Tarleton State lost this weekend and will probably no longer win their conference. They didn’t move an inch in our model’s FCS Bracketology.
The FBS approach to the College Football Playoff rankings is understandable. Theirs is an entertainment business, and there’s a decent argument which goes, “It’s good to keep seeing where you stand in the committee’s eyes.” The problem is that the CFP committee sometimes feels beholden to do something even when there’s nothing to be done. If Tarleton had beaten Abilene Christian and then taken care of business, they’d have finished 12–0 with a win over Army, probably the second-best résumé in the FCS. Now that Tarleton’s lost to ACU, if they take care of business they’ll finish 11–1 with a win over Army. That will probably be the second-best résumé in the FCS. Using the CFP approach, Tarleton’s loss would matter extra because of when it happened. Using the FCS approach, it should matter just as much as every other regular season game.
What about Montana? The problem for the Griz is that even as the home team, they’re currently an 11-point underdog in the Cat–Griz Game. Win out and yes, Montana should be seeded ahead of Tarleton. But that might have happened even if Tarleton beat ACU.
This week’s bracket:
Moving In: Abilene Christian, Youngstown State, Western Carolina, Central Connecticut State
Abilene Christian has work to do, but they’re the new favorites to win the UAC, and they’ve got one of the best wins in the FCS now having beaten Tarleton, even at home.
Youngstown State doesn’t get a “quality loss” in our model’s eyes for hanging with NDSU (those aren’t as much of a thing in the FCS), but our model feels a lot better about their chances against SIU now.
Western Carolina is not favored over Mercer, per our model, but that road win over Chattanooga was enough to put the Catamounts squarely into the mix. They’re 6–3 and riding a six-game win streak before a home date with the best team in the SoCon. That’s a big enough opportunity that their average final ranking is among the 23 best in the country. (We’ve currently got 23rd as the last team in, with two purely automatic bids in this week’s bracket but Jackson State’s average résumé ranked 22nd by our model.)
Last, CCSU moves back into life as the NEC favorite. They’re underdogs against Duquesne, but there’s enough of a chance Duquesne loses again that CCSU wins the league in more than 50% of simulations.
Moving Out: Lamar, Austin Peay, Presbyterian, Duquesne
Duquesne was idle, but CCSU’s win was enough to flip that league’s favorite spot. For the others…
Losing to Southern Utah is understandable, but Austin Peay lost by 16 points, it was their fourth loss of the season, and they still have to play Tarleton in Stephenville.
Losing to Incarnate Word is probably understandable, but that doesn’t make it a good idea. UIW has its first conference win of the season, Lamar has its first conference loss, and Lamar now has to play two likely playoff teams these next two weeks.
Presbyterian beat Valpo, but the Blue Hose were on the edge as an at-large candidate, and they’re currently a 6-point underdog in that St. Thomas game in a few weeks, with the Tommies playing better than anyone else in the Pioneer League right now.
Moving Up: Monmouth
We kind of buried the main story here.
Indiana State beat South Dakota State.
Monmouth, at least for now, reaps the benefits.
Moving Down: South Dakota State, Dartmouth
We still haven’t talked about the main story.
Indiana State beat South Dakota State!
Shocker in Brookings, where Chase Mason’s still out but it was also a two-score game. South Dakota State’s fine to make the playoffs provided they pull it back together, and they could be poised to make a run depending who has the bye in their corner of the bracket. But right now, the Jacks are not aimed at a bye themselves. They’ve got work to do and they might need some help.
Dartmouth lost to Harvard, but that was more expected. Half the reason the Big Green moved out of a home game is that Abilene Christian moved in.
Playoff Probabilities, Average Final Résumé Rankings
More important (but less fun!) than the bracket:
Playoff Probabilities, Average Final Résumé Rankings (continued)
Those 100%’s are mostly rounded—only North Dakota State, Tarleton, and the Montanas are true 100.00% teams across our model’s 10,000 simulations—but Harvard and Lehigh and Tennessee Tech are all getting in.
One team to address on the other end: Alabama State.
Until yesterday, we were unaware of the history of the Turkey Day Classic, Alabama State’s annual home game held on Thanksgiving Day. Would the Hornets give up that game in order to play in the FCS Playoffs, which start the next day? I don’t know. I don’t think so, and I’m not seeing anyone saying they will, but we’ll try to reach out and get a concrete answer. South Dakota would move onto the graphic if we took Alabama State off. Massive win for the Coyotes over North Dakota on Saturday. That would have been the story of the weekend if two more of the five best teams didn’t go down.
We haven’t said it in a while, so to explain what “end-of-season FCS selection rank” means: It’s where our model ranks each team’s résumé in the average simulation. For what I think is the first time this year, NDSU averages a résumé rank of 1st.
We’re skeptical of Lehigh even at 4, given they’re in the Patriot League, but they did beat three Ivy League teams and we saw Holy Cross get a bye in 2022 and then win a game. (Update: Lehigh was even ahead of Tarleton in the last committee update of the season. So we are no longer skeptical of Lehigh.)
I’m not sure there’s anything else that critical to address about these two lists. UC Davis was another team who took a rough loss. Our model treats Ivy League schools like any other team, even with the shorter schedules. That might prove foolish on our part.
The Best 25 Teams Right Now
Movelor’s current power ratings:
The Best 25 Teams Right Now (continued)
We had a good top five going, but it crumbled this week with Tarleton, SDSU, and UND all going down. Now there’s separation between 1 and 2, more between 2 and 3, and a little between 3 and 4, with Montana State’s two losses creating scenarios where they meet either NDSU or Tarleton earlier in the playoffs than any of them would like.
Meanwhile, Montana’s basically caught back up to North Dakota (after narrowly beating them in Missoula earlier this year), and Mercer, Harvard, and more of a pack isn’t far behind. By the quarterfinals, we should mostly know what to expect. But those first two rounds are going to be a learning experience for us all.
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