Notre Dame’s men’s basketball season tips off tonight, with fellow Holy Cross school Stonehill coming to the JACC. Some thoughts on the season ahead, and then we’ll get into a little football at the bottom:
1. The Baseline Is the NIT
Notre Dame showed up in our own Joe Stunardi’s preseason NIT Bracketology, opening with a road game against Northwestern. Is this where we want Notre Dame men’s basketball to be? Don’t say this too loudly around here, but no. Still, after two straight 20-loss seasons and an 11–15 mark in 2021, making the 2025 NIT would be a measurable step forward. The fact it’s the preliminary median expectation is itself a step forward. There’s at least some semblance of an expectation now. Hopefully, the Irish outperform it, but this is not a year of hoping we don’t get killed.
2. Markus Burton Should Be Good, Not Great
A lot of preseason accolades have gone Markus Burton’s way, and I’m thrilled for him and happy to see them. He’s such a likable figure, and the Burton-centric roster construction is absolutely the right move. At the same time, though, Markus Burton is a true sophomore, and I’m not sure I believe he’s six feet tall. The guy went through the wringer last year, wore a ton of lumps, and came out highly respected, as he should be. But EvanMiya has Burton only the 32nd-best player in the ACC entering games tonight. There are things Bayesian Performance Ratings don’t capture, but basically: Keep it reasonable. Don’t expect Burton to be Magic Johnson out there.
3. Matt Allocco Should Be Useful
The best offseason addition should be Allocco, whose Princeton team was just as good last year as this Notre Dame team is expected to be. Allocco shot 43% from three last season, and he’s a 42% shooter beyond the arc over his career. He’s going to be a defensive liability, but not a severe one (he knows what he’s doing), and most importantly, he’s going to be a major asset on the offensive end. Possibly the best asset. We don’t know what Braeden Shrewsberry will be, sometimes horrific last year and sometimes clutch. We’re hoping Julian Roper and JR Konieczny can fill veteran support roles instead of needing to get buckets. Ideally, Allocco is the primary offensive weapon for whom Burton can create. Ideally, Allocco can be the Andrew Funk to Burton’s Jalen Pickett.
4. The Freshman Are Coming Next Year
Don’t expect too much from Sir Mohammed, Garrett Sundra, and the other freshmen out of the gate. It seems like Mohammed and Sundra are going to be in the rotation, and they should develop into very good players. But there’s development remaining with both those guys, and with Cole Certa. These are not the recruits who have us over the moon about the future of the program. Those guys show up next summer.
5. Tae Davis Is an Athlete
Thanks to our NIT habit, we got a good look last year at what Tae Davis’s brother Dre meant to Seton Hall. Tae is a different player—for one thing, he’s three inches taller—but the Davis family is athletic, and they’ve got some dog in ‘em. Notre Dame needs answers inside, and Davis can be a part of that, sliding in from the wing or playing a stretch five, as he sometimes did last year when Carey Booth was on the floor. Anyone can do the little things, but Davis is our best bet to do them.
We don’t have a great read on how deep the rotation will go. That’s part of what we’re looking forward to learning tonight. (The Irish are a 24-point and 99% kenpom favorite, by the way.) Behind Burton and Allocco, there are a lot of players who grade out similarly in objective preseason projections like the EvanMiya ones we mentioned earlier. But if you’re just getting back into Notre Dame basketball, we’d tell you to keep your eye on Burton, Allocco, and Tae Davis.
6. The ACC Is Almost Open
There’s no reason to believe Duke’s anything less than a top-five team. Behind them, RJ Davis should keep UNC’s floor very high. (Ven-Allen Lubin’s a Tar Heel, by the way. Don’t get jumpscared when you see him in January.) But after those two, the conference really opens up. Someone else will surely overperform significantly, but it’s ok to dream about a double bye in the ACC Tournament. Micah Shrewsberry’s Penn State team didn’t make the biggest second-year leap in history, but it made a good one.
Some other things to know:
- The ACC Tournament is 14 teams large this year. The four worst teams in the conference won’t make it.
- Kenpom has Notre Dame going 17–14 overall and 10–10 in conference play before the ACC Tournament starts. The schedule isn’t all that tough, though, so it’s possible Notre Dame needs to go something like 23–10 to make the NCAA Tournament. I hope I’m being conservative with that number.
- UNC comes to the JACC, but it’s during winter break. Duke does not come to the JACC. The three teams Notre Dame plays twice are Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Boston College.
7. Good Things Are Shrewing
The big thing to know is that this is the fun year. Expectations are real but manageable. The five-stars haven’t arrived yet, so the pressure isn’t there. We have an eminently likable second-year coach with a proven history of offensive wizardry, and his team played good defense last year. The university (speaking broadly here) appears more committed to men’s basketball than it’s been in decades, accepting the need for NIL resources and providing those. This year is prelude to the next few, but because of those manageable expectations, it has the potential to be a ton of fun. Good things are Shrewing, friends. Good things are Shrewing.
**
Pivoting to football…a few big-picture notes, mostly referencing Joe’s model:
- Movelor, the model’s power rating system, says Notre Dame is playing just as well as Georgia, Texas, and Alabama right now. The difference between those three teams and us is that they have more top-end talent and more depth, and their best player isn’t out for the season with a hip injury. They should hold up better than we do. But right now, Notre Dame is beating teams just as dominantly as those three teams, adjusting for schedule.
- Notre Dame is almost certain to make the playoff if we win out, and there’s a really good chance we get a home game if we do go 11–1. I’ve seen some hand-wringing over only being ranked tenth last night, but that was better than our model expected, and our model has Notre Dame’s average final CFP ranking up at eighth, even including the simulations where Notre Dame does not finish 11–1.
- Miami might finish ranked ahead of the Big Ten or SEC champion. They’d have to thread a needle, but it’s possible Notre Dame could open with a home game and then play Miami in Atlanta, which isn’t a bad path. The 5-seed’s almost definitely off the table (3.5% chance), so if you want to hope on a good path, it’s a home game and then a shot at Miami, who is very good but probably not as good as Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, or Alabama. (And, like us, shouldn’t hold up as well as those teams.)
- This team is doing a great job of responding to injury and adversity. Leonard Moore (shoutout Round Rock, Texas) was a maniac against Navy in the best way. Jordan Clark may have lost his cool against Louisville, but he’s generally executed well in the secondary. The offensive line isn’t necessarily a strength, but it’s good enough to get the job done, and Mike Denbrock and Riley Leonard seem to be figuring one another out. This is a sign of a well-coached team. Guys are stepping up. Guys are filling in. The conversion rate of talent to performance is one of the most efficient in the country right now, which is a really big sign that everyone’s pulling in the same direction.
- Bryson Daily looks like he’ll be back for Army by the time we play them, and that’s good for Bryson Daily and Army and college football and our country, but it’s not good for Notre Dame. Daily might’ve been a Heisman finalist if he hadn’t gotten sick or hurt or whatever held him out of the Air Force game. Between that, USC turning to Jayden Maiava for a spark, and Florida State at least having talent, we’ve got four low-upside, scary games left. We’d estimate Notre Dame will be favored by double digits in all of them, but there is a lot of work to do.
**
Go Irish. I’m not sure when we’ll next have a post up, but we should settle into a rhythm by January. Get excited about this basketball team. We will say it yet again: Good things are Shrewing.
