Ok, first of all, let me remind you all that a three-way Wild Card tie would be more chaotic than a four-way Wild Card tie. The four-way tie gives us two single-elimination games tomorrow, with the winners going to Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game. The three-way tie gives us consecutive do-or-die games tomorrow and Tuesday, a rescheduling of the Wild Card Game, and potentially a whole bunch of cross-country flights.
Alright, second of all, the NL West isn’t over yet! Amazingly, the 106-win Giants have yet to clinch, leading the Dodgers by just a game entering today. If the Giants lose to the Padres and the Dodgers beat the Brewers, there’ll be a Game 163 there, with the loser going to the Wild Card Game to play the Cardinals while the winner awaits in the NLDS. FanGraphs rates a tie here as 23% likely.
Now, third of all, AL Wild Card scenarios. Woohoo! Credit to Wesley Johnson on Twitter for putting together this helpful graphic to help with these:
Home-field and all that comes from my understanding of MLB’s tiebreaker rules. Probabilities from FanGraphs.
No Tiebreaker Game: 45.3% Likely
If the Red Sox and the Yankees both win, and/or the Mariners and Blue Jays both lose, it’s just Red Sox vs. Yankees in the Wild Card Game, with the Red Sox most likely hosting the Yankees by virtue of winning the regular season series (the Yankees would only host if they won and the other three all lost).
As you may have noticed, this is less than 50% likely. We’re more than 50% likely to have at least one tiebreaker game in the American League alone.
Two-Way Tie: 23.5% Likely
If one of the Red Sox and Yankees loses and the other wins, and if then one of the Mariners and Blue Jays loses and the other wins, we get a single tiebreaker game tomorrow for the second Wild Card spot. If the Red Sox are in this game, they’ll host it. If the Yankees play the Mariners, the Yankees will host. If the Yankees play the Blue Jays, the Blue Jays will host.
Three-Way Tie for One Spot: 17.8% Likely
If one of the Red Sox and Yankees loses and the other wins, and if then both the Mariners and Blue Jays win, we get a three-way tie for one playoff spot. If the Red Sox are in this scenario, I believe the teams would choose such that the Mariners hosted the Blue Jays tomorrow, with the winner hosting the Red Sox on Tuesday. If it’s the Yankees, I believe the teams would choose such that the Yankees would host the Mariners tomorrow, with the winner hosting the Blue Jays on Tuesday.
Three-Way Tie for Two Spots: 7.6% Likely
If the Red Sox and Yankees both lose, and if then one of the Mariners and Blue Jays loses and the other wins, we get a three-way tie for both Wild Card spots.
If the Blue Jays are in this scenario, I believe the Red Sox would host tomorrow’s game, from which the winner would advance to the Wild Card Game, and then the Blue Jays would get to choose whether to be the visitors tomorrow or the home team on Tuesday, and I assume they’d chose to be the visitors tomorrow, giving themselves two chances to win their way in. In other words, the Red Sox would likely host the Blue Jays tomorrow, with the loser visiting the Yankees on Tuesday.
If the Mariners are in this scenario, the Red Sox would still host tomorrow’s game, but the Yankees would have the choice of whether to be visitors tomorrow or the home team on Tuesday. Again, I assume they’d choose to be the visitors tomorrow, setting up a game between the Red Sox and Yankees in Boston tomorrow with the visitors heading to Seattle on Tuesday.
Four-Way Tie: 5.7% Likely
In a four-way tie, I believe the Red Sox would get to choose to be a home team tomorrow, the Blue Jays would also get to choose to be a home team tomorrow (unless they chose to visit the Red Sox, which seems unlikely for a few reasons), and the Yankees would get to choose who to play between the two, with the Mariners visiting the other. I would guess the Yankees would choose to play the Red Sox, but that’s up to the Yankees.
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Get excited! Unless you have a stake in one or more of these teams, in which case get nervous as hell.
