How Concerning Are Iowa State’s Northern Iowa Struggles?

The Reaction:

There’s a positive spin and a negative spin from Iowa State’s 16-10 escape from Northern Iowa’s clutches yesterday. Let’s start with the negative.

Iowa State, an alleged playoff contender, only beat an FCS opponent by six points.

Now, the positive.

Iowa State’s win probability never dipped below 75% or so. Brock Purdy only threw five incompletions. The offense didn’t turn the ball over. The defense did its job. The team ran its most basic offense imaginable, giving Iowa little to look at for next week. And for whatever it’s worth, Northern Iowa is a team that drags you down like that. They play low-scoring games. It’s their thing.

Overall, the takeaway is probably somewhere in between the two spins. Iowa State should have been able to pulverize Northern Iowa, even running that basic offense. The offensive line did not create the space we would have liked it to create, and especially came up short in the red zone. But it was a win, and while it lowers expectations for next week, it doesn’t completely change them. I’m still seeing the Cyclones as a favorite where lines for that game are listed (in the four-point range, which implies the teams are seen as equals prior to considering home field advantage).

A friend of mine, in a conversation about Clemson on Friday and how they might lose because they’d prioritize maximizing their national championship probability over beating Georgia, talked about a line a coach of his had about not sacrificing the long-term for the short-term. There’s an argument to be made that this Iowa game is significant enough that any sacrifice made in the UNI game, aside from losing it, would be worth it if it could provide the Cyclones with an advantage. I’m not sure this is the way to approach that—I think rest for the starters may have been more important than game film—but Matt Campbell’s a better football coach than I am.

In short: Iowa State probably isn’t as good as we hoped. But this wasn’t a terrible game.

The Big Picture:

Success for Iowa State this year is making the Big 12 Championship and beating Iowa. Winning the Big 12 may become part of that definition. Making the playoff may become part of that definition. But right now, you need to beat the Hawkeyes, and you need to make the Big 12 Championship.

I hadn’t put a definition on this before yesterday, mostly because I didn’t think to. I was of the mindset that said, “Hey, Iowa State’s going to be good, this is going to be fun.” That’s a fair mindset to have. But if you’re going to set expectations, set reasonable ones. Making the Big 12 Championship and beating Iowa is a reasonable set of goals for this team. The median outcome is less than that—it does include beating Iowa, but I’d estimate the Cyclones to be less than 50% likely to make the Big 12 title game—but that’s a reasonable set of goals, and it’s close to a reasonable set of expectations.

Relevant Results:

The Big 12 went 9-1 as a whole, with some struggles here and there (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State) but mostly competent displays. Texas looked good, which is helpful for those playoff hopes but concerning for those make-the-Big-12-Championship hopes. It wasn’t a great week for the conference, mostly because of Iowa State and Oklahoma, but it wasn’t a bad week.

Meanwhile, Iowa kicked the shit out of Indiana.

It’s definitely possible that Indiana’s bad. Last year was a strange year, and Indiana was particularly strange, doing things like mounting that late massive comeback against Ohio State and beating Penn State on a series of Penn State mistakes unlike anything I’d seen in recent memory (I hadn’t watched much Big Ten football lately heading into that one). But regardless, Iowa played like they were the best team in the Big Ten West, and they well might be the best team in the Big Ten West. They well might be the second-best team in the Big Ten.

There are a few takeaways from this: One is that this could be an awesome year for the state of Iowa, if anyone cares about such things. One is that this is the biggest Cy-Hawk game…ever? One is that this makes the opportunity that much bigger for Iowa State in a general sense. One is that this makes the opportunity that much bigger for Iowa State in a specific sense—there are playoff scenarios in which Iowa State’s a 12-1 Big 12 Champion with a win over Iowa that could prove crucial in comparisons with, say, an 11-2 non-SEC Champion Georgia, and these scenarios are narrow but they do exist. The big one, of course, is that next week’s going to be very difficult.

Next Week:

I’ll write more about this on…probably Friday, but there’s this existential piece of college football, and with a rivalry like Iowa State-Iowa, it’s such a cultural thing. This is big, big stuff. Tribal stuff. So if you’re feeling a little queasy thinking about next week, or if you’re feeling a little bloodthirsty thinking about next week, you’re not alone.

It’s going to be so, so hard to beat Iowa.

It’s going to feel so, so good if Iowa State does it.