FCS Playoff Probabilities: Second Round, 2023

After one week of the FCS Playoffs, the probabilities from our model look like this (they’re included below as well, for archival purposes, but formatting is more of an issue with the table below). How we got there, and what it all means:

• Sacramento State 42, North Dakota 35: North Dakota came back to tie this twice, but the Fighting Hawks never took the lead, finishing 3–3 over their last six games after the blowout upset of North Dakota State. Sacramento State isn’t what it was last year, but it lives to see another day, and it draws a pretty favorable 3-seed in the second round, even if it has to fly back to the Dakota Territory again to play them.
• Richmond 49, North Carolina Central 27: Some early aggression from Richmond didn’t work out, but the Spiders overwhelmed NCCU, especially in the second half. Richmond closed the game on a 42–7 run. The NCCU loss is a bad look for the MEAC, where an 8–1 start had the Eagles ranked strongly in the FCS poll of record despite the team not being all that good. For Richmond, it’s a heartening win, with the program in a bit of no-man’s land as the FCS’s Southeastern powers continue to leave town for the FBS. In the shorter term, Richmond will play conference rival Albany for the first time this season.
• Delaware 36, Lafayette 34: Another year, another Patriot League team making postseason noise. Lafayette led this 28–7 at one point and retook the lead halfway through the fourth quarter, but Delaware made a field goal with 1:37 on the clock and took the ball away on a fumble to stop the Leopards’ two-minute drill. A tough end to a great year for Lafayette, while Delaware’s now a significant underdog in Missoula in what should be their final FCS playoff game of all time, with the program reportedly beginning its FBS transition this coming summer.
• Mercer 17, Gardner-Webb 7: Mercer got two second-quarter touchdown runs from quarterback Carter Peevy, the second a 72-yarder, and that was the game. To be honest, we didn’t have eyes on this at all on Saturday. The Bears now get the honor of visiting Brookings as something like a 28-point underdog.
• Southern Illinois 35, Nicholls 0: This was a mismatch and SIU showed it, leading 21–0 before the first quarter was even up. If the Salukis can win their late-night game at the Kibbie Dome, they’ll be some sort of national title contender, but the degree of that is up in the air. The Southland has really bottomed out with Sam Houston leaving and with G.J. Kinne moving on from Incarnate Word.
• Chattanooga 24, Austin Peay 21: True to form, the Governors were involved in one of the most dramatic games of the FCS day, with UTC winning on a last-second field goal after a nice little comeback by APSU. The Mocs get a second crack at Furman now in the SoCon’s second championship. Not a bad playoffs for the SoCon so far.
• North Dakota State 66, Drake 3: It’s hard to score 66 points when you only throw thirteen passes, but after fumbling on their first offensive play and allowing a field goal to give the Bulldogs a 3–0 lead, NDSU did just that, tightening up and bulldozing the Pioneer League champions. It’s hard to do what NDSU did, even if the win was easy. They’re not what they were, but don’t write them off yet. Two of the best four teams in the country are playing this weekend in Bozeman.
• Youngstown State 40, Duquesne 7: The Penguins rolled through NEC champion Duquesne, giving the MVFC a fifth team in the second round. Youngstown State’s got the toughest matchup of the five, playing Villanova on the road, and that should stand as an interesting test of how the CAA measures up. One interesting data point: Youngstown State drew less of a crowd for this game than they did for their first-round NIT game against Oklahoma State. That probably isn’t a good sign for the FCS, where Youngstown State reached the national championship as recently as 2016. It’s a good anecdote for the NIT, though.

The championship picture, categorized:

The Favorite: South Dakota State

One thing about this bracket that doesn’t help SDSU is that there’s above an 80% chance they have to play one of Montana, North Dakota State, and Montana State on a neutral field after a few weeks of rest. The rest and preparation time can work both ways, and it does help to have such a clear path to the title game, but we’d imagine SDSU would at least rather get their toughest game at home. The national championship’s poised right now to have a single-digit line.

Contenders: Montana, North Dakota State, Montana State

These are the next three, with a big gap ahead of everybody else, even with what Idaho did to Montana State at home this year. The overall body of work from these three is just so much better. Montana State gave South Dakota State a game early in the year in Brookings. Montana has been a steamroller since the Northern Arizona loss. North Dakota State has played its best three games of the season all in a row since losing the Dakota Marker game.

Factors: Everybody Else

There isn’t really anybody in the field who’s an afterthought. Mercer, the team closest to that designation, is about the same on paper as Chattanooga and Delaware. They just happened to draw South Dakota State in the second round. All 16 teams are among the top 22 by Movelor, and only two games this weekend are projected to feature teams favored by more than two possessions. The FCS playoff format is working well, even if one might argue its size gave NDSU too much margin for error as they dinked around in the regular season (I would argue this).

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The probabilities: