Notre Dame tips off in less than an hour, so the odds of you reading this before the Florida State game are low. My regrets.
It’s not a bad opportunity tonight. Florida State isn’t good, but they’re better than us, at least aimed towards the NIT bubble and above .500 entering the night. They’re coming off four straight losses, and their coach—legendary but also involved in a weird legal battle over NIL—just announced his retirement. It would be a respectable victory. We need those.
Not respectable in any form was Notre Dame’s loss to Miami on Saturday, which very well might have been the worst performance in the history of Notre Dame men’s basketball, context considered. It was worse than losing to The Citadel by twenty last year. It was worse than the Ball State loss in 2017–18. It was worse than that Big East Tournament loss to Rutgers which knocked us out of the NCAA Tournament in the mid-2000’s. It was a despicable, embarrassing performance, and all who participated in it should be as ashamed of themselves as they made us feel to belong to Notre Dame.
Thoughts on the program and this team, coming off that game and heading into tonight:
Another Blown Win
This marks five losses this year in which Notre Dame’s held an 80% chance of victory or better, going by ESPN’s in-game win probability. Some losses like that are to be expected. If ESPN’s number is properly calibrated, you should lose once every five times you get to 80%. Five is a lot, and in a lot of the five, the win probability peaked far above 80%.
Composure, and Matt Allocco’s Role
Composure is an issue. That was visible on Saturday night with Markus Burton, who resorted to shots out of rhythm and hero-ball and at one point I think attempted a bounce pass through the paint between three Miami defenders. That’s been visible with Tae Davis at times, like last Tuesday when he turned over the rebound before the Georgia Tech five-second violation. That was visible Saturday with Matt Allocco, who—and guys can miss their free throws, that isn’t exactly a choice—was clearly rattled after missing the second of the three which should have given the Irish a chance. I forget what I’ve said on this topic previously, but at the moment Braeden Shrewsberry seems like the player whose composure and confidence are highest in the closing minutes. Braeden Shrewsberry is so naturally chaotic that his non-meltdowns don’t really move the needle.
Burton and Davis and the rest are disappointing. They’ve played enough high-pressure basketball to be expected to navigate these situations. It’s Allocco, though, who’s the most frustrating.
Allocco is a major offensive threat who gets very few shots. He’s a defensive liability, partly because he makes virtually no attempt to rebound misses. Given these tendencies—an offense designed around Kebba Njie as much as him, devastating defensive shortcomings when he’s on the floor—my best estimate of his perceived value is that he’s out there because of experience. He’s supposed to be the steadying presence. He’s supposed to be the veteran guy. He played in these situations on bigger stages at Princeton.
This offseason, when Allocco’s commitment came through the wire, I think most of us reacted by saying, “Great shooter? Went to Princeton? Played on some real good teams there? Sounds like our kind of guy!” Our last good team featured an Ivy Leaguer who was indispensable. Another Ivy Leaguer, but this time with a game like Tim Abromaitis? Sign us up.
At this point, it’s clear Allocco isn’t having the intended effect. I’m not saying Micah Shrewsberry should bench him (contrarily, I’d still like to see him get more shots), but I have a theory that Allocco was supposed to elevate the talent around him. Instead, he’s a KitchenAid mixer, a fine accessory we hardly ever use.
Culture Problems, and Lessons From Mike Brey
Composure issues stem from culture issues, and while we don’t know what things are like inside that locker room, the on-court product indicates they’re bad. Not necessarily in a way where guys dislike each other, but in a way where the culture is not producing a winning team.
It’s worth remembering Mike Brey’s 2013–14 team, a bad unit with bad culture who was already a mess even before Jerian Grant’s suspension. (I do know a little of what went on in that locker room. Nothing sensational, but not great.) The next year? The best Notre Dame team in decades, largely thanks to…culture. Culture can turn around. It can also stay the same and, with a different mix of talent, become a positive. Brey’s culture was an issue on that 2013–14 team. With Grant back and Bonzie Colson around and a more mobile roster, Brey’s culture was an asset the next year.
Is Micah Shrewsberry too loose for this team? Will he be loose enough to let next year’s (or 2027’s) thrive? I don’t know. It’s dangerous to ask someone to build a culture like Mike Brey built. When it came to allowing confidence to blossom, nobody did it like Brey.
We need to hope, though, that this is a one-off issue. We need to hope that this kind of mental impotence is not a hallmark of Micah Shrewsberry’s teams. We know he’s a strong offensive mind. We know he’s an easy guy to like. We think he’s a good recruiter. If he can’t develop winning teams, those things won’t matter.
The Talent Isn’t Great
Having said all these things, it’s worth remembering that this was a team who, preseason, was expected to open on the road in the NIT. We aren’t aimed anywhere close to the NIT right now, but that’s not a gigantic difference. We’re maybe five or six seed lines lower than expected.
It’s not like Shrewsberry is struggling with a team full of McDonald’s All-Americans. Next year, the talent will be bigger, and in 2026–27, the talent will be a lot bigger. Things are still trending up. But Shrewsberry faces a big test these next six weeks, and that’s to keep a wobbling train on the rails.
Inconsistency As a Weapon
One more thought, before we talk about John Shumate:
When you’re good, inconsistency is bad.
When you’re bad, inconsistency is good.
It’s hard to read this too precisely, because every ACC opponent but Duke has been a bad team. But I’d offer that Notre Dame is inconsistent. We were a different team against UNC and Virginia than we were against Miami or NC State.
This might not turn out terribly. Against Virginia Tech and Boston College (and Florida State tonight), it’s risky. But against Louisville in a couple weeks, and against Clemson at the end of the month, and in the ACC Tournament? It’s not outlandish to think these guys could make a little noise.
It’d be less maddening to be a team who does what they should do. But given the hole these guys have dug, the volatile recipe (point guard tasked with creating up to 75% of scoring chances, one good shooter who’s willing to miss a lot, one good shooter who cannot find open looks, etc.) at least gives us a reason to keep tuning in.
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John Shumate passed away this week. He’s a legend whose number rightly hangs in the Joyce Center rafters. Most notably, he outdueled the late, great Bill Walton in that famous 1974 upset which ended UCLA’s 88-game win streak. If your browser can handle Sports Illustrated’s website, here’s their recap from that game. I wasn’t around and cannot say how special the game was, but it’s never felt more special to me than whenever I read that article.
