Two steps closer to our eventual champions.
What Happened
Houston 10, Chicago (AL) 1
Did Tony La Russa leave Carlos Rodón in too long? Maybe. It’s hard to give it much thought, given how the game ended.
The White Sox led after two, Rodón working past leadoff runners each inning and Gavin Sheets homering off the top of the wall to make it 1-0 in favor of the home team.
Then, it started.
With two outs in the third and Jose Altuve stealing second, Rodón walked Alex Bregman. With two outs, Altuve on second, and Bregman on first, Rodón walked Yordan Alvarez. With two outs and the bases loaded, Rodón allowed a two-run double to Carlos Correa.
La Russa called on Michael Kopech, then, and Kopech got out of it, but in the fourth, the Astros really roared to life. Kyle Tucker hit a leadoff single, stole second and third, and scored with one out on a Martín Maldonado single. After an Altuve single, La Russa pulled Kopech in favor of Garrett Crochet, but after striking out Michael Brantley, Crochet allowed a Bregman double that brought in two more, and from there, the Astros just kept adding. One more in the sixth. One more in the eighth. Three more in the ninth, and on to their fifth straight ALCS, where they’ll meet their 2018 vanquisher, the Boston Red Sox.
Atlanta 5, Milwaukee 4
Two pitchers started on three days’ rest last night, and since three days’ rest tends to not be particularly kind for pitchers, it’s worth talking through the reasoning on both.
For Atlanta, the choice was either Charlie Morton after three days off or a well-rested Huascar Ynoa. Morton’s significantly better than Ynoa—not quite a run per nine innings better. Additionally, Atlanta had Game 2 starter Max Fried lined up to start Game 5 on normal rest, if necessary, making the Game 5 tradeoff a lot smaller. Was it the right call? I don’t know. But if Morton and Fried are comparable and Morton’s still better than Ynoa even on short rest, it adds up, and Morton pitched well enough for few to complain: Ten outs. Five strikeouts. One walk. Two earned runs.
Ynoa did get into the game, and with Atlanta having tied it up on an Eddie Rosario bases-loaded, two-out single in the fourth, gave the lead back to the Brewers, as Rowdy Tellez homered for the second time this series. But Atlanta answered again, with Travis d’Arnaud hitting a two-out single of his own to bring in the fourth run and set up a dramatic finale.
Craig Counsell turned to Brandon Woodruff, the Game 2 starter who’d rested for just two days after throwing 91 pitches. The big man held the line, working out of a two-out jam upon entering in the sixth before pitching a scoreless seventh.
Now, there’s something you should know about Josh Hader, and that’s that if you’re looking for a guy to throw one scoreless inning, he’s arguably your best bet. In the whole world. Maybe it’s Jacob deGrom. But even if it is…that’s good company.
Another thing you should know about Josh Hader is that he rarely allows home runs to left-handed batters. Seven, in his whole regular season career. He allowed one to Jason Heyward last summer and I yelped in my car, listening on the radio. I double-checked that Hader hadn’t been pulled without me knowing it.
So, when Counsell brought Hader in to face the turn of the Atlanta order in the eighth, with Freddie Freeman due up third, it was the most reasonable thing in the world.
Sometimes, the reasonable thing doesn’t work out.
Freddie Freeman took Josh Hader yard, and a scoreless ninth from Will Smith later, Atlanta was headed back to the NLCS.
Los Angeles 7, San Francisco 2
For the Dodgers, there was one key difference from Atlanta with regard to the three days’ rest decision: They were facing elimination.
The options were seemingly Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin, with the gap even wider than the Morton/Ynoa gap in full-rest quality. The Dodgers needed to win. They turned to Buehler to give them a chance.
Buehler gave them a great chance, pitching into the fifth and leaving with the Giants scoreless. Joe Kelly allowed one inherited runner to score, but the Dodgers already had a 4-1 lead at that point, and the Giants never got closer than a three-run deficit the rest of the way.
Back to San Francisco for a winner-take-all Game 5 tomorrow night.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Freeman (0.31)
- Correa (0.23)
- Buehler (0.17)
- Smith (0.17)
- Woodruff (0.17)
- d’Arnaud (0.15)
What It Means
Atlanta gets to rest Fried that much more and line him up for Game 1, though they don’t know whether they’ll be at home or in California, and won’t until late Thursday night. The Astros don’t have to burn another pitcher today. Julio Urías and Logan Webb will square off tomorrow in about as good of a Game 5 as you could hope for.
League-wide, FanGraphs now has the Astros and Red Sox tied as World Series favorites at 26.5%, though the Dodgers aren’t far behind. It has the Red Sox narrowly favored to win the AL (50.1%) and Atlanta narrowly favored to win the NL (40.4%). The market disagrees, favoring the Astros to win it all, followed by the Dodgers, followed by the Giants, followed by the Red Sox, with the Dodgers NL favorites over Atlanta and the Astros AL favorites over Boston.
For the White Sox and Brewers, it’s offseason time, and while each has a promising young core, every opportunity missed hurts. The Brewers have major offensive issues to work out, starting with the startingly impotent Christian Yelich. The White Sox have another awkward year with La Russa likely ahead of them. Rodón and Leury García are the biggest impending free agents for Chicago. Freddy Peralta and Avisaíl García are the biggest for Milwaukee.
Other Notes
- Brusdar Graterol and Kelly were each throwing gas last night, with Kelly hitting 100 and Graterol hitting 103 mph.
- The Dodgers’ Will Smith had a good day of his own, crushing an eighth-inning home run after doubling earlier.
- Mookie Betts homered for the Dodgers, Gavin Lux was on base four times, Corey Seager and Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger each had a pair of hits.
- Kris Bryant reached base three times for the Giants.
- In addition to the home run, Freeman also singled and doubled.
- Adam Duvall had another miscue on the bases, getting doubled off second after trying to score on what he thought was a blooper but turned out to be a rather routine fly ball. He and Ozzie Albies each had two hits for Atlanta.
- d’Arnaud was on base three times, walking twice in addition to the single.
- Lorenzo Cain had two hits for the Brewers.
- Altuve homered in the ninth for the Astros as part of a three-hit day. Brantley also had three hits, with Correa and Yuli Gurriel notching two apiece.
- Sheets doubled in addition to homering.
- Before the game yesterday, Jorge Soler tested positive for the coronavirus. It’s unclear how long he’ll be out.
- Tommy La Stella exited the late game after fielding a ball at second base. He’s been dealing with an Achilles problem.
- Jake Meyers hurt his shoulder trying to rob the Sheets home run.
- Lance McCullers Jr. exited the game with forearm tightness after four innings, a concerning development for the Astros and one that, even if it doesn’t completely sideline McCullers, figures to limit his usage.
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No games today, but we’ll be back tomorrow with the Dodgers/Giants preview.
