1. You lose some.
Sometimes, you lose. The Giants are tough to beat right now. Anthony DeSclafani is tough to beat right now. Losses happen.
2. Zach Davies is fine.
It wasn’t a great outing from Davies, who got knocked around a bit, but he did leave with the score tied and the expectation, with one out and two on, that one runner would score but probably not two. Both did. Not a great outing, not a disaster, probably a good reminder that this guy’s in the middle of the rotation and not up there with Kyle Hendricks and Adbert Alzolay in terms of what should be expected.
3. The bullpen is fine.
Over the whole game, the Giants did have the lower xBA than the Cubs, with the big difference being that the Cubs didn’t draw a single walk while they yielded five. Rex Brothers gave up the Brandon Crawford home run and Dillon Maples wasn’t exactly sharp, but neither was a disaster as much as they were on the wrong end of some overdue run allowing. Also, they’re in the bottom half of the bullpen if they’re not the bottom two guys in the bullpen. And the Cubs have options. If it continues, they’re gone, and if it continues, it’ll probably be more like last night—when a game that was slipping away slid fully away—than a meaningful meltdown (unless it comes in extra innings). Overall, don’t worry too much.
4. The bats are still good.
The Cubs aren’t the only team to have a hard time against Anthony DeSclafani, and going back to xBA, they could’ve expected two or three more hits on the day. If one of those was a leadoff double for Joc Pederson in the first (xBA of .900 on that flyout), maybe Bryant still doubles, the Cubs grab the lead earlier, the pressure gets to DeSclafani, better pieces in the bullpen are used, and the win streak continues. Sometimes it doesn’t happen.
5. Good thing they swept the Padres.
If Scott Kazmir starts tonight, as seems to be the best bet, the Cubs have a solid chance. Heck, whoever starts, the Cubs have a solid chance, especially with the knowledge Kevin Gausman is going tomorrow against I-want-him-to-be-a-stud-but-that’s-unreasonable Kohl Stewart, and therefore isn’t pitching tonight. But with Gausman against Stewart tomorrow, there’s pressure on the Cubs to win today to keep a chance at a split alive, and Hendricks vs. Johnny Cueto on Sunday looks tough as well.
In other words, the most likely outcome now is probably losing this series. The Cubs can split it, and it’s reasonable to ask them to split it (the Giants aren’t that good), but going 1-3 would still mean a combined 4-3 mark against the Padres and Giants, which is what we wanted starting the week.
They all count the same, so find your wins somewhere.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers beat the Diamondbacks, 7-4. The Reds beat the Cardinals, 4-2.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cubs: 32-24, 32.1%
2. St. Louis: 31-26, 18.1%
3. Milwaukee: 30-26, 43.8%
4. Cincinnati: 25-29, 5.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 21-34, 0.0%
Still ahead by a game and a half. Freddy Peralta vs. Matt Peacock tonight in Milwaukee. Kwang Hyun Kim vs. Luis Castillo in St. Louis (tonight would be a nice evening for Castillo to figure it out).
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. San Francisco
When:
8:45 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Oracle Park
Weather:
San Francisco, which is to say temperatures in the 50’s, wind blowing out but it always does that.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. TBD
The Opponent:
If it’s Kazmir, it’s hard to get a read on what to expect. He’s only thrown five innings this year, and those were his first major league innings since 2016. Even if it is Kazmir, it’s probably a bullpen game, and the Giants’ bullpen is fine. Not great, not terrible. Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee are their top guys, each with an xERA under 2.50, but the Cubs would probably see more of the likes of Matt Wisler, José Álvarez, and Zack Littell, all of whom are, well, fine.
After we posted yesterday, Logan Webb and Mike Yastrzemski were added to the Giants’ IL, so the injuries do not stop for our friends on the Bay.
The Numbers:
No line yet, but I’d expect the Cubs to be somewhere in the +110 range, so narrow underdogs but underdogs (46%-ish), with the over/under around 8½.
Cubs News:
I neglected to mention this yesterday, but Trevor Megill has been activated from the injured list and sent to AAA. If you’ve forgotten him, he’s the 6’8” dude the Cubs trotted out a couple times at the end of April, and behind Alec Mills, who’s still rehabbing in AAA, he’s probably the next man up should the ‘pen need a next man up.
Wrigley Field’s expected to be at 100% capacity next weekend for the Cardinals series, and boy, that sounds fun, and I get a little moved thinking about what that means nationally and locally in terms of where we are vis-à-vis normalcy.
Jason Heyward and Jake Marisnick played their second game in Omaha for the Iowa Cubs. No word on when they might come back, but I’d imagine it could be as soon as today or as late as San Diego early next week, barring a setback. If they do come back, expect Nick Martini to go down to AAA, and then we still don’t know what would happen with the other roster spot. Rafael Ortega’s still out of options. Patrick Wisdom still has options but is raking. Sergio Alcántara’s out of options and is an infielder. Brad Wieck has an option but only one and he’s a lefty. Dillon Maples doesn’t have options and Rex Brothers is beyond the option stage in his career. Keegan Thompson and Tommy Nance have options but they’re both really effin’ good right now. My bet would be that Ortega would get the DFA, but I am not Jed Hoyer, and this could resolve itself in a way we don’t want it to, which is to say someone else could get hurt so knock on a lot of wood if you’re prognosticating.
Cubs Thoughts:
Spelled most of these out above, but it is fine that the Cubs lost that game. Tonight’s rather big, as much as I don’t trust Jake Arrieta (5.41 xERA, 5.17 FIP). Hopefully in a pitcher’s park he can eat up five innings, exit with the lead, and give the Cubs’ bullpen a shot at locking in a win that would set them up well for the next two days. Meaningful that the Tepera/Chafin/Kimbrel delegation got another day of rest.
