We almost got a lane closure. Except…did we? Would Alabama have still had a path to the playoff had they lost to Auburn? We’ll never know for sure, and there’s an element here where if you view things in a somewhat extremely non-binary way, you could say an Alabama win in four overtimes is only marginally better than an Alabama loss in four overtimes. All that said, Alabama won, and the second SEC lane remains pretty firmly open.
It’s likely to be a question, especially for Alabama, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame fans: What happens if Alabama loses to Georgia? And how much does margin, in this hypothetical instance, matter? Georgia doesn’t care—they’re playing for seeding at this point (we just plugged a 100-point Georgia loss into our model alongside every other game going according to the Vegas spread, and it told us Georgia would still be ranked ahead of Notre Dame and Oklahoma State). Michigan doesn’t care—if they win, they’re in. Everyone else? There’s a risk they’re either 1) crowded out by an 11-2 Alabama or 2) relegated to the fourth seed and an undesirable opening matchup with Georgia by an 11-2 Alabama. We’ve never had a two-loss team make the playoff. We’ve also only done this seven times.
There are other potential two-loss contenders. Each of the non-SEC Power Five leagues could end up with a two-loss champion, opening up at least one scenario where a two-loss team has to make it. Overall, though, it’s Alabama in the spotlight. And Saturday’s struggles surely didn’t help their case.
Here’s how our model sees tomorrow night’s rankings stacking up (if you’re on your phone, tilt it sideways and the table will resolve—sorry for the technical issues there):
| Expected Ranking | LW Ranking | Team | Est. Ranking Score | FPA | Exp. Ranking w/o FPA |
| 1 | 1 | Georgia | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | Cincinnati | 92.9 | 2.2 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | Michigan | 92.7 | 1.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | Alabama | 91.7 | 1.9 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | Notre Dame | 88.6 | -1.3 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | Oklahoma State | 87.5 | 0.9 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | Ohio State | 86.7 | -0.3 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | Mississippi | 82.2 | 3.8 | 15 |
| 9 | 8 | Baylor | 82.2 | 0.6 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | Oregon | 80.7 | 3.6 | 19 |
| 11 | 12 | Michigan State | 80.6 | -0.4 | 9 |
| 12 | 13 | Brigham Young | 79.4 | 0.7 | 13 |
| 13 | 17 | Pittsburgh | 78.3 | 0.0 | 16 |
| 14 | 21 | San Diego State | 78.0 | -0.4 | 14 |
| 15 | 18 | Wake Forest | 78.0 | -1.0 | 11 |
| 16 | 23 | Clemson | 77.3 | -0.9 | 17 |
| 17 | 16 | Iowa | 76.9 | -1.9 | 12 |
| 18 | 10 | Oklahoma | 76.6 | -2.8 | 10 |
| 19 | 24 | Houston | 76.1 | -1.6 | 18 |
| 20 | 20 | NC State | 75.2 | 1.2 | 25 |
| 21 | 19 | Utah | 74.9 | -1.3 | 21 |
| 22 | 14 | Wisconsin | 74.3 | -1.5 | 23 |
| 23 | 25 | Arkansas | 73.9 | 5.9 | 29 |
| 24 | NR | Appalachian State | 73.4 | -0.4 | 26 |
| 25 | NR | Louisiana-Lafayette | 73.2 | -3.6 | 20 |
| NR | 15 | Texas A&M | 73.0 | 5.1 | 30 |
| NR | NR | Purdue | 72.8 | -1.5 | 24 |
The big questions, then:
Will Oklahoma State jump Notre Dame?
It’s certainly possible. The two are close in the rankings. From afar, there’s a sense where this is irrelevant: If Oklahoma State beats Baylor on Saturday, they’re jumping Notre Dame. But if the Irish are still ahead of them tomorrow night, there’ll at least be some hope on this front in South Bend.
How far will Ohio State fall?
Looking at how close our model has Ohio State to the Irish, and taking into account the committee’s instructions to choose the “best” teams, it’s not impossible we’ll see the Buckeyes slot in fifth, or sixth but only behind Oklahoma State. After all, Ohio State would be favored against pretty much anybody not named Georgia or Alabama on a neutral field, were the game happening this weekend. That even probably includes Michigan, sample size of one aside. If this happens, Notre Dame is demonstrably out. Because Ohio State is already rather demonstrably out.
Where will Cincinnati, Alabama, and Michigan stack up?
