FCS Bracketology: South Dakota State, the Ivy League, and More Questions

Four quick things.

First of all: Really sorry about taking three days to get this out at the time when FCS fans want bracketology the most. I do this blog part-time now, and I’m struggling to fit everything we’re trying to do into the time I have.

Second: I’ll do my best to have at least something up Saturday night or Sunday morning ahead of the FCS Selection Show.

Third: Here are the tiebreaker scenarios (as I understand them) for every FCS automatic bid. Scroll down to get to the FCS part.

Fourth: This bracketology is made purely by a computer model. There’s subjectivity in how the model is built, but at this point, this is the model’s opinion and not my own. I’ll add my own opinions where I have some—namely on the Ivy League, South Dakota State, and Montana State, the “three big questions” we mentioned in the headline.

Now. The bracket.

Moving In: South Dakota, Southeastern Louisiana

South Dakota is off this week, so their regular season is over. With the five-overtime win over SIU, the Coyotes finished 8–4, their only losses to an FBS school and three likely playoff teams. Our model says there’s a 100% chance they make it. What a rebound. In August and September, they…

• lost by 48,
• lost to a team in the Southland,
• needed overtime to beat Northern Colorado,
• lost by 38,
• and beat Drake.

Now, they’re in the playoffs, and our model thinks they could even get a first round home game.

Southeastern Louisiana still has work to do, but by beating Incarnate Word on the road, they at least got to the right side of the bubble.

Moving Out: Youngstown State, Northern Arizona

Youngstown State is probably going to get in. Their average finish isn’t as good as some other bubble teams’, but beating UNI wouldn’t mean much and losing to UNI would mean a lot, which skews that average finish towards the downside. (If in 80% of simulations a team is ranked 20^th, but in 20% they’re ranked 30^th, they’ll show up at 22^nd in our sim’s even thought the first scenario is far more likely.)

Northern Arizona is in the same boat as they visit Weber State this weekend. They’re probably fine, but they’re close to the cut line and they have a lot of downside, while other teams—we’ll get to South Dakota State in a moment—have a lot of upside.

Moving Up: Illinois State, Dartmouth

Illinois State went up 28–0 on South Dakota State in the first quarter. The game was in Brookings. The Redbirds are into a home game in our projection, and thanks to geography, they might even draw non-scholarship Drake in the first round.

Dartmouth wasn’t dominant against Cornell, but they got some help elsewhere and are up into a home game too. Since we mentioned Dartmouth…

We’ve mentioned this a decent number of times, but our model assumes the FCS committee will apply fairly normal treatment to the Ivy League, dinging those teams similarly to how they ding schools in the SoCon, CAA, etc. for total losses and the severity of those losses. The problem is that the Ivy League plays a shorter nonconference schedule than those leagues, which makes it easier to avoid losses. So, it’s possible Dartmouth and Yale are in worse shape than they appear in this bracketology. Ditto Harvard, who should still safely get in and seems likely to get a bye with a win this weekend but might not actually be the whole darn 5-seed.

That’s the first question: How will the committee treat the Ivy League?

Moving Down: North Dakota, South Dakota State, Lamar

Dropping out of home games were North Dakota (beat Murray State), Lamar (lost to Stephen F. Austin), and South Dakota State (we talked about what happened to them). With North Dakota and South Dakota State playing one another, it’s fair to guess that at least UND will move into a bye if they win.

As for South Dakota State…that’s the second question. It’s a two-parter: How will the committee view the Jacks in light of this skid, and how much does Chase Mason’s status impact that? I don’t know whether the committee is explicitly told to consider or not consider injuries. I do know that everybody knows Chase Mason’s been hurt, and that not many people seem to know whether he could play in the playoffs’ first round. If he plays this weekend, it could help the Jacks even if they lose. At least subliminally.

Lamar could still get a home game. Our model only has 14 teams with an average finish in the top 16. More on that:

Playoff Probabilities, Average Selection Rankings

This is what really counts.

