North Dakota State’s out. Defensive tackle Jake Anderson and the Illinois State Redbirds took them down in the Fargodome. I’m not sure the last time we saw an upset this big in the FCS Playoffs, and I’m hesitant to take a guess. But that was a surprise. The biggest of the weekend, and we’re not saying that lightly.
Where does that leave the FCS playoff mix? Here’s what our model’s got:
1. Montana State: 42%
The Bobcats haven’t looked great in two straight games, but they held off feisty Yale, and they’re now the best team left standing. An added degree of intrigue here: If they win this weekend, they’ll probably get a known quantity in Montana in the semifinals.
2. Tarleton State: 30%
If Montana State isn’t the best team left in this, it’s Tarleton. Strong showing by the Texans in their opener, and with NDSU out, they’ll now host the semi’s if they get past Villanova.
3. Montana: 13%
The Griz looked great against South Dakota State, extinguishing the potential Chase Mason comeback tour before it could really get rolling. Are they as good as Montana State? No. But we see every year how emotional those two teams get against one another. That gives them a chance. Get past South Dakota, and we’ll have a great matchup in Cat–Griz II.
4. UC Davis: 5%
The Aggies thought they’d be going to Fargo. Instead they welcome Illinois State to California. Illinois State is obviously dangerous—our model has this a 4.2-point spread—but that’s a relatively good draw.
5. Stephen F. Austin: 3%
Stephen F. Austin’s true probability is more uncertain than it is for the rest of these guys. There aren’t a ton of data points between the Southland and the more prominent FCS conferences.
6. Villanova: 3%
Villanova’s playing good football. That probably won’t be enough in Stephenville.
7. Illinois State: 2%
I mean, we’re not going to write them off.
8. South Dakota: 2%
I should go back to when these guys were struggling against UNI and see what probability our model had that they’d be the last Dakota standing.
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