When we built FCS Bracketology back into our model, we were curious if we should add in a conference-level adjustment. Meaning: Is an FCS team’s conference an important piece of data on their résumé? It makes some sense. We see it at the FBS level. When teams play 75% of their games against conference competition, it’s easy for the résumés of teams in weaker conferences to become inflated, even when strength of schedule metrics are applied. A 9–3 team in the Pioneer League is different from a 9–3 team in the SEC.
Ultimately, we decided against any conference level adjustments. We’re mostly fine with this. We’re skeptical of our model’s treatment of Presbyterian, but the Blue Hose did beat Mercer, Mercer’s the SoCon favorite, and the SoCon commands some historic respect. Win as many games as Presbyterian’s projected to win, and with a little quality in there? Sure, give them a home game. We’re curious, though, how the Ivy League will be treated. With this the first year Ivy League teams have competed in the playoff, there’s no precedent for how the committee will handle that league. Because in addition to that strength-of-schedule question above, which is a question for every conference, the Ivy League introduces a second question: How can résumés be compared head-to-head when one league’s teams play fewer overall games? The Ivy League’s schools start football three weeks later than everybody else. They play two fewer regular season games. Not only does this make it harder to gauge the Ivy League’s strength, but it makes a two-loss record a different story.
So, take the three-bid Ivy League below with a grain of salt. Maybe it’s on its way. Maybe it’s a mirage. We won’t find out anytime soon.
As always, probabilities can be found here.
Our model’s latest FCS Bracketology:
One note, before the Moving In/Moving Out: Part of why Tarleton outranks North Dakota State right now is that North Dakota State has a tougher schedule remaining. If both schools win out, which currently isn’t a wild assumption, we’re guessing our model will put NDSU back in front. Tarleton does have an FBS win, though!
Moving In: Dartmouth, Monmouth
Dartmouth took out New Hampshire in its opener, coming back from some first-half deficits to get to a noisy 1–0. The Big Green find themselves owning the last home game in today’s update.
Monmouth also won a tossup, but in the Hawks’ case they did it decisively, throwing all over Villanova. That improves future projections for the victors.
Moving Out: Elon, New Hampshire
The loss in Hanover dropped UNH to 2–2, which is enough to at least temporarily push them out of the field. Elon lost as a narrow Movelor underdog at East Tennessee State. No slot right now for ETSU, but their SoCon rivals can breathe a sigh of relief. Everyone over there needs SoCon nonconference wins.
Moving Up: Lehigh, Southern Illinois, Abilene Christian
Lehigh’s onto the bye line after taking care of business at Bucknell. SIU and Abilene Christian, meanwhile, move into seeded positions and accompanying home games. SIU smoked Southeast Missouri State while ACU grabbed a big win over Austin Peay. Is SIU the third-best MVFC team? Is ACU the second-best in the UAC? Those are prized positions. The jury’s out on SIU vs. UND, but ACU’s main competition for that UAC runner-up tag was supposed to be APSU.
Moving Down: Yale, Austin Peay, Idaho
Yale’s out of a bye despite whooping up on Holy Cross. Harvard and Dartmouth both impressed, which will make a zero or one-loss Bulldog season a lot tougher. Austin Peay drops out of a home game after the loss in Abilene. Idaho drops out of a home game after losing to San Jose State, one of those games we talked about last week where they were expected to lose but the upside was so high that it was pulling them upwards in our projections.
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