Each of these teams is, in all likelihood, in with a win, but Cincinnati would feel a lot better if they could stay ahead of the Wolverines heading into the final week and get ahead of Alabama. It would take some of the questioning out on their side, and on our model’s side it’d be key because our data doesn’t suggest Group of Five teams receive any significant conference championship boost like Power Five champions do.
One note on this: I tweeted during the noon games on Saturday that Michigan would leapfrog Cincinnati if results held. Results did hold, but later in the day, Michigan’s second-best win (over Wisconsin) got a good bit worse while Cincinnati’s best win (over Notre Dame) got a little better. It’s close, to our model’s eyes. It’s close.
What about Mississippi and Baylor?
Mississippi had the more impressive performance of the two, who were presumably rather close coming into the weekend. This doesn’t directly matter—beat Oklahoma State and Baylor jumps Mississippi—but it would give us a clue as to where Baylor sits in comparison to Notre Dame, and whether they could jump the Irish with an impressive showing in Arlington.
What about the other two-loss Power Five potential champions?
Oregon, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Iowa are all also going to be in these rankings, with each playing for a chaos bid. The order of those schools will provide some clues, but they aren’t guaranteed to stay lined up (though Utah being ranked behind Wake does give a clue that none of them can probably jump, say, hypothetical 11-2 Baylor).
***
Overall, it would be believable to see quite a few different orders from 2-4, and even from 2-7. But while those aren’t inconsequential, they aren’t the point. This is the point:
| Expected Ranking | Team | Est. Ranking Score |
| 1 | Georgia | 100.0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 92.8 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 91.3 |
| 4 | Oklahoma State | 86.8 |
| 5 | Alabama | 85.8 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 85.3 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 83.3 |
| 8 | Mississippi | 78.6 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 77.8 |
This is how our model expects the final rankings to line up if every game Friday and Saturday goes according to the current Vegas spread. And here’s what our model expects if you take FPA all the way out of the equation:
| Expected Ranking | Team | Est. Ranking Score |
| 1 | Georgia | 100.0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 91.4 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 89.1 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 86.6 |
| 5 | Oklahoma State | 86.0 |
| 6 | Alabama | 83.9 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 83.6 |
| 8 | Michigan State | 78.1 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 77.8 |
Basically, if all games go according to the script, our model is going to be wrong, because it disagrees with itself. In back testing it these last few years, we’ve always had a perfect record when it comes to predicting the top four, with or without FPA. That would have to change. Unless, well, unless FPA changes enough with this week’s rankings to sort some things out.
What does this tell us? Primarily, it tells us what we already know: This is probably a six-horse race. Maybe, mayyybe seven, with the seventh being Baylor (our model doesn’t currently see Baylor jumping Notre Dame, even with a win, but again—rather unprecedented). You could make a case for eleven teams—What if Iowa beats Michigan by four touchdowns?—but you’re stretching at that point. Realistically, we’re looking at Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Notre Dame. We’ll have more for you on what each needs later this week, when we’ve got the rankings from the committee.
Here’s how we got here:
Big Ten
Holy shirts and pants. Blue shirts and pants, specifically. Michigan’s offensive line completely overpowered Ohio State. Demolished the Buckeye defense. It was snowy. It was electric. It was, as a neutral party, one of the most fun semi-blowouts I’ve ever watched. What a show.
Iowa, of all teams, is in the Big Ten Championship as well, having dealt Nebraska yet another one-score loss on Friday after the Huskers entered the final minute of the third quarter ahead by 15 and entered the fourth up twelve. A 3-9 finish for Scott Frost, but so close to 7-5 or better. Making Iowa’s trip possible was Minnesota, who dispatched with Wisconsin to reclaim Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Wisconsin’s loss sends ripples outwards, lessening the probability of the West champion winning the Big Ten (Wisconsin is better than Iowa) and pulling Notre Dame back by weakening that best win of the Irish, who will now likely not have beaten a single top-20 opponent come Sunday morning.
Finally, Michigan State beat Penn State in a pretty good game. The Spartans finish 10-2. That’s impressive.
SEC
What a game by Auburn, and what a game by Alabama, in the bad way. The Tide looked impotent. There are questions. And to make matters worse for them, they may now have an unranked loss after Texas A&M went down in Baton Rouge. Aside from a Crimson Tide loss, this weekend went about as well as possible for those hoping on the Tide’s demise.
Elsewhere in the league, Georgia took care of business against Georgia Tech, Mississippi won the Egg Bowl without too much strife, and Kentucky whooped Louisville to put itself among those likely being considered to round out the top 25 tomorrow. The SEC’s going to enter the weekend with four, five, or six teams ranked, and probably exit it that way too, plus perhaps one or two depending how Group of Five championships break.
