Tarleton got tested, Idaho State scared Montana, and we got (some) conference tiebreakers into our model. Here’s where our model now sees the FCS bracket ending up:
Moving In: Elon, Villanova, Southeastern Louisiana, Abilene Christian, Alabama State
Elon handled Towson in Baltimore, taking over the role of CAA favorite.
Villanova smoked New Hampshire in Durham, moving to 3–2 overall and setting up a big one between themselves and the Phoenix this Saturday.
Southeastern Louisiana shut out McNeese in Lake Charles, climbing into at-large territory and making a claim as a Southland contender.
Abilene Christian handled North Alabama at home, staying unbeaten in UAC play.
Alabama State put up 52 on Bethune-Cookman, making this weekend’s matchup with Jackson State a de facto SWAC East championship, with the winner most likely bound for the SWAC Championship and the loser a playoff contender.
Moving Out: Lamar, Dartmouth, Idaho, Rhode Island, Incarnate Word
Lamar beat Nicholls but got bumped as others in the Southland impressed. One of those impressing was Stephen F. Austin, who effectively eliminated Incarnate Word from Southland title contention and also knocked the Cardinals out of our bracket.
Rhode Island entered the week the CAA favorite, but Friday night’s loss at Brown put an end to that and also pushed them back from an at-large position.
Dartmouth got upset at Penn, following up two wins against likely playoff teams with a step down into the Ivy League pack.
Idaho was idle, but there was more movement upwards this week than down.
Moving Up: Stephen F. Austin, Austin Peay, North Dakota
We mentioned SFA above—with their win at UIW, the Lumberjacks are into a seeded position.
Back in the UAC, Austin Peay handed West Georgia its first loss of the season, lessening the chances of an NCAA reclassification rules fight (WGU is moving from D-II to D-I, so they’re still postseason-ineligible even if they’re good, which they are) while getting the Governors a projected seed and home game, at least for now.
In the MVFC, North Dakota throttled Northern Iowa in the UNI-Dome. The Fighting Hawks are only 3–2, and they have to play both NDSU and SDSU. They might not be able to afford a slip-up. They’re also the fifth-best football team in the FCS, at least according to our model’s power rating system, Movelor.
Moving Down: Yale
The Bulldogs are out of a home game after getting run out of Bethlehem, with Lehigh playing the role of King Herod if we want to make that a Biblical callback.
Playoff Probabilities, Average Rankings
To be clear: If the FCS committee ranked everybody, these rankings are how our model thinks they’d line them up.
Playoff Probabilities and Average Rankings, Continued
We specified that last part because Jackson State’s on those rankings, but because of the SWAC Championship and Celebration Bowl they aren’t an option for our bracketology.
On the probabilities side, we’re at three locks, but that changes if you add a decimal place and it isn’t all that new. Realistically, none of those first five teams are going to miss the playoff, and it sure looks safe for Lehigh and Tennessee Tech as well.
Harvard’s a different story because our model is probably too confident on how the committee will treat the Ivy League. Harvard looks like a good football team but it’s earlier for them than it is for everybody else.
Both the Big Sky and MVFC are averaging four playoff teams, in addition to putting four in this current bracket. We say that to say: Don’t expect too much cannibalization from those two.
Central Connecticut State is the only team relying on the automatic bid to make our field. All the other conference favorites are also among the top 23 when ordered by average finish.
How Good Is Everybody?
Both Tarleton State and West Georgia failed to cover Movelor’s spread for the first time this year, which indicates Movelor’s found its level on both of them. The Texans are probably the fourth-best team in the FCS. West Georgia’s probably on the edge of the top 25.
Harvard has covered Movelor’s spread in all three of its games, so they’re one to keep an eye on when it comes to who might make a deep playoff run. This is not baked into the model, but there’s a better chance Movelor is missing on Harvard than there is that it’s missing on Montana, Tennessee Tech, or SIU.
Lehigh’s got the most noteworthy gap between projected seed (average ranking of 7th, which is 4th-best right now) and Movelor rank (16th). We saw Holy Cross get the 8-seed in 2022, though, and Movelor currently has the Mountain Hawks favored by at least 11.0 points in all six of their remaining games.
Presbyterian is another with a big gap, and since it’s been eight years since the Pioneer League champion won a playoff game, that’s one where I’m skeptical of our model. At the same time, though, Presbyterian beat the SoCon favorite? And the narrative tends to really respect the SoCon? We’ll see what the committee says, provided Presbyterian even takes care of business in the first place.
Where is Illinois State, a top-10 team according to the FCS poll of record? Seventh in Movelor’s MVFC rankings, a 1-in-4 bet to make the playoffs, and a fairly confusing entry in that poll. They’re 2–3 against Movelor’s spread and down 2.3 points from where they started the year. That’s not a team where Movelor’s missing something. That’s just not a top-10 team.
Odds and Ends
As we mentioned above, we’ve got two-team and three-team tiebreakers into our model now, or at least most of them—those which can be settled through direct head-to-head. This doesn’t really affect this week’s bracketology, since all the automatic bids besides CCSU are also at-large teams, but it’s important for our probabilities.
Speaking of those probabilities, no graphic for this one but here are the national championship odds:
- North Dakota State: 47%
- South Dakota State: 18%
- Montana State: 12%
- Tarleton State: 10%
- The Field: 12%
We would not take the field.
We would take North Dakota State.
And as one last note, on that subject: A big thing to watch is the race for the 3-seed. Can Tarleton and South Dakota State hold on? Or will Montana State run them down? If the Bobcats knock Tarleton specifically back to the Fargo side of the bracket, the field might get another member.
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