The FCS playoff field is set. You can see the bracket here. North Dakota State is the favorite, followed by Montana State. How big of favorites are they? Here’s what our model has to say:
North Dakota State: 51%
This is a very good North Dakota State team. We don’t know if they’re great yet to the degree that some NDSU teams have been great. They’re favored over the rest of the 24-team field, which is a big field to be favored over, but again—that’s not that unusual for these guys. And they’re only barely over 50%. We have seen bigger favorites entering the FCS Playoffs.
Montana State: 31%
The second-best FCS team right now (per Movelor, our model’s power rating system), and by a wide margin. They didn’t get a great draw, but it’s a fine one, more highlighted by the intensity of a potential Cat–Griz rematch in the semifinals than by any especially tough early-round game.
Tarleton State: 7%
Tarleton drew NDSU’s side of the bracket, which is a little bit of bad luck. Tarleton also may have drawn a very good North Dakota team in their first game. If North Dakota beats Tennessee Tech, that’s a big bit of bad luck for the Texans.
Montana: 4%
The Griz can clearly hang with Montana State. They just did. We think they at least can beat South Dakota State in Missoula, though South Dakota State did right the ship on Saturday and I haven’t seen Chase Mason ruled out for the season. Could the Griz hang with North Dakota State? We don’t know about that.
Mercer: 1.2%
South Dakota State: 1.0%
Stephen F. Austin: 1.0%
Lehigh: 1.0%
Our next pack rounds out the top seven seeds, with South Dakota State also in there. It’s been a rebuilding season for the Jacks, but the losing skid was worse than anyone expected.
North Dakota: 0.7%
Abilene Christian: 0.7%
UC Davis: 0.5%
UC Davis enjoys the benefit of a bye and the torment of drawing North Dakota State at the Fargodome in the quarterfinals if they get there.
Youngstown State: 0.20%
South Dakota: 0.20%
Rhode Island: 0.19%
It looked like a major letdown season for South Dakota, but the Coyotes came on strong down the stretch. They also got a good first round draw, hosting non-scholarship Drake.
Villanova: 0.14%
Harvard: 0.09%
Southeastern Louisiana: 0.07%
Illinois State: 0.06%
Tennessee Tech: 0.05%
Yale: 0.05%
New Hampshire: 0.04%
Not a lot of hope for this pack, but that doesn’t mean a deep run isn’t possible. Villanova, for example, will be expected to be competitive against Lehigh and potentially Tarleton State. It’s just NDSU and Montana State that look insurmountable.
Lamar: 0.00%
Drake: 0.00%
Central Connecticut State: 0.00%
We ran 10,000 simulations. None of these teams won a championship. It’s not impossible, but it’s close to that.
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