Rivalry Week. It goes fast, doesn’t it?
Let’s start with last night’s rankings, because they’re worth noting. Here’s how our model broke them down:
| Ranking | Team | Ranking w/o FPA | Est. Ranking Score | FPA | LW FPA | New FPA |
| 1 | Georgia | 1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 2 | 92.8 | -0.3 | -1.0 | 0.6 |
| 3 | Alabama | 4 | 92.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 6 | 92.5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | -0.5 |
| 5 | Michigan | 3 | 92.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 5 | 88.8 | -1.4 | -1.4 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 7 | 88.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Baylor | 10 | 84.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Mississippi | 15 | 82.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 9 | 81.8 | -3.0 | -4.6 | 1.6 |
| 11 | Oregon | 18 | 81.7 | 4.0 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 12 | Michigan State | 11 | 81.4 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -1.0 |
| 13 | BYU | 13 | 80.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 14 | Wisconsin | 12 | 78.2 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Texas A&M | 27 | 77.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Iowa | 14 | 77.0 | -2.1 | -2.7 | 0.6 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 21 | 76.7 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| 18 | Wake Forest | 20 | 76.3 | -1.1 | -3.4 | 2.2 |
| 19 | Utah | 17 | 76.2 | -1.4 | 0.3 | -1.8 |
| 20 | NC State | 25 | 76.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| 21 | San Diego State | 23 | 75.9 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 22 | UTSA | 8 | 75.9 | -9.3 | -11.0 | 1.8 |
| 23 | Clemson | 22 | 75.8 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| 24 | Houston | 19 | 75.6 | -1.8 | -3.4 | 1.6 |
| 25 | Arkansas | 31 | 74.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| NR | Louisiana-Lafayette | 16 | 74.3 | -4.0 | -0.6 | -3.4 |
| NR | Purdue | 24 | 74.2 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -0.2 |
| NR | Appalachian State | 26 | 74.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
Thoughts:
- Cincinnati hasn’t “made it” yet. They’re in the top four, but their best opponent remaining is ranked 24th, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play one another, with Oklahoma State then either playing a rematch with Oklahoma or playing Baylor next week. That’s a lot of top ten opponents, and it’s unclear if the committee values Group of Five championships the same way it values Power Five championships (our data suggests Group of Five championships count for…nothing).
- That said, the committee still doesn’t like Oklahoma. It took away a little of their negative FPA this week, but they still have the lowest total FPA in the top twenty. I’m curious how much of this is previous years weighing on the committee’s mind. Institutionalists would prefer giving Cincinnati a chance to get smacked over letting Oklahoma get blown out again, because if Oklahoma gets blown out again, the backlash figures to be bigger. Maybe they really don’t like this Oklahoma, though.
- That said too, Oklahoma State’s a narrow Big 12 favorite. They might not be the better team, but they’re close enough to be favored this weekend at home. And to bring this back to Cincinnati, the Pokes both grade out better than the Sooners and have some positive FPA at their back.
- There’s a little separation now between the top five and Notre Dame. This might be a product of how FPA functions in our model (Notre Dame could be closer to Michigan and our model might not know it), but the incremental FPA adjustments this week were small. We have a pretty good idea what the committee thinks of these teams at this stage, and it views them pretty closely to one another, with Notre Dame a step below.
- There’s still a lot of separation between Georgia and the field, which is part of what makes Alabama so interesting. If the Tide lose to Georgia, how does that change the committee’s perception of them? How much does margin matter? Ohio State losing to Michigan would sink the Buckeyes—they’re already on the precipice (and that Oregon loss might age even more poorly over these next two weeks). But Alabama losing to the Dawgs…there’s a justifiable argument for that not moving the needle (the counterargument is that the playoff shouldn’t pick a team that’s been demonstrated to not be as good as the best team in the playoff, but unfortunately for us, that’s not how the playoff was designed—they tell the committee to pick the “best” teams).
- Oregon’s FPA was reduced, but not all the way. It’s striking how different the committee’s view of them is from its view of Utah. A lot of FPA seems to be conference-specific (see: SEC West, Conference USA), and that might be the case with Utah, but that win in Columbus still carries a ton of weight with the committee. Maybe that’s fair.
