There are two weeks remaining before college football’s conference championship games, which is quite a bit of time in a sport with a season as short as college football’s. In the FCS, though, this weekend is—for almost every league—the last one before the postseason begins. What’s more, almost every league doesn’t have a conference championship game. So, the tiebreakers aren’t just deciding who gets a chance at the conference title. They’re deciding the whole thing, often with a playoff automatic bid at stake. (A lot of leagues name co-champions, so if we say that a team “wins” its league when they’d actually only win a share of the title, we mean that it wins the league’s automatic bid to the FCS Playoffs.)
Here’s what we have, through games of Sunday, November 12th. We’ll lay out the high-level situation first, and then we’ll go through the details of any scenarios below. Full probabilities can be found within our model, which will be updated after the FCS Selection Show to include national championship probabilities in its forecast.
- Big Sky: The winner of the Cat-Griz Game wins the Big Sky.
- Big South-OVC: Gardner-Webb wins the league with a win this weekend. If Gardner-Webb loses, UT Martin wins the league.
- CAA: Nobody controls their fate, with all of Albany, Delaware, Richmond, and Villanova still alive. Specific scenarios are outlined below.
- Ivy League: The league awards shared titles, with no playoff automatic bid at stake. Harvard wins the title outright by beating Yale. Yale wins a share by beating Harvard. Dartmouth wins a share by beating Brown and seeing Yale beat Harvard.
- MEAC: Howard clinches with a win, NC Central clinches with a win and a Howard loss, and Morgan State clinches with a win and an NC Central loss.
- MVFC: South Dakota State has clinched.
- NEC: The winner of Duquesne at Merrimack wins the NEC.
- Patriot League: Lafayette wins with a win. With a Lafayette loss, Holy Cross can win with a win themselves. If both Lafayette and Holy Cross lose, it’s probably only Colgate who can steal it (with a win themselves), but it’s possible we’re misunderstanding the Patriot League tiebreaker procedure and that Holy Cross or Georgetown has a chance.
- Pioneer League: Drake wins with a win or a Davidson loss. Davidson wins with a win and a Drake loss.
- SWAC: Florida A&M has already clinched the East. Prairie View A&M clinches the West with a win, but if PVAM loses, the door opens to either Alcorn State or Grambling, with Alcorn controlling its fate and Grambling needing Alcorn to lose.
- SoCon: Furman has clinched.
- Southland: Nicholls has clinched.
- UAC: The winner of Central Arkansas at Austin Peay wins the UAC.
Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky is in a simple spot. Montana State and Montana are both 6–1 in conference play, alone together in first place in the league. Those two play one another this weekend in Missoula. The winner wins the Big Sky. The loser doesn’t.
Big South-OVC Football Association
UT Martin has already finished its conference season, and the Skyhawks went 5–1 in league play. Their only loss came to Gardner-Webb. It’s Gardner-Webb, though, who’s in second place, and the Runnin’ Bulldogs haven’t finished their conference season just yet. Gardner-Webb, 4–1 in the Big South-OVC, still gets to play Charleston Southern at home. If Gardner-Webb wins that game, they’ll finish 5–1, tied with UT Martin, and per these tiebreaker rules Gardner-Webb will win the tiebreaker and win the league.
Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)
There’s a four-way tie right now for first in the CAA, with Albany, Delaware, Villanova, and Richmond all 6–1 in conference play. Because Delaware and Villanova play one another, we’re guaranteed at least one 7–1 CAA team, meaning we don’t need to worry about 5–2 Elon. We do, though, have four different possible two-way ties and two different possible three-way ties. The CAA has helpfully shared what happens in all these tiebreaker scenarios themselves. Here’s the rundown, with Albany hosting Monmouth, Richmond visiting William & Mary, and Delaware hosting the matchup with Villanova:
- Villanova vs. Albany: Albany beat Villanova head-to-head, so Albany would win.
- Delaware vs. Albany: These teams didn’t play each other, but among common opponents, Delaware beat New Hampshire while Albany lost to New Hampshire. There is no other common opponent with a different result between the two schools, so Delaware would win this tiebreaker.
