It’s…it’s a fine week. There are good games. There just aren’t really that any big games. Some might turn out to be big, but expectations-wise, we’re looking more at the part of the college football iceberg that’s under the water. There’s a lot going on, but it’s mostly not going to be impactful as far as the part above the water—the playoff part—goes.
All games Saturday unless otherwise noted.
The Big One
Nothing. Sorry. No big one this week. There is not a single big game. We will not lie to you.
Contenders and Factors
Sparknotes for those new here: A contender is a team it’s reasonable to expect will make the playoff, a factor is a team it’s reasonable to expect could make the playoff. Mileage may vary, but for contenders, we have Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Alabama; and for factors, we have Cincinnati, Michigan, and Oregon.
Oklahoma @ Kansas – 12:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Tennessee @ Alabama – 7:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Ohio State @ Indiana – 7:30 PM EDT, ABC
Georgia’s idle this weekend, but the other contenders all play eminently winnable games, albeit one with some memories of trepidation for the Buckeyes. Each is, as of right now, favored by at least three scores.
Cincinnati @ Navy – 12:00 PM EDT, ESPN2
Northwestern @ Michigan – 12:00 PM EDT, FOX
Speaking of teams favored by three or more scores, here are Cincinnati and Michigan.
Oregon @ UCLA – 3:30 PM EDT, ABC
This should be a good time, and its stakes are high, with Oregon possessing one great win and a whole lot of nothin’. UCLA’s a narrow favorite, meaning we could well be about to declare the Pac-12 dream dead yet again (at least for the moment—we may be trending towards a two-loss playoff team for the first time, and Oregon did beat Ohio State in Columbus), and with Oregon still needing to visit Washington and Utah and, in all cases in which this all matters nationally, play in the Pac-12 Championship, escaping this wouldn’t be some Andy Dufresne moment for the Ducks. It would be a serious bullet dodged.
That said, if Oregon whoops ‘em, we may feel more comfortable having them in this stratum to begin with. So there’s that.
Teams We Have to Note
There are seventeen teams currently looking at a “traditional” playoff path, meaning one that’s been trodden before, meaning winning a Power Five title with no losses or one loss or not winning a Power Five title but being a Power Five team and losing only one game. Many are mentioned below. Six are mentioned above. Michigan State, Iowa, Baylor, and Kentucky are idle. The rest can be found here, alongside the Group of Five undefeateds not named Cincinnati and not mentioned below.
Illinois @ Penn State – 12:00 PM EDT, ABC
Well, guess it’s only Penn State. They host Illinois. Should be routine.
The Fourteen Other Good Ones
And, finally, just the good games (besides that Oregon/UCLA one, which is good but not big).
Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian State – Wednesday, 7:30 PM EDT, ESPN2
The Chanticleers only beat Buffalo by a field goal, but every other game they’ve won by at least 27 points. Appalachian State’s not what they’ve sometimes been, and is coming off a bludgeoning at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette, but they’re expected to give Coastal Carolina a game. Within the Sun Belt, this could be the deciding game in who faces ULL in the conference championship. Lot of football to be played, so maybe not, but it could be!
Tulane @ SMU – Thursday, 7:30 PM EDT, ESPN
Shouldn’t be a great game, but it might be. SMU’s trying to stay unbeaten, they’re playing at home, Tulane’s often fun. Not bad for a Thursday night.
Wake Forest @ Army – 12:00 PM EDT, CBSSN
Clemson @ Pittsburgh – 3:30 PM EDT, ESPN
North Carolina State @ Miami – 7:30 PM EDT, ESPN2
I’m not convinced Clemson isn’t going to make the playoff. One of their losses was to Georgia at a neutral site, their other loss was to a team that’s currently ranked, they have a path to winning the ACC, and they have as many as seven more games to accumulate style points. Sorry to lead this section with Clemson, but I don’t think they’re dead. Someone has to make it.
