This page is archived from the end of the 2023 season. For all 2024 Movelor information, please visit this page.
Below you can find our college football model’s probabilities for the FCS Playoffs. These probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining games, using Movelor—our model’s rating system—to set individual game probabilities and adjust future probabilities based on simulated results. Here is how Movelor works. If you’re interested in more Movelor data, including this week’s predictions, that can be found through this menu.
Last Updated: Through Games of Saturday 12/16
| Team | Reach 2R | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Chmp | National Champions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.7% |
| Montana | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 23.3% |
| North Dakota State | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Albany | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Idaho | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villanova | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Furman | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Montana State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Illinois | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richmond | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Youngstown State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chattanooga | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mercer | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Peay | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholls | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina Central | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lafayette | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duquesne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |