Oregon did it.
Oregon really did it.
Ohio State is, of course, fine.
But Oregon really did it.
***
It’s an overstatement to say Ohio State’s “fine.” They’re in trouble. As we estimated it would be on Friday, their playoff probability is now probably somewhere around 25%, with winning out a virtual necessity. The path, though, is well-paved for them to do that: The Buckeyes’ remaining road games are at Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, and Michigan; they get Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State at home (plus two buy games). No team on that list strikes fear into the heart of a reasonable Ohio Stater. Still, Penn State and Michigan appear to be tough outs, and the Big Ten Championship game will also likely feature a tough out. This is not the take-care-of-business path it is for Clemson. And there’s a chance this becomes a worse loss than Clemson’s does for Clemson.
***
For Oregon, this is program-shaking. The Ducks might not be 50% playoff-likely yet, but with three of their potential hardest opponents (Washington, whom they play in Seattle; Utah, whom they play in Salt Lake; and USC, whom they’d have maybe played in the Pac-12 Championship) suffering rough outings last night (Oregon also plays UCLA in Los Angeles, in case you’re curious what else lurks), the path looks a smidge clearer than it did in the hypotheticals on Friday. Given that the Ducks can probably afford a loss, still—it depends whom and how, it depends what the rest of the country does, it probably depends what Ohio State does from here—it’s a promising moment in addition to a thrilling one in its own right. Oregon might not be “back,” but they’re here in some fashion.
***
The top coalition of playoff contenders right now, then? It’s Alabama, and then in some order Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Clemson. All programs who’ve been there before, but at least it’s some variety, right?
Around the leagues:
Big Ten
*rips off emotional band-aid*
Iowa beat Iowa State soundly, and we now must contend with the possibility that the Hawkeyes are a playoff contender. It’s not entirely outlandish—Iowa could realistically be favored in each of its remaining games. The three that give the most pause are Penn State’s visit in October, the trip to Madison on Halloween weekend, and that potential Ohio State clash in Indianapolis. But if the Big Ten East gets a little chaotic, and if Wisconsin does fizzle, there’s a path. There’s certainly a path. That isn’t to say Iowa’s a contender just yet. It’s just to say there’s a possibility they’re a contender.
Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Michigan is looking lively, running for a staggering 343 yards last night in their dispatching of Washington. Penn State looked good beating Ball State, raising the possibility last week was just some Big Ten magic.
And elsewhere still, Purdue and Michigan State each improved to 2-0 ahead of big trips next week to Notre Dame and Miami, respectively. Neither team is much of a playoff threat, but each is definitely a threat next week, and should the Spartans in particular win, the path is there for them to get to the Michigan game at the end of next month with a spotless record, which would widen a lot of eyes (deservedly so—there’s a long way to go on that).
Big 12
Going back to the Cy-Hawk game: The Big 12 as a whole isn’t all that affected by Iowa State’s loss, and it’s possible the league’s playoff odds actually rose with that and Texas’s smothering in Fayetteville. Oklahoma’s always been the league’s best hope, and their chance of going undefeated looks better right now than it did 24 hours ago. They could also still quite possibly avoid a loss, though I wouldn’t mess with it just yet if I were the Sooners.
SEC
Speaking of divisions with a lower-than-it-was second tier, our working model of the SEC West is that after Alabama, there are four teams who might be solid: Arkansas, Mississippi, Auburn, and Texas A&M. Behind them, Mississippi State and LSU aren’t bad. This division might be a gauntlet. This division might be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide. Both those things might be true.
The A&M struggle in Boulder isn’t all that meaningful in a résumé sense—they avoided the loss, it’s early enough in the year to maybe even perversely help the narrative (I haven’t dug into this, but I’m curious if teams are helped when the committee can compare them favorably against their former selves)—but it does help inform us as to the current quality of the team from College Station, and from what we can tell, they’re likely not much better than those teams listed alongside them.
Arkansas is floating right now, and deservedly so, but their work is still cut out for them, especially given they have to play both Georgia and Alabama on the road. More a spoiler figure than a contender themselves (as is the case still for pretty much everyone outside of the five listed up top, Ohio State, and arguably a couple other programs here and there), but they’ve already spoiled one party.
It was a quiet day in the East, partially because the East is much worse than the West so there are fewer teams to care about. Big one next week in Gainesville with Alabama coming to town.
Pac-12
The losses—USC’s loss, Utah’s loss, Washington’s loss—change things, but in the latter two cases the changes aren’t that significant. The Oregon win changes things too, so overall, yeah, I guess we’re looking at a new situation here. There’s a clear Pac-12 favorite, which wasn’t the case before. It’s Oregon. UCLA and Arizona State are currently appearing to be the best-positioned in the South, but I’d be curious how that bears out in models like SP+. We still don’t know too much from results alone, which is important to note looking at the national picture as a whole.
ACC
Little to see here. Miami held off Appalachian State, the Coastal is still interesting with them and UNC and Virginia Tech, the Atlantic is still entirely uninteresting as a whole, though Florida State’s collapse was something.
Notre Dame
Speaking of Florida State…hard to take Notre Dame too seriously now, right? Two frantic wins, both over troubling foes. The schedule’s not that bad—as is often the case, the floor is high, but the ceiling is low, and this year’s ceiling could be lower than normal. The toughest games on the line right now appear to be a visit from Cincinnati, a trip to Virginia Tech, and a game in Chicago against Wisconsin. That’s a beefy lineup (it all happens over a three-week stretch starting in two weeks, too), but it could also be one that ends up with twelve combined losses.
If Notre Dame goes undefeated, they’re almost assuredly in. But depending who’s around them, if they lack a great victory, that “almost” could start carrying a lot of weight.
And the probability they go undefeated is looking rather low right now.
Group of Five Independents
BYU! Still kicking. The Cougars get Arizona State next week in Provo, and they close the regular season against USC in Los Angeles, so their possibility of beating the Pac-12 champion lives (they may have already done it). I don’t think they’re a playoff threat, but only five of their games are against non-Power Five schools, and if you find a way to have beaten a one-loss or two-loss Power Five champion, I have to imagine there are scenarios in which enough chaos elsewhere gets you in.
Keep an eye on Liberty, too. Not for the playoff, but for narratives. They have a manageable slate through the end of October, then go to Oxford to play Mississippi the first weekend in November. That could turn into a kind of big one.
American Athletic Conference
It took Cincinnati a minute, but they pulled away handily from Murray State, winning by 35 after entering the half tied at seven. In more “this is fun” news, Memphis held off Arkansas State in a 55-50 ballgame in Jonesboro.
Sun Belt
Not the best weekend for the Sun Belt—Arkansas State lost that shootout, Troy couldn’t get it done against Liberty, Louisiana-Lafayette struggled against Nicholls State. There’s no faulting of Appalachian State to be done, but beating Miami would’ve been a nice feather in the cap.
Mountain West
San Diego State pounded Arizona and has an interesting visit next weekend from Utah.
MAC
Toledo could be something in this league.
Conference USA
Games were also played involving these teams.
FCS
Not as big a week for these guys as last week was, but that Jacksonville State finish…man.
***
Plenty of intrigue again next week, with Florida hosting Alabama, Penn State hosting Auburn, and a lot of chances to gauge the legitimacy of various conference title game hopefuls (see: Tech, Virginia). We’ll see you there.
