It’s another week without a matchup between contenders, or between factors, or between contenders and factors. There are two teams playing each other who are at least in our perceived lanes, but it’s mostly a cold war. And a proxy war, to an extent.
The Could-Be-Big Ones
We’re using a few dichotomies to evaluate the College Football Playoff picture. One is that of contenders and factors, where contenders—Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State—are teams it’s reasonable to think will make the playoff and factors—Alabama, Cincinnati, Oregon—are teams it’s reasonable to think could make the playoff. Another is that of paths that have been trodden before, where nine teams—Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest—still have a chance at a nearly-100% successful path to the playoff, that of winning a Power Five conference with one or zero losses; while one other team—Notre Dame—has a path to going 11-1 as an effective Power Five team, which is where a few other playoff appearers have found their door. The third is that of lanes, where there are effectively ten lanes various teams currently occupy that, from what we can tell, could end up being one of the four playoff lanes. With this lane perspective, five are for Power Five conference champions, two are for prospective 12-1 Power Five runners-up (these are basically alternate lanes for Georgia and Oklahoma), and three are for Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and a hypothetical two-loss SEC non-champion. Most of the lanes have some uncertainty to them. Many are at risk of closing this week. But it’s this last one, that of the hypothetical two-loss SEC non-champion, where we get our closest thing to a single-elimination game this week. Texas A&M goes to Oxford. We’ll start with that, then highlight the others where there’s a decent chance we see some shakeups.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi – 7:00 PM EST, ESPN
The Aggies have the win over Alabama, but losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Mississippi’s only lost to the Crimson Tide and Auburn, but their best vanquished opponent was probably Arkansas. A&M’s getting more attention, because of the theory that their head-to-head could vault them in over Alabama should Nick Saban’s team finish 11-2, but the more likely case for each of these is that they’ll be flying standby, basically hoping that the field self-immolates enough for the committee to consider choosing a third SEC team behind Alabama and the Dawgs.
That said, perception and narrative matter, and blowout wins do good things in both those and in rating systems. The biggest way for this to make an impact is if the margin is wide. The incentive’s there for the victor to run the score all the way up.
Michigan @ Penn State – 12:00 PM EST, ABC
At the moment, the narrowest favorite of the teams in the mix is Michigan, who goes to Penn State with a whole lot to play for. The Wolverines, like many of these programs, seem to have a cut and dried situation: Win out, they’re in. Lose, they’re done. If they can walk away from State College intact, they’ll be just one win at Maryland away from a do-or-die rendezvous with Ohio State.
North Carolina State @ Wake Forest – 7:30 PM EST, ACCN
Wake took their first loss of the season last week, but they might not be dead just yet. They could still technically finish 12-1, and a one-loss Power Five champion has only missed the playoff once (there have been 15 teams that have fit this description in the playoff’s history). Conference championships matter, and the ACC, by definition if not play, is a Power Five league.
Oh, also? The Atlantic Division championship is probably at stake here.
Oklahoma @ Baylor – 12:00 PM EST, FOX
Want an indication of where the Sooners are at? They’re currently favored by less than a touchdown in Waco. Baylor isn’t bad, but this is not an OU that’s skipping through the Big 12, even if they’re 9-0.
The opportunity, though, is there. Blow out the Bears, and Oklahoma will get some love. I’m not sure they have a loss to give, but like Wake Forest entering last week, they might.
Notre Dame @ Virginia – 7:30 PM EST, ABC
In the last of our one-score spreads, the Irish go to Charlottesville looking to make a statement themselves. One of the biggest things holding Notre Dame back in our model is their Adjusted Point Differential (APD), our proxy for things like advanced ratings and the eye test. It’s a bit more complex than this, but basically, Notre Dame hasn’t won by enough points. Like many of these teams, they should look for style, though surviving is obviously the first priority.
The Might-Be-Big Ones
Using our widest definition of the mix, which is teams that are in one of our ten lanes, the expected number of losses from the thirteen playoff-relevant schools is 3.95 (using SP+). Of those 3.95, 2.86 come from the six teams above, with a 100% chance at least one of the five loses and a 92% chance at least two go down. The corollary to that, then, is that we should get one loss from the other seven, and the chance of a loss from at least one of these seven teams, each of which are favored by two scores or more, is 71%. In order of probability of loss:
Maryland @ Michigan State – 4:00 PM EST, FOX
The Spartans go to Columbus next week, which probably means this is the last hurrah for them in the playoff picture. They’ll try to bounce back from the Purdue loss at home against the Terps, who are trying to keep their bowl eligibility question from coming down to a trip to Rutgers.
TCU @ Oklahoma State – 8:00 PM EST, FOX
Oklahoma State can probably make the Big 12 Championship if they just go 2-1 over these final three, which would be rather manageable (they visit Texas Tech next week, then host Oklahoma after Thanksgiving). This is a key one, though, and it’s of course likely necessary to keep their playoff chances alive. Oklahoma, paradoxically, probably wants them to win too. Out of OK State, Iowa State, and Baylor, the Pokes grade out the most poorly in betting rankings.
