Last night’s loss to Clemson was a loss to Clemson. Clemson’s good, and Clemson’s consistent, and Clemson was the home team, and Clemson has a lot to play for. Notre Dame made a little first half run, and then Clemson put the thing away a little bit after halftime. There are things to be upset about, specifically on the defensive end (where the Irish only forced four turnovers and things got outright lazy towards the end), but the overall performance was more or less fine.
So, instead of focusing on last night, we’re going to take a few minutes to take stock of the freshmen class. They’re getting more run. We’re getting an early feel for who’ll be in the mix next year around Markus Burton (newly a 1,000-point scorer), Tae Davis (who I assume will be back), and Jalen Haralson (who’ll be accompanied by two more top-100 recruits). How it’s going for each of the three first-years…
Sir Mohammed Is Hard to Notice
Sir Mohammed’s taken on a larger role since Matt Allocco got hurt, and he’s mostly played fine. The last two games have been tough in the turnover department, and his shooting has been bleak, but there’s no reason to be concerned about Notre Dame’s best recruit from the 2024 class. He was hurt for a significant developmental stretch, it didn’t make sense to give him run when Notre Dame was still hoping to make a bubble push, and the three-point (and free throw) shooting is small-sample stuff. Mohammed looks comfortable and natural on the court, and while the shooting results have always been the concern, it’s not like his form is 2023 Braeden Shrewsberry out there. There’s something to work with, and a larger sample might not turn out that bad.
On the other end, Mohammed’s defensive BPR (credit EvanMiya) isn’t good but isn’t terrible. He could develop into a well-rounded college basketball weapon.
Still, the guy doesn’t catch your eye when he’s on the court. I had to pull up tape from the SMU game to remind myself what his shot even looks like. This is ok—you win with baskets and stops, not by being noticeable—but the lack of presence is surprising given his offensive abilities. Hopefully, with Shrewsberry unfortunately out for the season, Mohammed can find the room to grow. I think we’re going to be happy with this guy in the long run, but I think we’re going to get to November asking ourselves what Mohammed can be. Some of that is the jump-shot, but I’m more interested in whether Mohammed can assert himself.
Cole Certa Is Frustrating, But You Can See the Idea
Hand up: I hate Cole Certa’s haircut. I’ve said this before, but I wish his response to that foul against Rutgers had been to go buy some Walgreens clippers and give himself a buzz. There’s an unfortunate connection where Certa looks aloof, dopey, and soft and also plays aloofly, dopily, and softly. If he played differently, the haircut would be fine.
That all said, Certa’s a skilled shooter, and it’s easy to see where he could be going. There’s nothing wrong with having a punchable face if you make enough shots. If you play at Duke, punchability can even be an asset, something that gets under everybody else’s skin. I have no problem with a future where Certa’s an eighth-man three-point specialist next year and then plays a significant, offensively-focused role in 2027 and 2028. Hopefully he gets there. On the rare occasions when he’s made shots, his cockiness has fit the moment. The rest of the time, he plays like a middle schooler who got pulled into an adult pickup game because they needed a tenth guy. He plays like he’s wearing a polo.
In short: I’ve got hope for Certa. But over however many games remain, I’d like to see him resemble an adolescent man instead of a eunuch.
Garrett Sundra Could Work
Here’s a hypothetical:
If you could choose between 1) Kebba Njie after another offseason of work and 2) Garrett Sundra after an offseason spent gaining 40 pounds, who would you want starting at the five on opening night next year? The correct answer is probably Njie, if you go through all the numbers and trust that the offensive development will continue. The tempting answer is Sundra, who’s shown some natural shooting capacity and is easy to profile as a competent stretch five (at least offensively) once he outgrows his baby moose phase.
We can’t afford to be out on Njie just yet. Tommy Ahneman is no guarantee to become Jack Cooley, and Jack Cooley took a long time to become Jack Cooley. Sundra will never be Jack Cooley (though he could be Rob Kurz). Njie is our best present hope to fill that Jack Cooley/Martinas Geben/Paul Atkinson role, that of a serious big man as opposed to a Nate Laszewski, waiting–for–Europe-style guy. Sundra could really complement Njie, though, especially if this program finds a way to get some muscle on those bones and a little scrap in that brain.
I’d guess the ideal hope within the program is to find a veteran big man through the transfer portal, one who’s shown he can hold his own down low against power conference athletes. I don’t know, though, how robust that market will be. So what I’d like to see from Sundra these next few weeks is either so much offensive skill that we don’t care if he can rebound, or a couple instances where he goes into the pile like he’s Julian Roper. It’d be nice to see at least a shadow of a dog in Garrett Sundra. Just to know it might one day be there.
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Pivoting:
It’s not good to lose Braeden Shrewsberry to injury. It’s worth talking a little more, though, about that statistical reality where it could make Notre Dame better.
Shrewsberry is a low-turnover player with solid shooting marks. This makes it unusual that his adjusted offensive +/- ratings, like EvanMiya’s BPR, are mediocre. Outcomes are fine on possessions that end in Braeden Shrewsberry’s hands. But when he’s on the court and others finish the possession, outcomes are poorer than you’d expect. In human terms? The stats indicate Braeden Shrewsberry makes Notre Dame’s other players play worse.
We’re setting aside defense here, but to give it a quick mention: Braeden Shrewsberry can be a good college defender. He might never be a good on-ball defender, but overall at the college level, knowing what you’re doing can usually be enough. Braeden Shrewsberry seems really smart. He seems like he can learn what to do. The defense is worrying, but it’s not a death sentence.
Going back to offense: Why does Braeden Shrewsberry make his teammates play worse basketball?
My best theory is that Shrewsberry is so confident in his handling of broken possessions that his teammates don’t trust themselves. Under duress, these guys look to Markus Burton. If Burton isn’t available, they turn to Shrewsberry. If Shrewsberry isn’t available, they start pissing and shitting and the Ian Schieffelins of the world swat them off the waterfall like a grizzly bear knocking a juvenile hyena off his turf. Basically, the theory goes that Shrewsberry is a crutch for players who lack confidence, and he probably contributes to the negative cycle by being so eager to step in. Braeden Shrewsberry is the kind of player who has played tons and tons and tons of recreational basketball. We need a world where he’s harnessing that IQ within an offense instead of treating the ACC like a YMCA.
Short version: I don’t blame Braeden Shrewsberry all that much. I blame his parents. But I’m hopeful.
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The Irish go to Winston-Salem on Saturday, where Wake Forest just lost by eight to fellow bad team Virginia. Wake’s decent, but they’re crumbling a little these days. I don’t know if that means they’ll gather themselves and hit us in the mouth or if we’re walking into a winnable game. If they do look rattled, I hope we see more Konieczny & Roper. I know Roper isn’t that good, and I know Konieczny has never been elite when playing outside the Barclays Center, but I’m going to miss both those guys. Neither is good enough to make a team win, but when winning is possible, both know how to do it.
I’m assuming Konieczny is going to go the Matt Zona route and grad transfer to a lower-tier mid-major. His minutes all year imply that’s what Micah Shrewsberry wants. It might not be bad—I don’t know that Konieczny fits what Shrewsberry’s trying to build—but I will miss J.R. Konieczny. He kept showing up for his hometown program when almost nobody else did. I hope we always give him credit for that.
