I’ve never heard a bad thing about the city of Pittsburgh. Around the age of nine, my mom’s friend said, in my presence, “Pittsburgh’s gotten really nice!” Ever since then, it’s been more of the same. I bring this up because a few days ago, I asked some friends what they thought the most underrated city was in the United States, and multiple people said Pittsburgh. I have never been to Pittsburgh. I would like to go. I hear it’s gotten really nice! But aside from Pittsburgh, I am not sure there’s a city in America about which I’ve heard uniformly good things. Because of that, I’m not sure Pittsburgh can really be underrated.
On the other side of the over/underrated coin, we find Notre Dame football. People love to call Notre Dame overrated. It’s a tradition at this point, as sacred to our enemies as the player walk is to us. Like most traditions, though, the origins of calling Notre Dame overrated have gotten murky over time. For a while there, was the sentiment true? Probably. That period, though, was short. By the mid-2000’s, Mark May was making a good living ripping Notre Dame on ESPN while the Charlie Weis era took a concerning turn for the worse. During the Brian Kelly years, as Notre Dame bumped against Kelly’s ceiling and college football grew in prominence, the haters’ platform became enormous. The idea that Notre Dame’s overrated is so prominent that some take it as a given. “We know Notre Dame’s overrated,” they begin, then move on to whatever it is they’re trying to say.
Notre Dame is not overrated. Not anymore.
What I really think happened, and what happens still, is that the college football world talks a lot about Notre Dame, and certain fans take that quantity of conversation to mean the college football world always thinks we’re good. Does the college football world think we’re good? Sometimes. Often, however, they don’t. People don’t talk about Notre Dame because they think we’re good. They talk about us because we’re Notre Dame.
No single school is more integral to college football than Notre Dame. Were one program wiped from the earth, none would change college football as dramatically in their exit as Notre Dame. Michigan’s significance is tied to Ohio State. Alabama’s is now enmeshed in the SEC. Notre Dame is unique, uniquely individualistic and uniquely historic. We were the first national college football team. We were the first school who used football to become something bigger than what we were. Until Nick Saban went to Tuscaloosa, we were the best college football program of all time. Of course the college football world talks about Notre Dame. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be talking about college football.
The great thing about this—the great thing about seven-win Big Ten schools teaching their infants to call Notre Dame overrated—is that the notion has grown so widespread as to flip the narrative on its head. Just as there’s no way Pittsburgh could be underrated, given how much America praises the city of steel, there’s no way Notre Dame could be overrated.
Especially not this year.
There are a number of college football rating systems out there, and we’ll talk about the best one—betting markets’ average point spread—a little later on. For our purposes at The Barking Crow, we usually reference ESPN’s SP+, ESPN’s FPI, and our own Movelor. All three do a solid job of predicting college football scores. All three are less than a point more inaccurate than those betting markets. An aggregate of the three currently ranks Notre Dame second in the country, a tenth of a point behind not Oregon, but Ohio State. In the messy jumble that is college football’s 2024–25 campaign, some of the best objective resources we have say Notre Dame is right there, right now, with the very best college football teams in the country.
You aren’t getting that message often in the college football world.
To get back to those famously efficient betting markets: They seem to agree with the ratings. In forward-looking markets, Notre Dame is only a one-point underdog against Georgia should we beat Indiana tonight. In futures markets, Georgia isn’t far behind Oregon and Texas for status as the national championship favorite. Futures markets are less efficient than single-game spreads, and each team’s path must be considered, but beat Indiana, and Notre Dame will be among the national championship favorites. In ESPN’s College Football Playoff bracket challenge, nearly as many fans picked Boise State as picked the Irish to win it all. Notre Dame’s not overrated. If anything, this country is taking us too lightly.
The best argument against Notre Dame is that Notre Dame isn’t as talented as Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, or Oregon. This argument is fair. It’s important in football to be big, strong, and fast, and Notre Dame isn’t as big, strong, and fast as those four teams, especially the deeper you get into the depth chart. Against Indiana? The best arguments against Notre Dame are hazy. One says that this is a big game, and so Notre Dame will choke. Is there precedent there? Not really. In the vast majority of recent big games, Notre Dame has been a heavy underdog. The other argument says that Notre Dame is untested.
