-loaded roster. Also, as we mentioned, they got Kimbrel. That’s a good guy to get.
Atlanta Braves
FanGraphs projected record: 93-69
Similarly to the Angels, Atlanta gets its best player back from injury soon in the form of Ronald Acuña Jr., who said some things last night that made it sound like he’s not going to miss Freeman. Atlanta brought in Matt Olson from Oakland, extended him, brought in Jansen through free agency, and re-signed Eddie Rosario while adding Manny Piña to help what’s sometimes been a dicey catching situation in recent years.
Milwaukee Brewers
FanGraphs projected record: 90-72
Nothing too large out of the Brewers this winter, as they let Avisaíl García leave through free agency and replaced him only with an aging Andrew McCutchen. The Brewers have incredible pitching and a suspect lineup, and their pitching is heavily dependent on just a few dudes, unless someone new breaks out. Same recipe as last year. Worked pretty well! Brewers fans undoubtedly want more, though, and thankfully for them, theirs is an organization that’s not averse to getting aggressive come midseason.
San Diego Padres
FanGraphs projected record: 90-72
Fernando Tatís Jr. broke his wrist in a motorcycle accident, but the Padres swapped out Paddack for Manaea, effectively, brought in Rogers to help their bullpen, and should generally be expected to bounce back. They’re just so much better on paper than they were on the field last year. That’s normally one of the safer teams to count on.
New York Mets
FanGraphs projected record: 88-74
Jacob deGrom is out with a stress reaction in his shoulder, and big offseason pickup Max Scherzer’s going to miss a little bit of time himself with a hamstring issue. The Mets did add Bassitt from the A’s, and they signed Marte and Canha and Eduardo Escobar, but with Marcus Stroman and Syndergaard leaving town, there’s flow in both directions. You probably shouldn’t trust them. But that goes for trusting them to be bad, too.
Philadelphia Phillies
FanGraphs projected record: 87-75
Want to sound smart? Say that you think people are sleeping on the Phillies. At least, outside of Philadelphia. Then, acknowledge there are “question marks.” “Question marks” can cover so much. The Phils did sign Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, leaving Cubs fans salivating. Brad Miller left for Texas. They’ve got some great bats, an ace in Aaron Nola, and we’ll see what else.
San Francisco Giants
FanGraphs projected record: 85-77
The winners of the Rodón bidding, the Giants lose Gausman but add some more veteran upside projects in the form of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. They also brought in Joc Pederson, often a clubhouse favorite. Maybe they’ll fall to earth this year. Maybe they know things we don’t.
St. Louis Cardinals
FanGraphs projected record: 83-79
The Cardinals added Matz and did little else, besides the marketing move of bringing in Albert Pujols. They could get aggressive as the season goes on, and they’re in position to inherit the Central if something goes wrong for the Brewers, which is a smart place to be if you’re not in a position to go all-in.
Miami Marlins
FanGraphs projected record: 82-80
The Marlins picked up Wendle from the Rays and Jacob Stallings from the Pirates (I should probably say—I have no scientific method for determining which transactions to list and which to ignore in this). They signed Jorge Soler, negative-fWAR World Series hero, and Avisaíl García, perennially overlooked outfield stud. This year more than most, you could see it happening for the Marlins, and the Marlins made the NLDS in 2020.
Cincinnati Reds
FanGraphs projected record: 75-87
The Reds sold off Suárez, Winker, Gray, and Barnhart. They lost Castellanos to free agency. They did sign Tommy Pham, but this is a franchise in retreat.
Chicago Cubs
FanGraphs projected record: 75-87
The Cubs got a lot better in free agency, adding Seiya Suzuki from Japan and Marcus Stroman from Queens, but they were building from scratch, much like the Rangers. Probably a quiet year in Wrigleyville.
Washington Nationals
FanGraphs projected record: 70-92
The Nationals were quieter in their acquisitions, but they did make a few moves, adding veterans César Hernández and Nelson Cruz. Short-term stuff while their farm system develops.
Pittsburgh Pirates
FanGraphs projected record: 69-93
Man, there is just about nothing here. Not a single move worth mentioning. The Pirates have a well-stocked farm system they’re waiting on. Wait, they shall.
Arizona Diamondbacks
FanGraphs projected record: 69-93
Quiet here as well, but again, the farm system is busy.
Colorado Rockies
FanGraphs projected record: 68-94
The Rockies traded Raimel Tapia for Randal Grichuk and signed Kris Bryant and José Iglesias. Video game simulation of an offseason.
***
Overall, I think you could categorize the teams as follows:
Playoff Locks (5)
- Los Angeles
- Toronto
- Atlanta
- New York (AL)
- Houston
Probably Playoffs (3)
- Milwaukee
- San Diego
- Chicago (AL)
Upside, Downside (7)
- New York (NL)
- Boston
- Philadelphia
- Tampa Bay
- San Francisco
- Anaheim
- Minnesota
There if Something Happens (3)
- St. Louis
- Miami
- Seattle
Bad, But Maybe (6)
- Cleveland
- Detroit
- Kansas City
- Cincinnati
- Texas
- Chicago (NL)
Explicitly Rebuilding (6)
- Washington
- Oakland
- Pittsburgh
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Baltimore
“Lock” is a generous term, of course, but it’s hard to see those five up top missing the playoffs, and it’s easy to see any of the 25 behind them missing the playoffs. The top 15 teams are all believable World Series champions. When you get to the Cardinals, it becomes a stretch. The bottom twelve all have uphill battles, but the slope is variable, and some teams (the Reds, the A’s) are falling back while others (the Orioles, the Tigers) are surging forward and still others (the Cubs, the Nationals, the Rangers) have hit their bottom and are starting to take their forward steps.
It’s a fun season ahead. Happy Opening Day.
