North Dakota State laid a whooping on South Dakota State, and the biggest story for the FCS bracket might be…the Pioneer League?
When Presbyterian beat Mercer and Furman to open the 2025 football season, it raised some eyebrows. Those aren’t programs Presbyterian was supposed to beat even when the Blue Hose offered football scholarships. But, knowing how the SoCon has been, we wrote those off as more about the SoCon than about Presbyterian. Slowly over the last two months, we came to realize Presbyterian is a story, especially with Mercer making that win age as well as almost any win in the country. Then, Saturday happened. Presbyterian lost to Dayton. What happens now?
Presbyterian still has a chance at winning the Pioneer League and keeping this simple. Presbyterian also might lose a second game, something which could also make things easy. But our model’s showing an 85% chance someone else wins the Pioneer League, and the Blue Hose are favored by 20 or more in three of their last four games (in the other one, we have them a slight underdog against St. Thomas on the road). Is Presbyterian going to get an at-large bid?
We don’t have any precedent that applies here. Pioneer League teams don’t usually go undefeated in nonconference play. They don’t usually hand one of the FCS’s ten best teams their only loss of the fall. Presbyterian did play two non-Division I schools, which works against them, but our model accounts for that and still thinks the résumé’s competitive if they beat the Tommies. Dayton’s bad, but they’re not much worse than Indiana State. Would an Indiana State loss be that damaging if it was a team’s only defeat?
For now, there are 22 spots in our bracketology for teams worthy of at-large bids. Previously, there were 23. At the moment, Presbyterian’s average finish is good enough to make them our last team in, narrowly edging out Youngstown State. So for now, yes, our model technically projects a two-bid Pioneer League. But in more simulations than not, something takes either Presbyterian, Drake, or both of them out of the field. In more simulations than not, only one Pioneer League team makes this after all.
The bracket:
Moving In: Drake
Drake’s that new Pioneer League favorite, unbeaten in conference play and the best team in the league on paper. They do still have to play both Butler and Dayton away from home, though, and they still have to host St. Thomas in a game where Movelor only currently has them favored by five. Not an easy path.
Moving Out: Southern Illinois
SIU beat UNI on Saturday, but they still slid out of bounds. The worst of their schedule is behind them, and 7–4 should ultimately get them in, but they might need to beat Youngstown State in a couple weeks to feel safe.
Moving Up: North Dakota State, Dartmouth, Southeastern Louisiana
NDSU is back on top, landing the number one seed in 48% of simulations. They still need to beat North Dakota (and the rest of their schedule) to feel comfortable, but they’re back in the driver’s seat.
Dartmouth crushed Columbia on Friday, moving up into a home game in the process. We’ve got a potential Ivy League championship this weekend in Cambridge, with Dartmouth visiting Harvard.
Southeastern Louisiana beat Houston Christian, but they mostly rose thanks to the Presbyterian loss. They’re up into the last home game slot.
Moving Down: Tarleton State, Presbyterian, Rhode Island
Tarleton’s down to #2, and that’s where they’ll land unless NDSU loses and they win out. Simple stuff there.
We already covered Presbyterian.
Rhode Island didn’t really drop. They just got passed. Their average final ranking is the same as it was last week once you take out Jackson State.
Why did SELA pass Rhode Island? It might have to do with the value of SELA’s UTRGV win continuing to appreciate. Those guys are 3–2 now against FCS competition and Movelor has them favored in three of their last four games.
Playoff Probabilities, Average Final Rankings
The full lists:
Playoff Probabilities, Average Final Rankings (continued)
Look at Montana, Lehigh, South Dakota State, Harvard, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State. One of those teams has to be the 3-seed in our bracketology. One has to be the 4-seed. None have an average finish better than 6th. Montana’s projecting to be an 8-point underdog against Montana State, Lehigh hasn’t played anyone better than a bubbly Yale, South Dakota State just lost by 31 points and still has to go to Grand Forks, Harvard skipped the first couple weeks of the season, Tennessee Tech hasn’t beaten an NCAA team with a winning record, and Montana State has two losses.
I mostly bring that up because Montana State dropped from the 5-seed to the 8-seed this week, but their average final ranking didn’t change. Other things to note:
- We’re up to five locks and four more that would be a complete shock to see miss the field.
- Our model still has Duquesne winning the NEC even after the loss to Wagner. It helps that they play CCSU at home.
- Alabama State’s still in the mix after Jackson State lost because Jackson State still holds that head-to-head advantage in the SWAC East.
How Good Is Everybody?
Movelor’s (FCS) Top 25:
How Good Is Everybody? (continued)
We’re getting close to seeing NDSU back in the overall Division I top 25 for Movelor. This team is really good. Other things that stand out…
- Tarleton passed South Dakota State. The Chase Mason injury matters, but the Jacks got smacked. That Montana State win is holding a lot together.
- Montana is getting closer to the front pack again. Nice to see them take it out on big-talkin’ Sacramento State.
- We called Mercer one of the ten best teams in the country earlier, and we meant it.
- It’s still eye-popping how close so many of these teams are to one another. 4.4 points separate 11th from 23rd, and the separation doesn’t increase once you get outside the top 25.
- Going off of that: Southern Utah could finish the year in Movelor’s top ten. Southern Utah is currently 3–5. So many close losses to start the year.
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