FCS Bracketology

Below you’ll find the latest outputs from our college football bracketology model, which uses our Movelor power-rating system and FCS playoff selection formula to simulate the remainder of the college football system 10,000 times every week. Things to know:

• To build this, we line up every team in order by their average final committee ranking across our model’s simulations. We take the conference favorites and then the thirteen at-large teams with the best average ranking, line them up from 1 to 24, then pair the 9 through 16-seeds with the closest geographic unseeded team whom they don’t play in the regular season.
• This is not the single likeliest FCS bracket. It is, per our model, how each team’s average scenario compares with every other team’s average scenario.
• This is our first year publishing FCS Bracketology since 2018, which makes this model largely unproven. It does well in backtesting, but we can’t guarantee a specific level of accuracy.
• Every week, Joe Stunardi publishes a post explaining that week’s bracketology. Those can always be found at our homepage.

More resources from and about our model:

• College football probabilities (make playoff, win conference, etc.)
• Movelor game predictions
• College Football Playoff bracketology
• How our model works
• 2025–26 archives (coming soon)

Last Updated: Sunday, November 23rd, 9:10 AM EST

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