Playoff Probabilities, Average Selection Rankings (continued)

Our full probabilities show 35 teams with a 1-in-100 playoff shot. Those average rankings only show 14 in the top 16, as we mentioned. We basically have seven types of teams:

14 Locks

North Dakota State, Tarleton State, Lehigh, Montana, Harvard, Montana State, Tennessee Tech, Mercer, Stephen F. Austin, Villanova, Rhode Island, UC Davis, and Illinois State are all either in already (as automatic bids) or almost definitely getting there (as automatic or at-large bids). Any of the 14 could believably get a bye. It’s possible one of the teams on the fringe could miss a home game. But most likely, these 14 are in and they’re playing at home.

One thing to note—the third question: Will the committee seed a two-loss Montana State ahead of everyone besides NDSU?

Our model doesn’t think so, but we made a mistake when we didn’t incorporate the committee’s in-season seeding reveals into our model’s logic. Those aren’t all that valuable for basketball, so we didn’t expect them to be valuable with the FCS. They are. They tell us that yes, the committee will be doing that. If Montana State beats Montana, expect the Bobcats to be the 2-seed.

1 Drake

Drake is almost 100% likely to win the Pioneer League. No home game, but they should be in.

1 South Dakota

South Dakota is almost definitely in, but they’re on the home game bubble.

2 Abilene Christian and Yale

Abilene Christian and Yale are both at-large contenders and automatic bid contenders. Win, and they’re in as their conference’s automatic bid. Lose, and there’s another at-large spot available but also another team vying for it.

13 At-Large Contenders

There’s a huge range here of how likely it actually is, but the fourteen teams who could still make it as an at-large are:

• Lamar
• Southeastern Louisiana
• Dartmouth
• Northern Arizona
• North Dakota
• Youngstown State
• South Dakota State
• Sacramento State
• Alabama State
• Austin Peay
• Gardner–Webb
• New Hampshire
• Southern Utah

The last five teams on this list are really unlikely. Alabama State’s even got a game scheduled for Thanksgiving, so they might turn the FCS committee down if invited (still haven’t heard confirmation on that). If you want to think of the first eight on this list plus Abilene Christian and Yale as the ten teams vying for up to seven spots, you can do that. That’s kind of what I’m doing. Between the first eight on this list, Abilene Christian, and Yale, at least three teams are going to miss the field. Sacramento State would be an easy omission. So would any of these teams if they lose as a favorite. This will probably resolve itself to an extent, but we do seem to be aimed at some heartbreak. We’ll know at least a little more on Friday after Southeastern Louisiana plays.

2 NEC Contenders

Either Central Connecticut State or Duquesne will take the NEC’s automatic bid and enter as the effective 24-seed.

2 Potential Bid Thieves

Lafayette and UT Martin could make life tough for those teams chasing at-large bids. Each is in a win–and–in scenario, chasing an automatic bid against an at-large lock (Lehigh for Lafayette in the Patriot League, Tennessee Tech for UT Martin in the OVC–Big South Conglomerate). If either or both pulls off their upset, the pool of available at-large bids shrinks.

How Good Is Everybody?

How Good Is Everybody? (continued)

It’s a little wild how much this has changed. South Dakota State’s in danger of falling out of the top ten. Montana and Mercer have broken up the rest of what was recently a distinct top five. Montana State has almost entirely closed the gap with North Dakota State.

That last part is the biggest deal here, and it’s why we called it perfectly understandable for Montana State to hypothetically get the 2-seed even with a home loss to a potential non-playoff team. Over the last fourteen years, North Dakota State has won ten national championships. Two of the other four went to South Dakota State. One went to James Madison, who’s now favored to make the 12-team playoff at the FBS level. The last went to Sam Houston in a weird spring season where Trey Lance didn’t play.

Montana State’s knocked on the door plenty. Even last year, they managed to finish within one possession of NDSU in Frisco. But the Cats graduated more key players than just about anyone, and with NDSU looking ascendant again, there was no reason to expect this level of excellence from Montana State so soon. Maybe it’s a mirage—it’s really been only three weeks that Montana State’s dominated while North Dakota State’s stagnated—but for the moment, we’re pointed towards a championship for the ages. It’s a good time for those of us who enjoy FCS football.

**