North Dakota almost pulled it off. Mercer and Western Carolina played a football game for the ages. And South Dakota State keeps losing.
Here’s what our model sees after the action of Week 11:
Moving In: Lamar, Illinois State
Lamar held on, stopping a Southeastern Louisiana two-point conversion in the fourth quarter to win by two. They’re up to 8–2 and back into our bracket as the 16-seed.
Illinois State handled business on the road, beating Indiana State by enough to slide up and in as Western Carolina and Southern Illinois each picked up a loss.
Moving Out: Southeastern Louisiana, Western Carolina
Southeastern Louisiana is out, at least for now. Western Carolina’s got a tougher climb to get back into the field. They were pretty reliant on the automatic bid.
Moving Up: Mercer, Rhode Island
On the other end of that Mercer–WCU game (sparknotes: 96 points, 1,167 combined yards), Mercer won the SoCon and got itself up into a projected bye. It’s not guaranteed that they’ll stay there—they only average the 9-seed across our model’s simulations—but beat Chattanooga and they’ll have a good shot.
Rhode Island is up into a home game after winning on the road at Elon. This doesn’t affect the bracketology directly, but they’re also now favored to win the CAA after Monmouth went down.
Moving Down: Monmouth, Abilene Christian
New Hampshire isn’t bad, but losing to them by 21 points is going to hurt, especially at home. Three turnovers on four possessions by Monmouth in the second half.
Abilene Christian beat Utah Tech and did so in a perfectly acceptable manner. They just got passed.
Playoff Probabilities, Average Seeds
Of more importance…
Playoff Probabilities, Average Seeds (continued)
We’re getting a little more skeptical of Tarleton State as the 2-seed after last week’s committee reveal. It seems like that’ll probably go to whoever wins the Cat–Griz Game, with Lehigh potentially also ahead of Tarleton. We’re less skeptical of our model’s take on Harvard. If the Crimson finish 10–0 and beat Yale in the finale, we think the committee will respond favorably. Potentially favorably enough for Harvard to jump Tennessee Tech, as our model predicts. We’re not extraordinarily confident, but we do think it’s smart to not take the committee reveals as gospel.
Elsewhere on here, South Dakota State is still pretty safe, but they’re not a lock. That’s three losses in a row, and while they’ll be favored over Illinois State, they probably won’t be favored against North Dakota on the road in the regular season finale. Lose both, and they’ll be on the bubble accompanied by a losing streak narrative. Some of that is the quarterback injury situation. Some of it is the rebuild.
For South Dakota’s part, they’re up into the mix, one of those teams hoping the committee scoffs at the Ivy League’s shorter schedule and keeps Dartmouth and Yale out. The Coyotes looked concerning, then looked outright bad, and are now pulling things together again. Right time of year to do it.
We did contact Alabama State asking if they’ll play in the playoffs if invited or stick with the scheduled Turkey Day Classic, a traditional game of theirs against Tuskegee. We haven’t seen anything yet offering a definitive answer.
How Good Is Everybody Right Now?
Movelor’s FCS Top 25:
How Good Is Everybody Right Now? (continued)
Three things here:
First, North Dakota State and Montana State have separated from the pack, mostly through the back of the top five falling down and meeting the rest of the top teams in the middle.
Second, Montana State has really closed the gap between themselves and the Bison. Something to monitor, especially if they end up across from one another on the bracket as the committee’s indicated they will. It has to help to play the Bison in Frisco instead of Fargo.
Finally, shoutout to Southern Utah. Still hardly any playoff chance, but they’re up to 15th in the country. They went through a lot of early-season heartbreak and didn’t quit. Good for them.
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