On that last point, here’s where each conference lands in total FPA treatment:
| Conference | FPA-Relevant Teams | Total FPA | FPA/Team |
| SEC | 5 | 18.4 | 3.7 |
| Pac 12 | 2 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| American | 2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| ACC | 4 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Independents | 2 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Mountain West | 1 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Big 12 | 3 | -1.4 | -0.5 |
| Big Ten | 6 | -4.5 | -0.7 |
| Sun Belt | 2 | -4.5 | -2.2 |
| Conference USA | 1 | -9.3 | -9.3 |
Thoughts on this (and a reminder—FPA is relative to precedent, and you can read more about it here):
- The SEC getting so much love is fair, especially with four of the five teams (and all of the FPA, since Georgia’s so far ahead) coming from the West.
- Similarly, if you divide the Big Ten into East and West, the East has positive FPA and the West has negative, on the aggregate. This also seems fair.
- The American is treated differently from the Sun Belt which is treated differently from Conference USA. Again, fair (though 9.3 is a lot to be putting on UTSA). With only one Mountain West team in the mix, it’s hard to cast much judgment on the committee’s treatment of that league.
- Overall…is the committee doing a good job? What a controversial take from our model.
Alright. Let’s talk about this week.
There are six playoff lanes remaining. I’ll list them in reverse order of their risk of closing this week:
The Big 12 Lane
The Big 12 lane is somewhat peripheral, but it can’t close this week, because Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State, meaning one of them has to come out of Bedlam 11-1.
The Big Ten Lane
This one can’t close either. Either Michigan comes out of the weekend 11-1 or Ohio State comes out of the weekend 11-1.
The SEC Champion Lane
Again, can’t close, though it could technically take a really hard hit if Georgia Tech and Auburn both do the surprising. The probability of this happening, per ESPN’s SP+, is 0.7%.
The Other SEC Lane
I don’t think this one can close unless that 0.7% thing happens. If Alabama dips to 10-2 but then beats Georgia, are they in? And is Georgia still in at 12-1? Precedent would suggest…yes. At least for Georgia.
The Notre Dame Lane
This one’s rated as only eight percent likely to close, by SP+. The Irish visit Stanford, who is 3-8 and beat Oregon. It, like the Big 12 lane, is peripheral, but Irish fans are hoping, and their hope is justified.
The Cincinnati Lane
The team at the most risk of elimination on the weekend is Cincinnati, who visits East Carolina. SP+ gives the Bearcats an 84% chance of surviving and reaching 12-0.
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Overall, then, we’ve really got only something like a one-in-four chance of even one lane closing. It should be a chalky week in that sense. But there’s still plenty going on.
If you’re curious, here’s every conference championship scenario, in all ten leagues. There are 33 teams in the mix.
Now, the games:
The Main Characters
Cincinnati @ East Carolina – Friday, 3:30 PM EST; ABC
The Bearcats, as said, go to ECU this weekend as a two-touchdown favorite. Short week, solid team (the Pirates are 7-4, with a win over Memphis and only one loss by more than one score). Dangerous one for Cincy.
Georgia @ Georgia Tech – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; ABC
The Dawgs are not in danger, coming to Atlanta favored by five…touchdowns. And extra points. Big spread here.
Ohio State @ Michigan – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; FOX
Just because no lanes will close doesn’t mean teams won’t get eliminated. Michigan and Ohio State meet in Ann Arbor with the spread currently around eight. The Wolverines might have their best team since 2016, if not their best team since 1997. (Remember how badly Ohio State lost to Clemson in ’16?) It probably won’t be enough. But hey…it could be.
Alabama @ Auburn – Saturday, 3:30 PM EST; CBS
Afternoon Iron Bowl this year. I don’t know what that means, but everything in the Iron Bowl feels like it means something. Bama’s favored by about twenty.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State – Saturday, 7:30 PM EST; ABC
Nighttime Big 12 action has something chaotic about it, which fits well with the name “Bedlam.” I always want to write Bedlam with an exclamation point at the end. Like Moulin Rouge.
Notre Dame @ Stanford – Saturday, 8:00 PM EST; FOX
Like Alabama, Notre Dame’s favored by about twenty here on the road.
