Last night, I thought it’d be interesting to find the best hitter in baseball who doesn’t have a home run yet this year.
Turns out that isn’t really someone who exists.
Technically, yes, there’s an answer, but the more interesting thing I got out of it was that every qualifying hitter at the MLB level (i.e., each hitter with at least 280 plate appearances or so) has hit a home run this season.
Here are the guys with the fewest:
Miguel Rojas, MIA: 351 PA’s, 1 HR
Yolmer Sánchez, CHW: 286 PA’s, 1 HR
Joe Panik, SF: 340 PA’s, 3 HR
Adam Frazier, PIT: 351 PA’s, 4 HR
Hanser Alberto, BAL: 300 PA’s, 4 HR
By dropping the qualifying threshold to 250 PA’s, you finally get someone with no home runs yet. Here’s the new top five:
Billy Hamilton, KC: 271 PA’s, 0 HR
Miguel Rojas, MIA: 351 PA’s, 1 HR
Yolmer Sánchez, CHW: 286 PA’s, 1 HR
Dee Gordon, SEA: 265 PA’s, 3 HR
Joe Panik, SF: 340 PA’s, 3 HR
But given that Billy Hamilton has only a 49 wRC+, 51% worse than an average MLB hitter, he can’t be the answer to the original question, right?
Well, it’s tricky. Here’s the list with the threshold at 200 PA’s:
Billy Hamilton, KC: 271 PA’s, 0 HR
Miguel Rojas, MIA: 351 PA’s, 1 HR
Yolmer Sánchez, CHW: 286 PA’s, 1 HR
Tony Wolters, COL: 242 PA’s, 1 HR
Nicky Lopez, KC: 218 PA’s, 1 HR
Elías Díaz, PIT: 206 PA’s, 1 HR
Here it is at 150 PA’s:
Billy Hamilton: KC, 271 PA’s, 0 HR
Miguel Rojas, MIA: 351 PA’s, 1 HR
Yolmer Sánchez, CHW: 286 PA’s, 1 HR
Tony Wolters, COL: 242 PA’s, 1 HR
Nicky Lopez, KC: 218 PA’s, 1 HR
Elías Díaz, PIT: 206 PA’s, 1 HR
Martín Prado, MIA: 163 PA’s, 1 HR
Charlie Tilson: 154 PA’s, 1 HR
Finally, at 125 PA’s, we get someone joining Hamilton:
Billy Hamilton, KC: 271 PA’s, 0 HR
Tim Locastro, ARZ: 134 PA’s, 0 HR
11 tied with 1 HR
Given Locastro’s got a 92 wRC+, he’s probably still not the answer to that original question. The real answer is either someone injured or someone very fresh to the big leagues. But either way, the biggest takeaway for me is the realization that Billy Hamilton is terrible at the plate.
I should have known this, of course. Looking at his career stats, I see that while this year is particularly futile (he had at least three homers in each of the last five seasons), it isn’t that much of an aberration. His wRC+ in 2015 was 53. Over his career, it’s 68.
That isn’t to say Billy Hamilton hasn’t been valuable. He’s a great defender and baserunner (when he’s on base), having produced at least one fWAR in each of his full MLB seasons so far. It’s just to say that he’s a very bad hitter, compared to the rest of Major League Baseball. It’s fascinating that a guy this bad can consistently be better overall than a replacement-level player. Impressive, even.
Looking back through history, this year might be an anomaly, but it’s too early to tell. Over the last ten seasons, 34 players have gotten at least 250 PA’s and failed to hit a single home run. Predictably, more of those came between 2009-2013 than 2014-2018 (24 in the former, ten in the latter), as the baseball became more prone to home runs, parks became more prone to home runs, and players shifted their approach in efforts to hit more home runs (alongside additional factors, but the list gets too long). Last year was the first time in that decade that nobody accomplished (is that a fair word?) the feat.
It’s possible Hamilton will hit one out sometime in the next few months (or pull off an inside-the-parker). It’s possible someone like Locastro will add enough plate appearances to his stat sheet to qualify and do so without hitting a home run. Or it’s possible we’re past the days of hitters who can’t hit home runs getting more than 250 chances to do so in a major league season. Which leads into perhaps the biggest point of this all:
Professional baseball players are really impressive athletes. Impressive enough that virtually all position players can hit a home run off major league pitching. Impressive enough that even fourteen of the pitchers have a home run this year. That, or hitting 90+ mph baseballs with movement more than 330 feet or so is easier than I think.
