Two more weeks in the FBS regular season. One more for most of the FCS. Here’s what we’ve got figured out about every conference tiebreaker.
For the FBS conferences and the SWAC, this is about who makes the conference championship. For the rest of the FCS, this is about who gets the league’s automatic bid to either the FCS Playoffs or, in the MEAC’s case, the Celebration Bowl. Some FCS conferences award co-championships. We ignore those and focus on the automatic qualifier, which we’ll sometimes call the AQ.
More details:
- When we mention the “chalk” scenario, that scenario is the one where every Movelor favorite wins every remaining game—Movelor is our college football model’s power rating system.
- When conferences haven’t made their tiebreaker rules clear, we assume they at least use head-to-head where applicable.
- For the FBS conferences, we’re grateful to bball.nothing.net for all their work. It’s the best tool on the internet for FBS and college basketball tiebreakers, and it’s invaluable for checking our work.
- Please let us know if you find errors or typos.
ACC
Potential tied top-two finishers:
- Virginia (6–1)
- SMU (6–1)
- Pitt (6–1)
- Georgia Tech (6–2)
- Duke (5–2)
- Miami (5–2)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Miami at Pitt
- Virginia Tech at Virginia
- SMU at Cal
- Wake Forest at Duke
- North Carolina at NC State
Scenarios (tiebreaker specifics below – only assumption is that hypothetical 10–2 Miami outranks Pitt, SMU, and Georgia Tech in SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score):
- If SMU and Virginia both win: SMU vs. Virginia
- If Pitt, SMU, and Virginia Tech win: Pitt vs. SMU
- If Pitt, Cal, and Virginia win: Pitt vs. Virginia
- If Pitt, Virginia Tech, Cal, and Wake Forest win: Pitt vs. Georgia Tech
- If Miami, Virginia Tech, SMU, and Wake Forest win: SMU vs. Miami
- If Pitt, Virginia Tech, Cal, and Duke win: Pitt vs. Georgia Tech
- If Miami, Virginia, Cal, and Duke win: Virginia vs. Duke
- If Miami, Virginia Tech, SMU, and Duke win: SMU vs. Duke
- If Miami, Virginia, Cal, Wake Forest, and UNC win: Virginia vs. SMU
- If Miami, Virginia, Cal, Wake Forest, and NC State win: Virginia vs. Miami
- If Miami, Virginia Tech, Cal, Wake Forest, and UNC win: Virginia vs. Miami
- If Miami, Virginia Tech, Cal, Wake Forest, and NC State win: Miami vs. Georgia Tech
- If Miami, Virginia Tech, Cal, Duke, and UNC win: Duke vs. Virginia
- If Miami, Virginia Tech, Cal, Duke, and NC State win: Duke vs. Miami
Tiebreaker details:
- 3-way tie for 1st, Pitt vs. Virginia vs. SMU: SMU and Virginia win because of their better record against common conference opponents (both beat Louisville, who beat Pitt).
- 3-way tie for 2nd, Virginia vs. SMU vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech wins through its better record against the trio’s lone common conference opponent, Wake Forest.
- 4-way tie for 2nd, SMU vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Georgia Tech (UNC over NC State): SMU wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record. Depending on the result of Boston College vs. Syracuse, SMU might be tied with Miami in that metric, but if they are, SMU wins a 2-way tiebreaker thanks to its head-to-head win over Miami.
- 4-way tie for 2nd, SMU vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Georgia Tech (NC State over UNC): Again, the path depends on the result of Boston College vs. Syracuse. Either Miami’s conference opponents have the best combined record, or Georgia Tech is eliminated because its opponents would have the worst combined record (the other three’s opponents would all have the same combined record), and the ensuing three-way tiebreaker goes to the SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score. I can’t find that online, but I’m assuming Miami outranks the others because of its superior overall record and overall résumé.
- 4-way tie for 2nd, Virginia vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Georgia Tech: Miami wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record.