- Villanova vs. Richmond: There’s no head-to-head tiebreaker available here, and the teams each beat all their common opponents. This leaves us with a point differential tiebreaker, but one in which point differential is capped at 21 points for each given game. In that measurement, Villanova is +96 and Richmond is +58, so even if Richmond wins by more than 21 points and Villanova wins by only one, Villanova will win the tiebreaker.
- Delaware vs. Richmond: There’s no head-to-head tiebreaker available here, but there’s a different result against a common opponent, with Richmond having beaten Elon and Elon having beaten Delaware. Richmond would win this tiebreaker.
- Albany vs. Delaware vs. Richmond: This would, like Villanova vs. Richmond, come back to the capped version of point differential. Entering Saturday, Delaware is +97, Albany is +92, and Richmond is +58, so Richmond wouldn’t win this tiebreaker and Albany would need to win by six more points than Delaware’s winning margin in order to take the lead. If Delaware and Albany finish tied in point differential, the CAA says that “the next tiebreaker would be the best combined conference ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.” We aren’t positive what exactly that means, but chances are low that it gets that far.
- Albany vs. Villanova vs. Richmond: It’s capped point differential again. Richmond would be toast, and Albany would need to win by four more points than Villanova to force another tiebreaker and five more points to win the initial tiebreaker outright.
Summarized:
- Villanova vs. Albany: Albany
- Delaware vs. Albany: Delaware
- Villanova vs. Richmond: Villanova
- Delaware vs. Richmond: Richmond
- Albany vs. Delaware vs. Richmond: Albany or Delaware, with Delaware holding a 5-point lead over Albany in capped point differential entering Saturday.
- Albany vs. Villanova vs. Richmond: Albany or Villanova, with Villanova holding a 4-point lead over Albany in capped point differential entering Saturday.
Nobody fully controls their fate.
Ivy League
The Ivy League awards shared titles, with no playoff automatic bid at stake. Entering Saturday, Harvard is 5–1 in the league while Yale and Dartmouth are both 4–2. Harvard will play Yale, at Yale, while Dartmouth plays Brown, at Brown. Scenarios:
- If Harvard beats Yale, Harvard wins the Ivy League outright.
- If Yale beats Harvard, Yale and Harvard each win a share of the Ivy League title.
- If Yale beats Harvard and Dartmouth beats Brown, Dartmouth also wins a share of the Ivy League title.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)
The MEAC title comes with a Celebration Bowl bid, and there are three teams in that mix: Howard, North Carolina Central, and Morgan State are all 3–1 in league play. Howard hosts Morgan State on Saturday while NC Central hosts Delaware State. Per the MEAC, this is a straight head-to-head tiebreaker league (as all, to our knowledge, are). Howard holds the tiebreaker over NC Central, NC Central holds the tiebreaker over Morgan State, and Howard can’t end up tied with Morgan State because one will beat the other on Saturday. So:
- Howard clinches the MEAC with a win.
- NC Central clinches the MEAC with a win and a Howard loss.
- Morgan State clinches the MEAC with a win and an NC Central loss.
NC Central was ranked in the top ten of the FCS poll of record prior to losing to Howard on Saturday, so there’s a chance they could get an at-large bid to the playoff in the event they don’t reach the Celebration Bowl.
Missouri Valley Football Conference
South Dakota State has already clinched the league title, alone in first place and holding the head-to-head advantage over South Dakota, the only team within a game of them in the MVFC standings.
Northeast Conference
Duquesne leads the NEC at 5–1, with Merrimack and LIU tied for second at 4–2. Head-to-head is used and applicable here, and both Duquesne and Merrimack have beaten LIU. So, LIU is eliminated, and the Merrimack vs. Duquesne winner (the game is at Merrimack on Saturday) wins the NEC.
Patriot League
Lafayette and Holy Cross are tied atop the Patriot League at 4–1. Colgate and Georgetown are tied for third at 3–2. Lafayette holds the head-to-head advantage over Holy Cross and Georgetown. Holy Cross holds the head-to-head advantage over Colgate. Colgate holds the head-to-head advantage over Lafayette and Georgetown. Holy Cross and Georgetown play one another this weekend in Worcester, while Lafayette visits Lehigh and Colgate hosts Fordham.