Anyway, the Tigers are actually an underdog at Pitt this weekend, which is a good counterpoint to that claim I just made, though the counter-counterpoint is that Pitt’s actually pretty good. Pitt’s schedule from here goes Miami (H), Duke (A), UNC (H), Virginia (H), Syracuse (A), and then probably the ACC Championship, and I mean that word “probably” in the literal sense, given they’ve beaten the only team within a game of them in the Coastal. So, they could turn into a factor soon. As long as the committee gets confused about who Western Michigan is.
Meanwhile, NC State tries to stay in the driver’s seat in the Atlantic, going to Coral Gables a narrow favorite, and Wake Forest tries to stay undefeated overall, visiting Army as, you guessed it, a narrow favorite. This, as we’ll circle back to, is the best game in the noon slot.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State – 3:30 PM EDT, FOX
Oklahoma State’s undefeated and a touchdown underdog in Ames, where Iowa State could vault themselves to second in the Big 12 race with a win (by the right margin—long tiebreaker explanation, but ISU has a weird incentive to not win by more than 17). The Pokes have already gotten through Baylor and Texas, and they host Oklahoma this year, meaning they might be a factor if they can win this game (we’d have to check things like SP+).
LSU @ Mississippi – 3:30 PM EDT, CBS
Ed Orgeron’s still on the sideline for LSU, meaning any distractions this week at least weren’t accompanied by a changing of the guard. Meanwhile, Mississippi has a not-that-unrealistic path to finishing 11-1, having only lost to Alabama. Unless Alabama loses again, that wouldn’t get them a seat in the SEC Championship, but if the playoff committee’s hunting…three-bid SEC? (*hurls at the thought of the discourse*)
USC @ Notre Dame – 7:30 PM EDT, NBC
Notre Dame’s primary importance is to be the vanquished opponent Cincinnati points at when they yell, “HEY! LOOK AT THIS!” They’re only a touchdown favorite against the Trojans, but the rest of their schedule’s rather manageable, and if I were an Irish fan I’d be telling myself to not get hopeful but I’d also be struggling to listen. Technically, Notre Dame’s in our category of teams with “traditional” playoff paths. They, like many in that category, have a near-zero chance (if not actually zero) of getting the call.
San Diego State @ Air Force – 7:00 PM EDT, CBSSN
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech – 7:00 PM EDT, Stadium
UTSA’s currently a touchdown favorite. San Diego State’s currently a field goal underdog. Each is trying to stay undefeated, hoping to catch a break from the rest of the Group of Five and find its way into a New Year’s Six bowl. (San Diego State may have a bizarre, Utah-centric path, but we’re legitimate chaos and not just normal, has-been-a-while-since-we’ve-seen-it chaos away from that being any point of discussion. Also, San Diego State is, again, an underdog.) It’s a bummer that ESPN didn’t make this College Gameday (think of the mountains!), but oh well. Good for Air Force for being solid this year.
Harvard @ Princeton – 1:00 PM EDT, ESPN+
Northern Iowa @ South Dakota State – 3:00 PM EDT, ESPN3
Missouri State @ North Dakota State – 3:30 PM EDT, ESPN+
Weber State @ Eastern Washington – 4:00 PM EDT, ESPN+
Northern Iowa and Weber State each try to put a little life into their FCS playoff hopes as big road underdogs. Missouri State tries to take down a giant in Fargo. Harvard and Princeton play for the right to be Dartmouth’s more significant challenger over these next two weeks for the Ivy League crown. Nothing great in the MEAC or SWAC.
Viewing Schedule
Tonight, Coastal/Appalachian State. Tomorrow, Tulane/SMU (then the SJSU/UNLV game if you’re starving). Friday, Memphis/UCF isn’t bad, and then either of the Colorado State/Utah State or Washington/Arizona games is fine. Saturday…
I think Wake vs. Army is the game to watch in the noon slot. Mid-afternoon, fine, go with Oregon/UCLA (Clemson/Pitt is my personal preference). Primetime is bad, but I do think SDSU/Air Force is compelling. No Pac-12 After Dark for some reason, so you’re really empty unless you can find the NMSU/Hawaii game and you want to find the NMSU/Hawaii game.