- 4-way tie for 2nd, Virginia vs. SMU vs. Duke vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech and Duke would have the better record against the quartet’s lone common opponent, Wake Forest. Georgia Tech would then win the tiebreaker thanks to its head-to-head win over Duke.
- 5-way tie for 2nd, SMU vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Duke vs. Georgia Tech: Duke wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record.
- 5-way tie for 2nd, Virginia vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Duke vs. Georgia Tech: Duke wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record.
- 5-way tie for 1st, Virginia vs. SMU vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Georgia Tech (UNC over NC State): Depending on the result of Boston College vs. Syracuse, we get Virginia vs. Miami in one of two different ways. In one way, Virginia and Miami win because their conference opponents have the best combined record (tied with one another). In the other, Virginia wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record, and then Miami, Georgia Tech, and SMU would tie in that metric, leading us back to that SportSource Analytics Team Rating, where we assume Miami would lead and therefore get the second spot in the ACC Championship.
- 5-way tie for 1st, Virginia vs. SMU vs. Pitt vs. Miami vs. Georgia Tech (NC State over UNC): Miami and Georgia Tech would play in the ACC Championship based on each team’s conference opponents’ combined record. Depending on Boston College vs. Syracuse, either Miami and Georgia Tech would tie for the lead in that metric (within the tie) or Miami would lead Georgia Tech who would lead the rest of the tied teams.
- 6-way tie for 1st (UNC over NC State): Duke wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record. Virginia takes second through one of two different tiebreakers. Depending on the result of Boston College vs. Syracuse, Virginia’s conference opponents’ combined record is either alone in second or it’s tied with Miami. In a 2-way tie with Miami, Virginia wins thanks to its better record against the first common opponent in the standings against whom Virginia and Miami achieved a different result. (Virginia beat Louisville who beat Miami.)
- 6-way tie for 1st (NC State over UNC): Duke wins because its conference opponents would have the best combined record. Miami gets second through one of two different tiebreakers. Depending on the result of Boston College vs. Syracuse, Miami’s conference opponents’ combined record is either alone in second or it’s tied with Georgia Tech. In a 2-way tie with Georgia Tech, Miami wins thanks to its better record against common opponents.
American
Potential tied top-two finishers:
- North Texas (7–1)
- Navy (7–1)
- Tulane (6–1)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Charlotte at Tulane
Scenarios (tiebreaker and rankings details below):
- North Texas clinched a spot in the conference championship.
- If Tulane wins, Tulane will host the conference championship.
- If Tulane loses, North Texas will host the conference championship against Navy.
Tiebreaker and rankings details:
- In the American, if a tie can’t be solved by head-to-head, it goes straight to the rankings. Those rankings say that if the top-ranked tied team in last Tuesday’s CFP rankings wins, they win that tie.
- If the CFP Rankings can’t be used, the American uses a combination of ESPN’s SP+, ESPN’s SOR, KPI, and something called SportSource TR116 SOR. I don’t know where to find that last one, but the American has acknowledged that North Texas is ahead of Navy.
Big 12
BYU and Texas Tech will play one another in the Big 12 Championship. The only question is which one wears its home uniform.
Potential tied top-two finishers:
- Texas Tech (7–1)
- BYU (7–1)
- Utah (7–2)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Texas Tech at West Virginia
- UCF at BYU
Tiebreaker details:
- 2-way, Texas Tech vs. Utah: Texas Tech wins through head-to-head.
- 2-way, BYU vs. Utah: BYU wins through head-to-head.
- 3-way, Texas Tech vs. BYU vs. Utah: Texas Tech wins because it swept BYU and Utah, then BYU wins the 2-way tiebreaker over Utah through head-to-head.