Big 12
In what turned out to be Lincoln Riley’s last game at the helm, Oklahoma lost Bedlam by four points to Oklahoma State. It was, true to the ethos of the thing, wild, with special teams foibles playing a huge role and the Pokes needing a substantial fourth-quarter comeback to take the victory. Classic Big 12 stuff all around, down to the conference favorite probably being a two-touchdown underdog if they end up the fourth seed in the playoff.
Speaking of the playoff, Baylor may now be the only thing standing in Oklahoma State’s way, and without Gerry Bohanon, the Bears barely survived Texas Tech. Survive they did, though, and they’ll enter the Big 12 Championship as quite possibly the highest-ranked challenger to the six contenders. It might not actually be that good a place to be, but it’ll probably get them some airtime.
Pac-12
Oregon took care of Oregon State, Utah took care of Colorado, BYU beat a Pac-12 team down on its luck, and we’ve got the Pac-12 Championship we’ve been expecting for a long time now. Oregon’s only a narrow underdog, and the game is not being played in Salt Lake City like the first matchup was.
ACC
After NC State gave themselves a chance with an onside kick-fueled comeback win over UNC on Friday, Wake Forest shut the door Saturday, pulverizing Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The Deacons will face Pitt for the ACC title and a trip to the Peach Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl.
Cincinnati
On Friday, Cincinnati got one of its best wins of the season, beating a now 7-5 East Carolina by three scores on the road. Houston whooped UConn the next morning, and we’ve got one combined loss between the two AAC champions. If Houston wins, they’ll likely play in the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. If Cincinnati wins, it’s really looking like they’ll go to the playoff, though it’s fair to have nightmares of Alabama holding them off and Oklahoma State jumping them.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame beat up Stanford, and their résumé is now locked. There’s an element with this team where you can’t ask for much more than what they did from Week 3 onwards, but Weeks 1 and 2 may still hold them back in the ratings systems, and they just don’t have a great win. That Cincinnati game looked winnable, and with the playoff likely to include three teams the Irish could beat, they’ll be kicking themselves for a long time for it. Could have been the clear second-ranked team. Could have been staring down a Cotton Bowl as field goal underdogs against Michigan. If they’d just played well against Cincinnati.
Conference USA
UTSA laid the biggest of eggs against North Texas and will now enter the Conference USA championship looking to get to 12-1, not 13-0. They host Western Kentucky, who smoked Marshall, and that game’s about a tossup.
Mountain West
San Diego State beat Boise State on Friday, locking up the West, and when Utah State beat New Mexico later, it didn’t matter whether or not Air Force beat UNLV (they did). Utah State won the Mountain. The Aztecs will host the Aggies on Saturday afternoon.
Sun Belt
This matchup was already decided, but Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette each won over the weekend, making it possible it’ll include two top-25 teams. The Cajuns struggled against Louisiana-Monroe, but they’re still 11-1, with their only loss coming to Texas. App State’s 10-2, having lost to ULL and the Florida edition of Miami.
MAC
In the MAC, Kent State beat the Ohio edition of Miami in overtime, stopping a RedHawk two-point conversion to emerge with the East Division title. They’ll play Northern Illinois in Detroit.
***
Two closing thoughts, and they’re related, and they’re about upsets:
The first is that Alabama and Ohio State are, in some order, probably the second and third-best teams in the nation. This is what betting odds would tell you were the thing demonstrated through spreads, and there’s a reason the house makes so much money at sportsbooks. One of those two teams is basically entirely out of the playoff picture, and the other is in deep trouble. Why? Well, great though they may be, they were inconsistent, and inconsistent at the wrong time. For a few years now, we’ve seen teams either be consistent or be inconsistent at the right time. That’s what makes a great team, and for a few years now, we’ve had legitimately great teams. Often multiple. This year, we only have one.
The second is that I would guess that if you were to ask everyone on the committee who they’d expect to win a neutral-site game between Alabama and Michigan, or Alabama and Cincinnati, or Ohio State and Michigan, or Ohio State and Cincinnati, the majority would pick Alabama and Ohio State over anyone else in the country not named Georgia. Tell them to send the four best teams to the playoff, though, and they appear unlikely to select Ohio State. This is good—it would be dumb for Ohio State to get away with multiple games like the one against Oregon and the one on Saturday while Oklahoma State and Cincinnati have done just about everything you could ask a team to do to demonstrate its worth. But it also shows that the “best teams” instruction wears no clothes. The committee isn’t picking the best teams. It’s picking the most palatable teams. That’s the best word I have for it right now.
