If last night was about wetting the beak, today’s about getting hydrated. We have a full day of NIT action ahead of us, from a noon (Eastern) tip in Johnson City to late-night action at The Pit. Here’s every game that matters to the NIT, how much it matters, and how to conduct your affairs in a way that creates for you the most spiritual fulfillment as we await that blessed Round of 32.
Today’s is a thinner slate than yesterday’s, but it packs a bigger punch. We’ve got a potential automatic bid waiting to be wrapped up, and you don’t even need to know the ASUN’s tiebreakers this time to know how it’ll happen. We’ve got the regular season finale for tantalizing VCU, and the Arch Madness opener for tantalizing Drake. The Mountain West is rolling like the tectonic plates which made the mountains which made it.
“NIT Leverage” in this table below is how far the NIT probabilities can swing, combined, for the teams involved. It’s not the perfect measurement of NIT impact, but NIT impact is hard to measure. Can you measure love? Can you measure dignity? Can you measure the dreams of a dreamer?
| Team 1 | Team 2 | NIT Leverage |
| UNLV | New Mexico | 0.65 |
| Gardner-Webb | High Point | 0.55 |
| Southern Illinois | Drake | 0.49 |
| Murray State | Bradley | 0.23 |
| Dayton | VCU | 0.13 |
| Colorado State | Boise State | 0.09 |
| Buffalo | Akron | 0.05 |
| Valparaiso | Northern Iowa | 0.05 |
#1 (Game of the NITe): UNLV at New Mexico
UNLV: 62% NIT-likely with a win, 27% with a loss
New Mexico: 3% NIT-likely with a win, 34% with a loss
How to watch: Honestly, you should probably go to The Pit and watch this one in person. Whether you’re in the Albuquerque area or not. (10:00 PM EST, CBSSN)
New Mexico’s NIT hopes are on their last legs. UNLV’s aren’t looking great. If Richard Pitino’s going to keep his dad from stealing the spotlight this postseason, there’s one thing he has to do.
Go on Late Night with Seth Meyers.
Or…Late NITe?
#2: Big South Quarterfinal – High Point vs. Gardner-Webb
High Point: 44% NIT-likely with a win, 99% with a loss
How to watch: Take a long lunch. (12:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
In the first daytime game, High Point is trying to wrap things up early. Lose, and they get the inaugural automatic bid of the KNIT era. I’ve recently been informed that High Point is a cult. As someone trying to start an NIT cult, I have to ask: Do cults get along with other cults?
(The probability’s only 99% with a loss just in case they don’t accept the invite. I assume our model’s worried about the cult thing.)
#3: MVC Quarterfinal – Drake vs. Southern Illinois
Drake: 50% NIT-likely with a win, 99% with a loss
How to watch: Extend that long lunch by an hour. (1:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
There is a way for Drake to lose the Missouri Valley Tournament and still miss the NIT. There’s also a way to stick your junk inside a toaster from underneath, but we wouldn’t recommend that either. Take care of business, Drake. Take the bad loss, lock in your NIT spot, and stoke a little SIU nostalgia while you’re at it. Bruce Weber used to be a young man.
#4: MVC Quarterfinal – Bradley vs. Murray State
Bradley: 70% NIT-likely with a win, 93% with a loss
How to watch: You already took a three-hour lunch. Why not just start drinking and keep drinking until you’re courageous enough to confront the bartender about the bar not having ESPN+? (7:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
Bradley, the second-winningest NIT program of all time (going by championships but also maybe wins, who knows), is not guaranteed the MVC’s exempt bid if they lose this tournament. They’re also not guaranteed an at-large bid if they lose and Drake loses too. That’s probably where this is headed, though, so why don’t you fellas do Steve Prohm a solid? Everybody says he’s a really nice guy.
#5: Dayton at VCU
Dayton: 86% NIT-likely with a win, 90% with a loss
VCU: 41% NIT-likely with a win, 51% with a loss
How to watch: Sitting on the curb of a gas station eating gas station sushi, waiting for the hangover to kick in. (7:00 PM EST, ESPN2)
This is why we measure NIT leverage. In a less knowledgeable time, I might have suggested planning your night around this game. In reality, though, it’s a tuneup. Dayton and VCU are both in strong NIT position. It all depends on what they do next week in D.C.
(Losing wouldn’t hurt VCU, though.)
#6: Colorado State at Boise State
Colorado State: 82% NIT-likely with a win, 86% with a loss
Boise State: 79% NIT-likely with a win, 84% with a loss
How to watch: Quietly, so as to not wake your 16 chinchillas. (10:00 PM EST, FS1)
Our model’s probably understating the leverage here, because others seem to believe Boise State has an NCAA T*urnament shot. Not us, Boise! We would never use those kinds of scare tactics.
#7: Buffalo at Akron
Akron: 64% NIT-likely with a win, 69% with a loss
How to watch: Take notes on a yellow legal pad. Never reference those notes again. (7:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
Tune-up for the MAC Tournament, which feels like it should have a better name than MAC Tournament.
#8: MVC Quarterfinal – Northern Iowa vs. Valparaiso
Northern Iowa: 6% NIT-likely with a win, 1% with a loss
How to watch: From behind the bar after returning from the gas station, deposing the bartender (by vote, not violence), and using the manager’s credit card to set them up with a personal ESPN+ subscription. (9:30 PM EST, ESPN+)
UNI’s got a tiny window where they can get an at-large to this thing. We’re never ones to stomp on a team’s belief.
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