Here are the high-level scenarios:
- Lafayette controls its fate. If Lafayette wins, it wins the Patriot League regardless of what Holy Cross does.
- If Lafayette loses and Holy Cross wins, Holy Cross wins the Patriot League. If Lafayette loses and Holy Cross also loses, then the tiebreaker depends on whether Colgate wins.
Possible relevant ties:
- Lafayette vs. Holy Cross: Lafayette wins.
- Lafayette vs. Holy Cross vs. Georgetown: Lafayette wins.
- Lafayette vs. Holy Cross vs. Georgetown vs. Colgate: It’s a little unclear, but with Lafayette and Colgate each 2–1 within this round robin, our best guess is that the Patriot League would eliminate the other two teams and name Colgate its champion. The other possibility is that the league would call the tie still a tie and move on to the next step in its tiebreaker procedure, the comparison of results against individual teams in the league, going from best to worst. If it gets to that, Lafayette and Colgate lost to Lehigh and Bucknell, respectively, in this scenario. We would guess that would also favor Colgate, with Lehigh finishing above Bucknell. We believe Colgate wins the hypothetical four-way tie, one way or another.
Pioneer League
Drake enters the weekend 7–0 and plays Butler, on the road.
Davidson enters the weekend 6–1 and plays Dayton, at home.
St. Thomas enters the weekend 6–1 but is transitioning up from Division III and isn’t yet eligible for the postseason.
Davidson and Drake didn’t play head-to-head, so if Davidson wins and Drake loses and there ends up being a tie, the tiebreaker will be each team’s record against common opponents. In this scenario, Drake lost to Butler—whom Davidson beat—but Davidson lost to Morehead State, whom Drake beat. So, it’s on to the next step.
The next step goes down the standings in descending order, comparing results against common opponents. Butler has clinched a higher finish in the league than Morehead State, so in this scenario, Davidson wins the tiebreaker.
In short:
- Drake wins with a win or a Davidson loss.
- Davidson wins with a win and a Drake loss.
SWAC
The SWAC has two divisions, and the division champions play one another to determine who goes to the Celebration Bowl. Florida A&M has already clinched the East, but the West is messier. Let’s break it down.
- Prairie View A&M: 5–2
- Alcorn State: 5–2
- Grambling State: 4–3
- Southern: 4–3
Head-to-head results:
- PVAM has beaten Alcorn, lost to Grambling, and beaten Southern.
- Alcorn has beaten Grambling and beaten Southern.
- Grambling and Southern play one another this weekend.
Prairie View A&M controls its fate, then, heading into a home game against Alabama State. Win, and the Panthers are into the SWAC Championship. Lose, and Alcorn State is in with a win over Jackson State on the road. If both lose, here are how the two possible three-way tiebreakers work out:
- PVAM vs. Alcorn vs. Grambling: With all three 1–1 against one another, we’d move on to each team’s division record. PVAM is 4–1 against the rest of the West. Alcorn is 3–2. Grambling would be 4–1, and when the tiebreaker was then reduced to PVAM vs. Grambling, Grambling would win on the head-to-head.
- PVAM vs. Alcorn vs. Southern: PVAM would win the tiebreaker by having beaten the other.
So, Southern is eliminated, PVAM has the edge, and PVAM can survive a loss if Alcorn and Grambling both also lose.
Southern Conference
Furman has clinched the SoCon, leading by a game and a half with only one game to play.
Southland Conference
Nicholls has clinched the Southland, leading Incarnate Word by a game and holding the head-to-head advantage.
United Athletic Conference (this is the ASUN/WAC mashup)
Austin Peay and Central Arkansas lead this league, with Peay at 5–0 and Central Arkansas 4–1. They play this weekend, at Peay, so the winner will win the UAC’s automatic bid, with the conference reportedly using the head-to-head tiebreaker to decide a two-way tie.