Big Ten
Potential tied top-two finishers:
- Indiana (8–0)
- Ohio State (8–0)
- Oregon (7–1)
- Michigan (7–1)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Indiana at Purdue
- Oregon at Washington
- Ohio State at Michigan
Scenarios:
- If Indiana and Ohio State win: Indiana vs. Ohio State
- If Indiana, Michigan, and Oregon win: Indiana vs. Oregon
- If Indiana, Michigan, and Washington win: Indiana vs. Michigan
- If Purdue and Ohio State win: Ohio State vs. Indiana
- If Purdue, Michigan, and Oregon win: Oregon vs. Michigan
- If Purdue, Michigan, and Washington win: Michigan vs. Ohio State
Tiebreaker details:
- 2-way, Indiana vs. Oregon: Indiana wins through head-to-head.
- 2-way, Ohio State vs. Michigan: Michigan wins through head-to-head.
- 3-way, Ohio State vs. Michigan vs. Oregon: Oregon wins because its opponents have the best combined conference record.
- 3-way for 1st, Indiana vs. Michigan vs. Ohio State: Indiana is eliminated because it would have the worst record against common conference opponents. Michigan beats Ohio State through head-to-head, taking first place. Indiana is reinserted into what becomes a 2-way tiebreaker for 2nd place. Ohio State wins that tiebreaker, again because Indiana would have the worse record against common conference opponents.
- 4-way for 1st, Indiana vs. Michigan vs. Ohio State vs. Oregon: Oregon takes 1st place because its opponents have the best combined conference record. Michigan takes second through the 3-way Michigan vs. Ohio State vs. Indiana tiebreaker described in the last bullet.
Conference USA
Potential tied top-two finishers (Missouri State is ineligible for the conference championship because they’re still transitioning to the FBS):
- Jacksonville State (6–1)
- Western Kentucky (6–1)
- Kennesaw State (6–1)
- Missouri State* (5–2)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State
- Louisiana Tech at Missouri State (potentially)
- Kennesaw State at Liberty
Scenarios (if I understand Conference USA’s tiebreaker protocol correctly—more on that below):
- The winner of Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky will host the Conference USA Championship.
- If Kennesaw State beats Liberty, Kennesaw State will make the championship game as the visiting team.
- If Liberty beats Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State beats Western Kentucky, Kennesaw State will still make the championship game as the visiting team.
- If Liberty beats Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky beats Jacksonville State, Jacksonville State will make the championship game as the visiting team.
Tiebreaker specifics:
- Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State, both 7–1: Jacksonville State won head-to-head.
- Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State, both 6–2: Jacksonville State won head-to-head.
- Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State, all 6–2: If Missouri State is included in this tiebreaker, they win it because they have the best record against common conference opponents. My assumption is that the tiebreaker would then start over between the remaining teams, which would give Jacksonville State the tiebreaker through head-to-head. If it doesn’t start over, it proceeds to an average of rankings by ESPN’s SP+, ESPN’s SOR, KPI, and SportSource Analytics. I don’t know where to find SportSource’s rankings.
- Western Kentucky vs. Kennesaw State, both 7–1: They didn’t play head-to-head, and they have the same record against common conference opponents, but Western Kentucky has a better record against the teams with the best conference record, going 2–0 against 6–2 teams in this scenario (KSU will have gone 1–1).
- Western Kentucky vs. Kennesaw State, both 6–2: In this scenario, Kennesaw State will have the better record against common conference opponents (5–1 vs. 4–2).
- Western Kentucky vs. Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State, all 6–2: If Missouri State is included, Western Kentucky gets eliminated first through the three teams’ records against their common opponents (4–0 for Missouri State and Kennesaw, 3–1 for WKU). From there, Kennesaw State would win over Missouri State thanks to head-to-head.
MAC
Western Michigan has clinched first place in the MAC and will be playing in the conference championship.
Potential tied second place finishers:
- Ohio (6–2)
- Miami–Ohio (5–2)
- Central Michigan (5–2)
- Toledo (5–2)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Toledo at Central Michigan
- Ball State at Miami (OH)
Scenarios:
- If Miami wins: Western Michigan vs. Miami.
- If Ball State wins: Western Michigan vs. Unknown (see below).
