On the morning of May 24th, the Nationals were in 14th place in the National League. They were a game and a half ahead of the Marlins for last place, and they trailed the Giants by two and a half for 13th.
Since then, they’ve gone 26-10. They now have the third-best win percentage in the NL. They’ve passed the Phillies, and they’re only six games back of the Braves for first in the East.
What happened? After two months of seemingly everything going wrong, everything—for a change—went right.
The Nationals Got Healthy
Anthony Rendon was activated on May 7th. Juan Soto rejoined the team on May 11th. Trea Turner came back on May 17th. Tony Sipp returned on May 20th. Matt Adams left the IL on May 22nd. Aníbal Sánchez was deemed healthy on May 29th.
While injuries are common in baseball, they’d hit the Nationals especially hard, and as the roster began to resemble its form in injury-free video games, the Nationals started winning. Looking ahead, they got Ryan Zimmerman back last week as well.
The Schedule Broke Favorably
The NL East plays the AL Central in interleague contests this year, which, combined with the Nationals’ annual dates against the Orioles, give the Nationals a season-long schedule easier than that of much of their National League competition. But the last 36 games have been especially favorable, as only eight of their games have come against teams with winning records (five against the Braves, three against the Phillies), and 13 have come against teams in the ‘completely hopeless’ category of the MLB (ten against the Marlins, three against the Tigers). The average winning percentage (as of today) of their opponents starting May 24th is .460. It’s favorable, but the Nationals deserve credit for taking advantage of it. An average team, logic states, would have won about 54% of their games over such a stretch, given the .460 winning percentage of opponents and the nearly one-to-one ratio of home games to away games. The Nationals have won 72% of these games.
The Bullpen Stepped It Up
Through May 23rd, the Nationals bullpen had a 7.02 ERA and a 5.35 FIP, good for the fourth-worst fWAR in the MLB (and, as that ERA might have you suspect, what I’m guessing was the worst bWAR). Over this recent stretch, the ERA is still ugly—5.01—but it’s better, and the 3.91 FIP suggests the struggles can be attributed more to bad luck than actual poor pitching. Which actually makes the future even scarier for the Braves, not to mention teams like the Cubs, Phillies, and Brewers who have to contend with the possibility of the Nationals pushing them out of a playoff appearance or into more road games than they’d like (at this point, I think it’s fair to label the Dodgers untouchable atop the National League, at least for the time being).
Max Scherzer Dominated
The best pitcher in baseball’s numbers were good through May 23rd: 3.41 ERA, 2.45 FIP, six and a half innings per start. But since that inflection point, he’s allowed only six runs in seven starts, posting the following: 1.06 ERA, 1.60 FIP, seven and a third innings per start.
Anthony Rendon Kept Being Great
Rendon’s numbers over this stretch are actually worse than his season totals, but even below-average Rendon is one of the best hitters in the league, slashing .299/.376/.599 with a 144 wRC+ (his season-to-date wRC+ is 156). Having that bat in the middle of the lineup, producing as consistently as Rendon as produced, is—obviously—good.
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There have been more factors than these, but these are the pillars. The Nationals are still behind where they’d like to be—they envisioned themselves leading their division, not trailing by six games—but they’ve flipped the narrative, and after this weekend’s series against the Royals, they’ll more likely than not enter the All-Star Break in playoff position. And what would have been reasonable goals for the team in the first place—winning the East, securing home-field advantage in the Division Series, competing for a World Series title—are back in their sights.
After just 36 games.