This second argument—that the Irish haven’t been tested—carries a little water. It’s a fair argument. Of those three ratings systems we just mentioned, SP+ thinks highest of Texas A&M, and SP+ only ranks the Aggies 14th. That’s right now. In August, with Conner Weigman under center? It was a different A&M, and not as strong an A&M as the one who finished the season playing for a spot in the SEC Championship. We haven’t seen what this year’s Notre Dame would do against athletes like Georgia’s. We haven’t seen what this year’s Notre Dame will do against as well-coached a team as Curt Cignetti’s Indiana. The error margin on those rating systems’ estimates is wider with Notre Dame than it is with Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, or Tennessee. Wide, though, works both ways. We can be less confident in SP+, FPI, and Movelor’s assessments of the Irish than we are in their assessments of Ohio State, or even Indiana. But while those assessments might be wrong about us, the likelihood that they’re overselling the Irish is equal to the likelihood that they’re underselling the Irish, and that at least right now, with a month of football to be played and plenty of improvement in other corners to go along with it, we’re actually the best team in the country.
Where the “tested vs. untested” argument breaks down is where it gets to Indiana. Indiana was tested. Indiana played in Columbus less than a month ago. Indiana failed that test. Indiana met one team of comparable quality to Notre Dame, Indiana met that team recently, and that team ran Indiana off the field, beating the famously big-talking Cignetti so badly with the blitz that he only allowed Kurtis Rourke to drop back a couple dozen times, even though IU trailed for the entire second half. In a 23-point victory, Ohio State held Rourke to eight completions. When you take sacks out of the equation, held Indiana’s run game to a Purduevian 3.6 yards per carry. Having been tested doesn’t help a whole lot if you flunked.
It’s true that Notre Dame didn’t play a team like Ohio State this year. It’s true that the Texas A&M game came all the way back in August, and that Louisville—probably Notre Dame’s second-strongest foe—came to South Bend all the way back in September. It’s true that Notre Dame merely survived both those games. But Indiana merely survived Michigan six weeks ago. Indiana got toasted by Ohio State. Indiana is slower, smaller, and weaker than Notre Dame. It isn’t a huge difference, and Indiana is excellently coached. But if we’re doing this quality–win pissing contest, Notre Dame’s average opponent was, per Movelor, 4.1 points better than Indiana’s this year.
I’m a little hesitant to bring this last part up, because a team’s record against the spread is often meaningless. The reason betting markets are so famously efficient is that they adjust very well to new inputs. The likeliest outcome of this game? A seven-point Irish win, like the markets say. Still, betting markets famously undersold Indiana this year. The Hoosiers went 9–3 against the spread. Indiana played well, and bettors adjusted, and Indiana continued to outperform their expectations. 9–3 is one of the best such records in the country. Only four teams have a better record against the spread than 9–3. Among those four? Notre Dame, who went 9–2–1. Betting markets habitually underestimated Indiana. They underestimated Notre Dame even more often.
As with “Notre Dame is untested,” there’s some credence to the idea that Indiana’s been underestimated all year and could be underestimated again tonight. We hope, of course, that Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame’s locker room believe Indiana is an opponent worthy of full focus and commitment. But the same data which illustrates people taking the Hoosiers lightly actually shows those same people missing the mark even worse on Notre Dame. And if we’re bringing up how long ago Notre Dame played A&M and Louisville? Notre Dame hasn’t failed to cover a spread since September. Indiana didn’t cover twice in its last three games. Any argument that betting markets are still undervaluing Indiana is weaker than one that those markets—the same markets which have the Irish on par with Gunner Stockton’s Georgia—are still undervaluing Notre Dame.
I don’t think anyone’s overrated tonight.
I really don’t think Notre Dame is.
How to Beat Indiana
This is, of course, a bit of a nightmare of a matchup. The only thing gained by beating Indiana is the opportunity to play Georgia on New Year’s Day. Nobody is going to be impressed if Notre Dame beats Indiana. If we smoke Indiana? For a moment, sure, the Hoosier State might bow to us with renewed reverence. But just as no one would think more highly of the American military if it fended off an invasion by, say, Iceland, nobody’s going to be impressed if Notre Dame wins tonight. Nobody would give Michael Jordan a trophy for winning a wheelchair basketball league.
