Last year, fourteen power conference teams won ten or more games. Eleven of those fourteen made the playoff, including three of the six with exactly ten wins. Every power conference team with eleven or more wins made it. Every team with nine or fewer wins did not make it.
As we enter the second year of this expanded playoff format, we got curious if those numbers will be the norm: Does eleven wins put you in? Does ten give you a 50/50 shot? For answers, we turn to our model’s latest simulations, checking the numbers all 28 power conference teams with at least a 10% playoff shot.
(We excluded non-power conference teams because their playoff route is so dependent on winning their conference championship. We excluded teams with less than a 10% playoff shot because the sample size starts getting too small with those to feel like our numbers have any accuracy.)
In alphabetical order, here come each of those 28 team’s playoff probabilities if they win nine, ten, eleven, or twelve games before the bracket goes final. We didn’t include 13–0, because that means the team in question won its conference championship. We similarly didn’t include 12–1 for teams who already have one loss.
Alabama
- Nine wins: 29%
- Ten wins: 81%
- Eleven wins: 99%
Arizona State
- Nine wins: 2%
- Ten wins: 36%
- Eleven wins: 94%
Auburn
- Nine wins: 3%
- Ten wins: 41%
- Eleven wins: 90%
- Twelve wins: 100%
BYU
- Nine wins: 4%
- Ten wins: 48%
- Eleven wins: 92%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Clemson
- Nine wins: 5%
- Ten wins: 46%
- Eleven wins: 93%
Georgia
- Nine wins: 20%
- Ten wins: 82%
- Eleven wins: 98%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Georgia Tech
- Nine wins: 1%
- Ten wins: 20%
- Eleven wins: 80%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Illinois
- Nine wins: 4%
- Ten wins: 53%
- Eleven wins: 96%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Indiana
- Nine wins: 4%
- Ten wins: 56%
- Eleven wins: 96%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Iowa State
- Nine wins: 0%
- Ten wins: 15%
- Eleven wins: 73%
- Twelve wins: 99%
Louisville
- Nine wins: 1%
- Ten wins: 28%
- Eleven wins: 85%
- Twelve wins: 100%
LSU
- Nine wins: 6%
- Ten wins: 60%
- Eleven wins: 96%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Miami (FL)
- Nine wins: 2%
- Ten wins: 36%
- Eleven wins: 88%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Mississippi
- Nine wins: 3%
- Ten wins: 48%
- Eleven wins: 93%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Missouri
- Nine wins: 1%
- Ten wins: 33%
- Eleven wins: 88%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Nebraska
- Nine wins: 0%
- Ten wins: 23%
- Eleven wins: 84%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Notre Dame
- Nine wins: 14%
- Ten wins: 73%
- Eleven wins: 100%
Ohio State
- Nine wins: 27%
- Ten wins: 88%
- Eleven wins: 100%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Oklahoma
- Nine wins: 21%
- Ten wins: 81%
- Eleven wins: 97%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Oregon
- Nine wins: 34%
- Ten wins: 91%
- Eleven wins: 100%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Penn State
- Nine wins: 23%
- Ten wins: 87%
- Eleven wins: 99%
- Twelve wins: 100%
South Carolina
- Nine wins: 4%
- Ten wins: 54%
- Eleven wins: 95%
- Twelve wins: 100%
TCU
- Nine wins: 2%
- Ten wins: 30%
- Eleven wins: 88%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Tennessee
- Nine wins: 3%
- Ten wins: 44%
- Eleven wins: 91%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Texas
- Nine wins: 17%
- Ten wins: 71%
- Eleven wins: 99%
Texas Tech
- Nine wins: 1%
- Ten wins: 22%
- Eleven wins: 82%
- Twelve wins: 100%
USC
- Nine wins: 22%
- Ten wins: 86%
- Eleven wins: 100%
- Twelve wins: 100%
Utah
- Nine wins: 1%
- Ten wins: 26%
- Eleven wins: 84%
- Twelve wins: 100%
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