A 6-1 division runner-up is trying to catch a 4-0 conference favorite. The 4-0 conference favorite is trying to play enough games to make their conference championship. Two 9-0 teams just scheduled each other in the middle of the week, both trying to make their case for playoff inclusion.
We’re in uncharted territory, and right now, our model can only help us so much. Still, we did some asking, about both the games that matter and the games that might:
The Games that Matter
Texas A&M @ Auburn (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN)
Texas A&M isn’t great. They beat Florida on the road, yes, but their next-best performance was either getting shellacked by Alabama or holding LSU’s nose down long enough to win by 13. They only beat Vanderbilt by five points, for Pete’s sake. And while the committee may well say the win over Florida is enough, and say there’s an absence of other options, and push the Aggies in ahead of Ohio State if the Covid situation tears down more Buckeye games, they also might not.
Given how much love the committee’s shown Texas A&M, and given this game is a road game, our model’s kind of high on them, saying that a 14-point victory would be enough to pull them just about even with Ohio State even if Ohio State hardly covers their own 24-point spread. If the Aggies win by seven, which is close to the Vegas spread (yes, A&M is only a seven-point favorite against three-loss Auburn, and in case you’re wondering, Cincinnati might be a six-point favorite against A&M even if the game were in College Station), our model’s best guess is that they’d slide even closer behind Ohio State. If they lose—which, as you know if you read that parenthetical, is very possible—it’s curtains, and many will say good riddance.
BYU @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 5:30 PM EST, ESPNU)
You’ve heard about the committee snubbing BYU. But think about the Chanticleers for a minute. Coastal Carolina handed Louisiana-Lafayette its only loss. Louisiana-Lafayette famously pummeled Iowa State in Ames. Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State by a closer-than-two-scores two scores. Coastal Carolina beat Georgia State on the road, 51-0, and while a 51-point shutout is often more an indictment of the loser than a source of pride for the winner (and our model does give diminishing returns on win and loss quality as margins rise), Georgia State’s somewhere between Kentucky and Texas Tech in quality, if we trust Bill Connelly’s SP+ (and we do). Based solely on precedent, the model would expect a team with Coastal Carolina’s résumé, even accounting for the Group of Five punishment they and their opponents incur, to be very close to the top four if not in the top four right now. Our model doesn’t expect a Coastal Carolina win to move their needle too much (the natural curvature of the current top 25 makes the leap from 18th to even 13th look rather large right now), but it also expects the current punishment relative to precedent (for being a Sun Belt team?) to remain the same, and given that’s the most subjective piece of their ranking and a large reason they’re as far from the playoff as they are, it’s entirely possible at least some of that will be erased this week, win or lose.
In other words, this isn’t just an opportunity for BYU.
Of course, it’s that too. A ten-point BYU win, as Vegas predicts will be the case, is projected by our model to vault the Cougars ahead of Cincinnati, given it comes on the road, and given their APD (adjusted point differential, our proxy for both advanced metrics [good] and the eye test [bad]) is quite strong. Now, our model may be unduly confident, and we aren’t publishing the model’s probabilities or even its top 25 forecasts due to our lack of confidence in its ability to forecast a season that does not conform to precedent. Still, though, this is a real opportunity for BYU to get close. Maybe even close enough. We’ll see.
The Games that Might
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Appalachian State (Friday, 8:30 PM EST, ESPN)
West Virginia @ Iowa State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ESPN)
Baylor @ Oklahoma (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, FOX)
The Big 12 triumvirate, which includes Louisiana-Lafayette as the key cog in Iowa State’s résumé. Yes, there’s a paradox here. The Ragin’ Cajuns beat Iowa State, in Ames, by a substantial margin and have only lost one game—that to an undefeated Coastal Carolina—while Iowa State also lost to Oklahoma State. And yet here we are, with Iowa State putting a lot of hope in ULL to get a road victory, raise their own lot, and buoy the Big 12’s fringe playoff shot as well.
If all three of these games go as Vegas expects—Oklahoma wins by three touchdowns, Iowa State wins by one touchdown, ULL loses by a field goal—then, independent of other results, you’d expect both Oklahoma and Iowa State to drop a bit. If ULL wins by a field goal, Iowa State only holds pat. So. Iowa State needs to win by more than seven. Oklahoma needs to win by more than 21. Louisiana-Lafayette needs to win. And that’s just what can be done this week. A lot more needs to happen.
Stanford @ Washington (Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, FOX)
Colorado @ Arizona (Saturday, 7:00 PM EST, FS1)
Washington State @ USC (Sunday, 7:30 PM EST, FS1)
We won’t give you any readings from our model with the Pac-12, because our model has no way to compare potential 4-0 teams to potential 10-0 teams. We will say, though, that Washington, Colorado, and USC are all still undefeated, all still play in a Power Five league, and all have the finish line in sight. They can’t be counted out just yet. Not even Colorado. Not with the coronavirus canceling games on us.
Ohio State @ Michigan State (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ABC)
Syracuse @ Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 PM EST, NBC)
Clemson @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST, ABC)
Alabama @ LSU (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, CBS)
The four current placeholders. All big favorites this weekend. All playing don’t-mess-up games, with three of them possibly needing some style points.
Florida @ Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, CBS)
The contender, playing a don’t-mess-up game of their own. Florida’s a pretty simple case—win out, they’re in, lose once, they’re out (barring a major surprise). Which means style points aren’t all that crucial for the Gators.
Indiana @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, ABC)
This is rather important for Ohio State, as far as games of friends go. Independent of other results, the Vegas-expected outcome (a 14-point Wisconsin win) would, per our model’s expectation, rob Ohio State of their lone top 25 win, to date. This wouldn’t be a disaster for the Buckeyes (it would be quite a shocker if the eye test were to turn on them, given how much advanced metrics like this team, and how those two are, at their best, correlated). But it could thin the ice a bit. Which makes it, along with a Texas A&M loss and an ugly Coastal Carolina win, part of Cincinnati’s dream plausible scenario for this weekend.
Rice @ Marshall (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
Obligatory mention of an undefeated Group of Five team playing. Because as Coastal Carolina and UCF have shown us, these guys can get relevant.
