Final Four Probabilities: How Big Is Indiana State’s Home-Crowd Advantage?

Last week, we asked how much UConn’s home-crowd advantage in Boston would impact the outcome of the NCAA Tournament’s East Regional. It’s unknowable how impactful it was, but it was an important variable, and it remains one, with UConn now onto a round (likely two) on a much more neutral court.

Today, we’re doing the same exercise with Indiana State. The NIT Final Four is at Hinkle Fieldhouse, in Indianapolis. The crowd is expected to be highly sympathetic to the Sycamores.

Here’s what we find, in both percentage and “true odds” (no take from the sportsbook) form:

If Hinkle is a true neutral, Indiana State isn’t meaningfully likelier than Utah or Seton Hall to win this championship. If Hinkle is half-neutral? The Sycamores separate. If Hinkle is a full home court for Indiana State, then the gap not only grows wider, but Utah dips ever so slightly behind Seton Hall in the odds. (This is close enough that it might just be randomness from the Monte Carlo nature of our model.)

The point is that even though home court advantage might only be worth three points or so in college basketball, it adds up, even over a sample of only two games. Indiana State is the favorite this week, more likely to win than any other team. Indiana State is not likelier to win than the rest of the field, taken as a whole. The question is where in that window the Sycamores’ championship chances stand.

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