Washington State @ Oregon – 10:30 PM EST, ESPN
Pac-12 After Dark, and with some oomph.
Wazzu’s had a strange year even by Wazzu standards, with their head coach opting to lose his job rather than be vaccinated against the coronavirus. They’ve only played twice since Nick Rolovich left town, but they’re 1-1 in those games and 5-4 overall, with two of their four losses, including the recent one to BYU, coming by a field goal or less.
In other words, against a team as mediocre as Oregon, they might be competitive. That, or Oregon might show us they aren’t as mediocre as they appear.
Georgia @ Tennessee – 3:30 PM EST, CBS
It’s one of Georgia’s toughest tests of the year, playing a team whose only unranked loss came to Florida back when Florida had yet to devolve into a dumpster fire. The Vols aren’t good, but they aren’t that bad. Georgia will probably pummel them, but it might not turn out easy.
Purdue @ Ohio State – 3:30 PM EST, ABC
Want a reflection of how good Ohio State is? They’re a three-touchdown favorite over a team that just beat Michigan State.
That might say more about MSU than the Buckeyes, but it says something about the Buckeyes. And one possibility, with this being one of just three ranked matchups this week and therefore rather visible, is that this is finally the week Ohio State jumps Oregon, taking away the Ducks’ shield from the field.
Cincinnati @ South Florida – Friday, 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2
Cincinnati, like others without a shot at a Power Five title, needs some style points. It might be a bad night to be USF.
Then again, it should have been a bad day to be Tulsa last Saturday, and that didn’t go great for the Bearcats.
New Mexico State @ Alabama – 12:00 PM EST, SECN
Finally, the Crimson Tide host NMSU, who does have a win, by eight, over current MEAC favorite South Carolina State. SP+ gives Alabama a 100% chance of victory.
Three More Fun Ones
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh – Thursday, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN
The week starts tonight, with Pitt hosting the Tar Heels. UNC isn’t in much danger of missing a bowl, and they don’t have much hope of winning the Coastal, but it’s an opportunity to salvage a bit more respectability out of a disappointing season, and it comes against Pitt, the current ACC favorite.
Minnesota @ Iowa – 3:30 PM EST, BTN
There are four teams tied at 4-2 right now in the Big Ten West. There are these two; Wisconsin, who hosts Northwestern; and Purdue. The likeliest outcome, then, is that the winner of this game is tied with Wisconsin atop the division with two games to play. Iowa lost the head-to-head with the Badgers, but with Wisconsin hosting Nebraska and then visiting the Gophers, the Hawkeyes still have a Big Ten title shot (as does Minnesota, whose path is clearer). Should be a close one. Should be an impactful one.
Nevada @ San Diego State – 10:30 PM EST, CBSSN
In the Mountain West, this might be the West division championship. Line’s only a field goal.
The FCS
Holy Cross @ Fordham – 1:00 PM EST, ESPN+
South Dakota State @ South Dakota – 2:00 PM EST, ESPN+
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State – 3:00 PM EST, ESPN+
James Madison @ William & Mary – 3:30 PM EST
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls – 4:00 PM EST, ESPN3
Eastern Washington @ UC-Davis – 8:00 PM EST, ESPN+
Over in the playoff-playing part of the FCS, we’ve got UC-Davis trying to keep their conference title share hopes alive while I’d imagine EWU holds out some hope of a postseason bye. Not sure how the tiebreakers work for the Aggies’ hopes of the automatic bid. South Dakota State has a rivalry game with South Dakota that should have large seeding implications, as well as playoff implications overall for the Coyotes. Northern Iowa and Missouri State try to lock up postseason bids. James Madison tries to keep pace with Villanova (who beat them head-to-head), while William & Mary looks to get back on their feet and into a CAA title shot themselves. Big one in the Southland race between Incarnate Word and Nicholls, who’s trying to sneak into the playoff with a frantic final two games. Holy Cross and Fordham are each undefeated in the Patriot League with one to play after this week.
Yale @ Princeton – 1:00 PM EST, ESPN+
In the Ivy League, the winner between Yale and Princeton will probably get a share of the Ivy League title, if they award shares. Each lost to likely champion Dartmouth. Nothing too big in the MEAC or SWAC, as far as I can tell.
Viewing Schedule
Oklahoma/Baylor’s the biggest deal in the early slot, with Purdue/Ohio State and Georgia/Tennessee holding potential in the afternoon but nothing clearly enormous in the way of significance. In primetime, Texas A&M/Mississippi should be the best game, though Oklahoma State and Notre Dame are definitely interesting and face tests (Virginia’s fun to watch, too). After dark, it’s all eyes on Eugene.
***
Overall, it’s mostly a question of how much attrition we get. In one of the tamer scenarios, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Mississippi all lose, taking us down to eight lanes but leaving the contenders and factors intact. In one of the busier scenarios, Michigan, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State also lose, closing two more lanes and making us ask a lot of questions about the Sooners’ viability. In a possibly-20%-likely scenario, Georgia falls to Tennessee, and we don’t know what to believe anymore (I think they might still be ranked 1st). Much to come. Starting tonight in the ACC.