The problem, of course, is that this is a great Indiana football team. It’s not a great football team—good, yes; great, no—but for Indiana? This is a remarkable football-playing unit. This football team is Indiana’s best since Bobby Knight was still at West Point. This football team is good enough to potentially beat Notre Dame. That’s why this matchup is a nightmare. If Notre Dame wins? Congratulations to us for beating the Big Ten’s worst historic program. If Notre Dame loses? It’s a Hoosier State apocalypse. Losing is possible. We must not lose.
Thankfully, if Notre Dame is going to do the 2017–24 Notre Dame thing here, we’ll obliterate Indiana. We’ve seen this script play out in recent years, against USC and Clemson and a bunch of teams like North Carolina. An opponent puts up a big win–loss record with questionable underlying performance. We bite our nails and text the group chats about how seriously we hope this program is taking this game. This program is taking this game seriously, and this program outmatches the foe at hand, and as the minutes tick down we whip ourselves into a jubilant triumphant frenzy. Then, we play one of those teams who’s bigger and faster and stronger than we are, and we come up short. (Or, you know. We lose to NIU.)
How can Notre Dame earn us the jubilant triumphant frenzy tonight? Freeman & Co. know better than I, but if I had to guess, the simplest answer is not the blitz, though we’ll get to that in a moment. My guess is that the simplest answer is to run the ball down Indiana’s throat, and to cut the Hoosier defense open with RPO’s if they sell out to try to stop Leonard & Love.
D’Angelo Ponds is scary. I think most of us remember the highlights from Indiana’s game against Washington. Aiden Fisher? Another great player, one who anchors a very good defense across the board. The issue for Indiana is that Notre Dame is big brother here, and I’m not talking about cultural hierarchies. Notre Dame is bigger than Indiana. Our offensive line—long feared to be a weakness early in the year—is tight and efficient and large. Jeremiyah Love’s health is a concern tonight, but Jadarian Price also averages more than seven yards per carry. For as great as Love is, and for as good a runner as Leonard is, a lot of Notre Dame’s run game is the line. All run games, at some point, are about the line. Indiana has made no secret about its intention to key in on Leonard. If the starting five can get a good push and beat Indiana on the Hoosiers’ chosen battlefield? It’ll be midnight early for Cig-nerella.
It doesn’t look like snow will fall during the game itself, and the wind shouldn’t be intense, and while Leonard’s from the South, he should be able to make the throws he can usually make in the weather we’ll see this evening. Ponds is scary, but Mike Denbrock’s made a lot of scary cornerbacks look like kittens by scheming receivers open in the flat. Leonard needs to execute, but even if Indiana makes the run difficult, that’s all Leonard needs to do: Execute. Depending how exactly they attack the run, we might even see a lot of opportunity for Mitchell Evans in the middle of the field. Notre Dame has options, but Option #1 is to run the damn ball.
When the defense is on the field, blitzing is the main idea. It’s a little risky in a game that could be low-scoring—we saw against NIU how big one play can loom—and after Ohio State beat Rourke over the head with his own cleats, you’d imagine Indiana has some ideas to counteract pressure. At the end of the day, though, again: Notre Dame is the bigger, faster, stronger team. Also? These receivers are not USC’s. Christian Gray might be a target, but this is not a Lincoln Riley passing attack. This is a more similar unit to Texas A&M’s, who also tried to pick on Gray but had limited success due to its own football-playing limitations.
Just blitz. Cignetti doesn’t have style points to protect, so he won’t turtle all second half again, but that makes it even better. Put Rourke’s head on a tee and see if Rylie Mills can knock it back to Canada.*
Notre Dame should win this game. We have plenty of experience with Notre Dame losing games Notre Dame should win, and we cannot understate how much Indiana maximizes its physical potential on the football field. But Indiana should be outmatched tonight. All Notre Dame needs to do is play a clean, well-executed game and not let the vacant kicking position become important.
*Not literally. Do not decapitate or even concuss Kurtis Rourke. He went through enough against the Buckeyes.