The Supporting Cast
Mississippi @ Mississippi State – Thursday, 7:30 PM EST; ESPN
The Egg Bowl might matter, with Mississippi kind of our “team in waiting” at the moment, with possibly the best case outside of those in the six lanes. It would be shocking if three of the lanes were to close, but if they do, and if they do it in a certain way, Lane Kiffin’s guys might be in the mix.
Iowa @ Nebraska – Friday, 1:30 PM EST; BTN
Iowa probably won’t make the Big Ten Championship, but if they win this, they have a chance, and that’s enough to justify keeping an eye on them. The West champion has a chance to play spoiler, and in the most chaotic of scenarios, it’s possible Iowa could have a playoff case if they do somehow finish 11-2.
Houston @ UConn – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; CBSSN
Houston’s a massive favorite here, and they don’t need to cover or anything for their own sake, but avoiding any trouble would help Cincinnati in the scenario in which the Bearcats win out. Cincinnati wants Houston to be thought of highly.
Texas Tech @ Baylor – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; FS1
Baylor makes the Big 12 Championship if they win and Oklahoma State wins in Stillwater. You could argue that they, like Mississippi, are a team in waiting, but they’ve got a bigger role as a potential second notch in Oklahoma State’s belt.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota – Saturday, 4:00 PM EST; FOX
Speaking of notches and belts, Wisconsin’s currently the best win for both Michigan and Notre Dame. If Michigan’s in the mix, that will have changed, but Notre Dame’s not getting anybody better.
Wisconsin also has a path to winning the Big Ten, and it’s as simple as winning each of these next two games. That could shake things up.
Thirteen More Fun Ones
Boise State @ San Diego State – Friday, 12:00 PM EST; CBS
This game’s in its own timeslot, has some big Mountain West implications, and has a tiny spread. Good time all around.
Missouri @ Arkansas – Friday, 3:30 PM EST; CBS
Just fun.
North Carolina @ NC State – Friday, 7:00 PM EST; ESPN
This could play a big role in the ACC race, in addition to being a rivalry game.
Washington State @ Washington – Friday, 8:00 PM EST; FS1
Wazzu has an outside shot at winning the Pac-12 still, and they’re actually a narrow favorite here, looking for their first win in the series since 2012.
Wake Forest @ Boston College – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; ESPN2
The other ACC game of consequence. Wake Forest is in the ACC Championship with a win. If they lose, it goes to NC State or Clemson.
Florida State @ Florida – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST; ESPN
Winner goes bowling. If Florida would accept the bid.
UTSA @ North Texas – Saturday, 2:00 PM EST; ESPN+
UTSA tries to get to 12-0 as about a ten-point favorite in Denton.
Oregon State @ Oregon – Saturday, 3:30 PM EST; ESPN
Pac-12 championship implications, only a seven-point spread, top ten team involved…fun stuff.
Penn State @ Michigan State – Saturday, 3:30 PM EST; ABC
No conference title implications, but should be a good game.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia – Saturday, 3:45 PM EST; ACCN
Virginia Tech’s trying to get its sixth win. UVA’s trying to regain the upper hand.
Texas A&M @ LSU – Saturday, 7:00 PM EST; ESPN
Again, nothing to do with the SEC Championship, but should be a decent game.
Clemson @ South Carolina – Saturday, 7:30 PM EST; SECN
I’d guess this is the closest the spread (Clemson by a touchdown and a half, at the moment) has been in years for this one.
Kentucky @ Louisville – Saturday, 7:30 PM EST; ESPN2
Another rivalry game with a tight spread.
Viewing Schedule
We start Thursday night with the Egg Bowl. Friday, we begin with that Boise State/San Diego State game before switching to Cincinnati/ECU. After them, I’m more interested in UNC/NCSU than Washington/Wazzu, but take your pick. Saturday, the day starts with Michigan/Ohio State, and then we kind of have to go with the Iron Bowl in the afternoon, just in case. At night, it’s Bedlam, with USC hosting BYU after dark.
Overall, we should go from six lanes to six teams this week. But more chaos is surely possible, and regardless of who wins ‘em, there’ll be great games along the way.
