A few weeks ago, Joc Pederson went on a tear. The Cubs outfielder, one of the team’s more significant offseason acquisitions, hammered five home runs in six games, opening Spring Training on fire. Since then, the lefty has cooled off, but he still sits sixth among qualified batters in Spring Training OPS. This is exciting for the Chicago Cubs.
How exciting is it, though?
The conventional wisdom on Spring Training stats is that they don’t matter, and as far as conventional wisdom goes, that’s largely true. Spring Training stats don’t matter much. But as Neil Paine outlined in 2014 over at FiveThirtyEight, it isn’t entirely meaningless predictivity-wise.
Two things to remember, then, concerning Pederson’s strong Spring Training (so far):
1. Pederson is good.
Pederson has a career wRC+ of 118, meaning Pederson has been, over his career, 18% more productive than the average major league hitter. It’s not outside of his normal bounds to have a 15-game stretch this hot.
2. It’s better to have a good Spring Training than a bad one.
While Pederson’s strong spring doesn’t necessarily portend an MVP-candidate season, you’d still rather hit well in the Cactus League than the alternative. It can’t hurt.
