One day in, we’re down to sixteen FCS teams, and of the nine that entered with better than a 1-in-100 shot at a title, per Movelor, only Idaho has been eliminated. Still, the picture has changed. Of the eight winners, six outperformed Movelor’s expectations while Montana and Weber State underperformed. The end result of this—Idaho’s loss, strong performances by Furman and others, the underwhelm in Missoula and Ogden—is that the Griz and the Beekeepers are each less likely to win the national championship than they were yesterday morning, even though each got through a respectable first round opponent. North Dakota State and Montana State’s chances are up. South Dakota State’s number is unmoved.
We’ll likely have more to say about the second round later this week, but for the moment, here are the numbers. First, Movelor’s updated rating for each of the remaining sixteen teams:
| Team | Movelor |
| South Dakota State | 18.6 |
| Sacramento State | 17.6 |
| North Dakota State | 15.8 |
| Montana State | 15.4 |
| Incarnate Word | 14.9 |
| Montana | 13.5 |
| Weber State | 9.9 |
| Furman | 6.4 |
| Samford | 4.9 |
| Richmond | 4.0 |
| William & Mary | 3.3 |
| Southeastern Louisiana | 1.6 |
| Holy Cross | 0.9 |
| Delaware | -2.6 |
| New Hampshire | -2.7 |
| Gardner-Webb | -2.8 |
And next, the round-by-round advancement probabilities from 10,000 Movelor simulations:
| Team | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Championship | Champion |
| South Dakota State | 94.4% | 85.7% | 58.6% | 30.9% |
| Sacramento State | 86.2% | 57.6% | 38.4% | 20.8% |
| North Dakota State | 64.1% | 53.4% | 26.2% | 14.0% |
| Montana State | 72.4% | 62.3% | 27.6% | 13.6% |
| Incarnate Word | 79.2% | 33.2% | 17.1% | 8.7% |
| Montana | 35.9% | 25.7% | 10.2% | 5.4% |
| Weber State | 27.6% | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.7% |
| Samford | 66.5% | 14.8% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| William & Mary | 73.5% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Furman | 20.8% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Holy Cross | 65.9% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Richmond | 13.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Southeastern Louisiana | 33.5% | 6.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Gardner-Webb | 26.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Delaware | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| New Hampshire | 34.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Should be a good one in Fargo this Saturday afternoon.