Riley Leonard Gets It, and Man I Love Freeman
As a lot of you know, we’ve got a new baby around, and he’s doing the witching hour(s) a lot of nights right now. So, after a couple hours of rocking and burping and serenading the young man with the fan above the stove, I went to bed Wednesday night very much wanting to get right to sleep. I also went to bed with absolutely no willpower in the tank, which meant I opened Instagram while my wife went into the kitchen to get something. On a friend’s story, I saw the Riley Leonard letter in the Players’ Tribune. I’d missed it earlier in the day.
It’s a good letter, and it includes a picture of Marcus Freeman I’d forgotten existed, one which filled me with all sorts of fire as I remembered hoping last fall, as Freeman shouldered the deserved blame for the ten men on the field, that my grandkids would learn about Freeman the way I learned about Ara Parseghian. But the quote from Leonard which really moved me, the one that made me appreciate him more than any quarterback since Ian Book, was this:
We lost to NIU, and it was completely my fault. Like, that’s not me “taking the blame” or anything. That’s just kind of a fact. And after the game, it’s hard to even describe how bad I felt. For myself, I guess, but more than that for my teammates and for the school. I just felt like they’d let me be a part of this special thing here, and I was reckless with it. I felt like I let a lot of people down.
“They’d let me be a part of this special thing here.”
The Glee Club director at Notre Dame—Dan Stowe, who’s retiring this year—talks a lot about stewardship, or at least he did in the mid-2010’s. He used to remind us how lucky we were to inherit this organization so many people had poured their hearts into, and how important it was that we treat the organization well, so that we might hand it off to the next generation still in good shape. He was talking about a choir, but the phenomenon is not unique to the choral world. There’s a reason churches call fundraising “stewardship.” It’s the same idea. People build institutions. People hand those institutions to future generations. If those generations treat those institutions with care, the institutions thrive and continue to be passed down. If they don’t, Notre Dame loses to Navy and UConn.
All of us who’ve attended Notre Dame or whose lives have been touched by Notre Dame owe a debt of gratitude to Knute Rockne, and to Fr. Sorin, and to Parseghian and Fr. Hesburgh and thousands more whose names we’ll never know. Without the perseverance of those early Holy Cross priests and brothers and sisters against winter and fire and cholera, Notre Dame would not have survived its infancy. Without Rockne, Notre Dame would not have grown into a national icon, and likely would not have survived World War II. Without Parseghian and others, Notre Dame’s early football success would have become as prehistoric as Army’s. Without Hesburgh and his kind, Notre Dame would not be the place we know it as today. Those who built Notre Dame didn’t know for whom they were building it. They were building it for us, though. For you. For me. For every kid catching a pass on South Quad against the smell of a steak sandwich. For every bastard trying to neuter the dorms. For Riley Leonard. They were building it for Riley Leonard. It sounds like Riley Leonard gets that.
“They’d let me be a part of this special thing here.”
May we all take stewardship so seriously.
Markus Burton Is Hurt; Hannah Hidalgo Is Not
We’ll talk more about Irish basketball next week, before conference play begins in earnest in the days leading up to New Year’s. As a quick recap, though, for those who haven’t been following:
The men’s team opened the year strong, shit down its leg against Elon, played respectably but lost all three games in Las Vegas, lost Markus Burton—the one indispensable player on the team—for multiple weeks to an MCL injury in the Vegas opener, got crushed by Georgia, then beat Syracuse at home to open ACC play 1–0. It’s going to be ugly, and NCAA Tournament hopes are probably out the window, but the team should get better and it should get Burton back. Thank goodness the ACC is down so bad. Kenpom has us going 10–10 in conference play.
The women’s team is undefeated on U.S. soil, beat USC (and JuJu Watkins) in Los Angeles, and punked UConn last week at a packed Purcell Pavilion. Hannah Hidalgo is a contender for Player of the Year, right between Paige Bueckers and Watkins in the current odds. The losses to TCU and Utah in the Cayman Islands are weird and disappointing, but this is college basketball. You’re allowed to lose to TCU and Utah in the Cayman Islands. It’s not football, where you’re only allowed to lose to NIU.
**
Go Irish tonight. Safe travels to those going to the game, and especially to those going home after the game. Please be safe. But also? Please give Indiana a great time that is simultaneously hell. Make them remember why so many of their kind used to call themselves Notre Dame football fans.
God, Country, Notre Dame. In glory everlasting.