Tiebreaker specifics:
- 2-way tie, Central Michigan vs. Ohio: This one is confusing. I thought that if Kent State beat NIU, Central Michigan would win this tiebreaker thanks to its conference opponents having the better combined record. The MAC, though, seems to be ignoring that tiebreaker (they must have changed the rules) and leaving this up to the SportSource Analytics Team Rating score. They say that currently favors Ohio.
- 2-way tie, Miami vs. Central Michigan: Miami wins through its better record against common conference opponents.
- 2-way tie, Toledo vs. Miami: Toledo wins through head-to-head.
- 2-way tie, Toledo vs. Ohio: This one is also confusing. I thought that Toledo would win the tiebreaker thanks to its win over Ball State, the highest common opponent in the standings against whom Toledo and Ohio achieved a different result. The MAC, though, seems to be ignoring that tiebreaker (they must have changed the rules) and leaving this up to the SportSource Analytics Team Rating score. They say that currently favors Toledo.
- 3-way tie, Miami vs. Ohio vs. Central Michigan: Miami wins through having the best record against common conference opponents.
- 3-way tie, Miami vs. Ohio vs. Toledo: Miami wins through having the best record against common conference opponents.
Mountain West
Potential tied top-two finishers:
- New Mexico (6–2)
- San Diego State (6–2)
- Boise State (6–2)
- UNLV (5–2)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- UNLV at Nevada
Scenarios:
- The computers are going to be involved.
In the Mountain West, when a tiebreaker can’t be solved by head-to-head, it goes to an aggregate of computer rankings: SP+, ESPN’s SOR, KPI, and something from SportSource. We don’t know what SportSource says, and that’s important because the other three are really close.
SEC
Potential tied top-two finishers:
- Georgia (7–1)
- Mississippi (7–1)
- Texas A&M (7–1)
- Alabama (6–1)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Alabama at Auburn
Scenarios:
- If Alabama wins: Alabama vs. Georgia
- If Auburn wins: Georgia vs. Mississippi
Tiebreaker details:
- 3-way, Texas A&M vs. Georgia vs. Mississippi: Georgia wins because its conference opponents will have the best combined record. Mississippi then wins a 2-way tiebreaker over Texas A&M, again through the combined records of conference opponents.
- 4-way, Texas A&M vs. Georgia vs. Alabama vs. Mississippi: Alabama wins because its conference opponents will have the best combined record. In some cases, Georgia is tied with Alabama and also qualifies for the SEC Championship that way. In others, it has to win a 3-way tiebreaker over Texas A&M and Mississippi, which it wins through—again—the combined records of its conference opponents.
Sun Belt
James Madison has clinched the East Division and has clinched hosting the Sun Belt Championship.
Potential tied champions, West Division:
- Southern Miss (5–2)
- Troy (5–2)
Remaining impactful conference games:
- Troy at Southern Miss
Scenarios:
- The winner of Troy at Southern Miss will play at James Madison in the Sun Belt Championship.
Big Sky
Montana State won the Big Sky outright.
CAA
Rhode Island won the CAA outright.
Ivy League
Yale won the Ivy League AQ through its head-to-head win over Harvard.
MEAC
South Carolina State won the MEAC outright.
MVFC
North Dakota State won the MVFC outright.
NEC
Central Connecticut State won the NEC outright.
OVC–Big South
Tennessee Tech won the OVC–Big South outright.
Patriot League
Lehigh won the Patriot League outright.
Pioneer League
Drake won the Pioneer League outright.
Southern Conference
Mercer won the SoCon outright.
Southland
Stephen F. Austin won the Southland outright.
SWAC
Prairie View A&M won the SWAC West outright. Jackson State won the SWAC East through its head-to-head win over Alabama State. Jackson State will host the SWAC Championship because of its ranking in the FCS Coaches Poll.
UAC
Abilene Christian won the UAC AQ through its head-to-head win over Tarleton State.
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