Sorry, sorry, I know, this is incredibly late.
Before we get going, let’s head off the obvious question: No, our model does not consider the FCS committee’s rankings reveal from Wednesday, nor will it consider the one in early November. It’s not that those don’t say anything—it’s that the value of what they say is too small for us to have spent the time yet measuring it and building it into our model. It’s a lot different from the FBS, where you get the rankings every week. Those rankings become sticky the same way the AP Poll is sticky. These rankings are easier to change based on more marginal happenings.
Now. Our model’s FCS Bracketology heading into Week 8:
Moving In: Dartmouth, Lamar, Rhode Island, Duquesne*
Automatic bid shift: Duquesne is now the NEC favorite ahead of CCSU. They passed them in Movelor, and by enough. Those two play in Pittsburgh in the second-to-last week of the FCS season.
In at-large land, Dartmouth beat Yale, Lamar survived East Texas A&M (you might have seen it on the SVP SportsCenter’s Bad Beats), and Rhode Island beat New Hampshire. Those last two are more about others moving out than the teams themselves moving up and in.
Moving Out: Yale, Elon, Alabama State, Central Connecticut State*
Alabama State didn’t beat Jackson State, and while that increases the chances they make the FCS playoffs (because they probably won’t win the SWAC East, opening up postseason dates), it decreases their average ranking. Bracketology quirk. No perfect way to do this.
Elon lost a home game against Villanova. Not damning, but enough to move them out of the field.
Yale, as mentioned, lost to Dartmouth.
Moving Up: Villanova, Monmouth, Abilene Christian
That road win for Villanova was enough to put them in home game position. Joining them are Monmouth—the new CAA favorite after Elon’s loss—and Abilene Christian, who won decisively at West Georgia.
Moving Down: Austin Peay, Southern Illinois, Northern Arizona
Austin Peay took a surprising two-touchdown loss at Eastern Kentucky. SIU lost badly to North Dakota State, which was expected but brings down their “average” ranking even if it doesn’t affect their median (had they beaten NDSU in Fargo, the FCS world would have shaken). NAU lost worse at UC Davis than was expected.
Probabilities, Average Final Rankings
How they stack up:
We’re comfortable calling the first four teams on this list “locks.” We won’t include Lehigh in that group because every game left on their schedule (besides maybe Lafayette) is a land mine. We won’t include Montana because they’re behind Lehigh.
At the other end, 48 FCS teams’ playoff probabilities round to at least 1-in-20, and 93 teams make the playoff in at least one of our model’s latest 10,000 simulations. So much season left to go.
It still looks likeliest that Tarleton gets home-field advantage all the way to Frisco. The intuition there that the Dakota Marker loser won’t be seeded above Tarleton is probably correct. As far as who controls their fate for byes: We think those first nine teams do, plus Stephen F. Austin, Mercer, Villanova, Monmouth, and probably a few others. Presbyterian’s a unique case because the Pioneer League’s ceiling is lower than everyone else’s. Abilene Christian is where the list becomes a stretch unless a team has only lost once or twice.
Movelor’s (FCS) Top 25
From NDSU on down:
Montana State’s back ahead of South Dakota State despite the head-to-head loss. The Bobcats have played better since.
North Dakota’s closed the gap on Tarleton, on whom Movelor seems to have finally found level. Tough trip to Carbondale coming up tomorrow for the Fighting Hawks. Then, NDSU and SDSU within a three-week stretch to end the regular season. Very tough schedule. Three of the six best teams, Kansas State, and two more in the current top 20.
Idaho wasn’t in last week’s bracket, but Northern Colorado’s breakout continued at a bad time for the Vandals. Two FBS losses and Montana were one thing, but a home loss to Northern Colorado doesn’t leave much margin for error, and more importantly indicates that these guys aren’t on the FCS’s third level. (First level = NDSU, second level = Montana State and South Dakota State and maybe Tarleton if you want to be inclusive.)
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We will try to update our bracketology earlier than Friday next week. We’ll also try to get some conditional probabilities up for tomorrow’s games before tomorrow’s sun gets too high in the sky. Unfortunately, we can’t make any promises right now about just about anything. Sorry, guys.
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