FCS Playoff Probabilities: 2023 Quarterfinals

Two weeks into the FCS Playoffs, the probabilities from our model look like this (they’re included below as well, for archival purposes, but formatting is more of an issue with the table below). How we got there, and what it all means:

• South Dakota State 41, Mercer 0: No surprises here. South Dakota State crushed a Mercer team thought to be rather comfortably behind the SoCon’s top tier. The Bears did hold on for a while—this was only a 3–0 game exiting the first quarter—but in the second, the Jacks pulled away, and they did not look back. Annihilation.
• Montana 49, Delaware 19: In Delaware’s final FCS playoff game, it was all Griz, with Montana leading 35–6 in the snow before the game was halfway done. The Northern Arizona loss and the struggle against Ferris State each might as well have happened in a different universe. Since September, Montana has done everything we’d expect South Dakota State to do.
• South Dakota 34, Sacramento State 24: This one had upset potential, but the early kick may have helped the Coyotes, who grabbed a 17–0 lead early in the second quarter on a Mi’Quise Grace scoop and score. From there, Sacramento State never got it closer than a ten-point margin.
• Idaho 20, Southern Illinois 17 (OT): Three of Idaho’s five home games so far this year have been decided by three points or fewer, and the Vandals are now 4–2 in all games decided by single digits. Against SIU, it took until the final five minutes for Idaho to score an offensive touchdown, but that tied the game, and after a blocked field goal to end regulation and an interception on the Salukis’ overtime possession, Idaho kicker Ricardo Chavez converted on the game-winner. The line this weekend? Single digits.
• Albany 41, Richmond 13: The punking here was unexpected, with Richmond failing to rally from this particular early deficit while Reese Poffenbarger accounted for four combined touchdowns for the Great Danes on the ground and through the air. For as arbitrary as that CAA tiebreaker process was, it’s fair to take it as having obtained its best team a bye. That team is Albany.
• North Dakota State 35, Montana State 34 (OT): The best game of the weekend at the FCS level, and possibly at any level, NDSU’s triumph over Montana State looked to be sticking with the Cats until the last possible moment. Even after Tommy Mellott went down and Sean Chambers came up limping, Montana State looked the better team, but whether the final kick was a mis-kick or a straight-up block, it hit a Bison hand rather than passing through the uprights. The worst NDSU season in recent memory lives to see another week, and now the Bison are favorites on the road in Vermillion.
• Furman 26, Chattanooga 7: What would these playoffs look like if Furman had done its job against Wofford? It’s fair to guess the Paladins could have been the 2-seed or 3-seed, meaning they’d either be hosting NDSU or Albany after their second dispatching of UTC this year. Instead, they have to go to Missoula on a Friday night. The odds are stacked against them.
• Villanova 45, Youngstown State 28: This was a little bit of a surprise, and it wasn’t even as close as this final score makes it look. Villanova led by 20 or more points for portions of the fourth quarter, carving the Penguins up through the air. Like Furman, Villanova faces a brutal road test in the quarters (theirs is against SDSU), but Holy Cross gave SDSU a game in this position last year. It’s not absurd to think Nova could do the same.

The championship picture, categorized:

The Favorite: South Dakota State

The Jacks remain the FCS favorite, and their stock improved a little on the aggregate over the weekend, even with Montana State failing to take out NDSU. The fear for South Dakota State is that Montana, whom the Jacks haven’t played head-to-head, is as good as they’ve been playing. At the moment, though, South Dakota State is well above 50% in championship probability, and that could rise further this weekend.

Contenders: Montana, North Dakota State

There’s a big drop-off after Montana and NDSU, but if the two meet, the game will be just as good on paper as Montana State vs. NDSU was on the field. There’s roughly a 60% chance, per our model, of that happening.

Factors: Everybody Else

The thing about even Furman and Villanova’s situations is that if they do win, they’re immediately in a favored position. North Dakota State can’t host from here. Idaho and Albany are down by Furman and Villanova’s segment of the world. As for Idaho and Albany, as well as South Dakota: Idaho has hung with Montana and beaten Montana State, who hung with South Dakota State. Albany just rocked someone pretty good. South Dakota beat NDSU in the teams’ first meeting, and they get the Bison at home. Only Furman and Villanova aren’t believable champions, but even they just need one upset to change that. It’s not like they need to do the unthinkable twice.

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The probabilities: