They did it. Notre Dame held on.
Later, we’re going to be hard on the Irish for almost blowing yesterday’s game at the end, so we want to give these guys credit here for pulling away as the second half went on. Pitt’s a mediocre team, but the Panthers had more to play for than their hosts, and a shorthanded Notre Dame managed to nevertheless grab a game when it was there for the taking. You don’t want this kind of win to be meaningful. It is, though. So, we’ll both celebrate it and lament what’s lamentable.
Four things:
Tae Davis’s Big Day
Context considered, that was the best game of Tae Davis’s career. He was efficient. He was strong with the basketball. He looked confident and competitive, less reliant on the whistle to get his shots. Per kenpom, no power conference player has taken as high a share of their team’s shots (when on the floor) as Markus Burton. Davis doesn’t take too few shots per se, but anything that takes pressure off Burton is going to help this operation. It’s also fair to hope that this helps Davis’s confidence these next few weeks. Clemson doesn’t give anything away for free. If we’re going to be competitive on Wednesday, we need Davis to hold his own physically. That’s more a mental battle than anything else.
Braeden Shrewsberry’s Absence, Statistically
I’ve grown to like Braeden Shrewsberry and appreciate what he does for this team. He’s chaotic, but he rarely looks timid. That said, it’s not great to look at EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Ratings and see Shrewsberry rated as Notre Dame’s worst player. (Seven players—Shrewsberry, Davis, Allocco, Njie, Burton, Roper, and Konieczny—meet the current default minimum possession threshold.)
The way those ratings work is to adjust for opponent and opponent lineup, then ask, “How good was this player’s team when this player was on the floor?” It measures both ends of the game. Shrewsberry isn’t a detriment to the Irish offensively—he ranks fourth among the core rotation in offensive BPR—but defensively, no one has a worse impact on Notre Dame’s outcomes than Micah Shrewsberry’s eldest son. Notably, Braeden Shrewsberry grades out worse both offensively and defensively than Matt Allocco, who per kenpom takes shots with roughly 60% of the frequency of his backcourt-mate, adjusting for possession count. Notably, Braeden Shrewsberry grades out worse overall than J.R. Konieczny, who started yesterday, made six free throws in the final minute, and was generally quiet but only missed two shots.
It wasn’t a particularly strong performance from Notre Dame defensively, which is also notable with Shrewsberry and Allocco out. Theoretically, Notre Dame should be a lot tougher on the defensive end without those two specific players. Maybe this happened because Pitt’s a good offensive team. Maybe players like Konieczny are stronger defensively when tasked with playing fewer minutes. Maybe EvanMiya isn’t capturing the state of Notre Dame’s performance right now. Most likely, those factors have limited impact. Most likely, the weaker defensive performance is—like the stronger offensive performance, one of the strongest of the year—a small sample. The numbers say Notre Dame’s better when Braeden Shrewsberry isn’t on the court. I wish that wasn’t true, but it’s the case, and it’s not a very good look for Braeden’s dad.
Why hasn’t Konieczny gotten more minutes this year? My best guesses:
Braeden Shrewsberry’s willing to take shots, and Notre Dame needs that. Konieczny is a more passive player than Shrewsberry, and these Irish have a lot of passive guys.
Braeden Shrewsberry’s going to be here two more years, and he needs to develop. There’s potential for a scholarship crunch, and Konieczny should have his degree in May, if he’s graduating in four years. I’ve wondered at times if Micah Shrewsberry has never been high enough on Konieczny’s potential to include him in long-term plans.
I don’t really like either of these explanations, personally. Braeden Shrewsberry has played more possessions this year than anyone else on the roster. Some of that is injuries to Burton and Allocco, but Shrewsberry could develop in a more limited role. Meanwhile, his willingness to take so many shots is part of why Matt Allocco’s gotten so few shots, a bizarre and calamitous subplot this entire season. Notre Dame isn’t playing for a lot, but there’s a difference between “17–16 and an NIT berth” and “15–18 and no basketball after the ACC Tournament.”
Hopefully Braeden’s fine and returns on Wednesday. He creates upside, and Clemson’s a team against which we’ll need upside. But when healthy, his role should probably be smaller than it is. And Konieczny should probably be getting more minutes.
The Heimlich Worked
They didn’t choke! Almost choked—I thought we were about to give up another four-point play, this time thanks to Logan Imes—but they didn’t choke. Notre Dame is now 5–10 in single-digit games, but at least they’re 2–0 in the last two.
That said…they really almost choked, looking timid and weak as ever across that final minute. Thank goodness Konieczny made all those free throws. That would have been awful.
Postseason Talk
We haven’t clinched an ACC Tournament spot just yet, but we’re two games up on NC State and Boston College with four to go, and all three of Cal, Syracuse, and Virginia (via tiebreaker) sit between us and the cut line. If the season ended with the standings looking like this, Notre Dame would be the 12-seed, with the theoretical path to the semifinals going through Virginia, SMU, and Duke.
Kenpom currently projects a 2–2 finish from here, though 1–3 is likelier per those numbers than 3–1. Still, a run for an NIT bid isn’t entirely out of the question, especially if there are a lot of opt-outs. Xavier was a much better team last year than Notre Dame is this year, but Xavier made it at 16–17. Do what they should, and the Irish will finish 15–18. Do one (regular season) game better, and an invitation is at least believable. Nabbing one of the ACC’s three “exempt” bids is almost definitely off the table, but it’s not impossible to keep this season going. After yesterday, that at least doesn’t sound like a full-on curse anymore.
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