We’re entering the home stretch of college football’s regular season, and conference races are coming into focus. Here’s where each conference picture stands, with notes about relevant tiebreakers.
Note: This post will be updated every few days as results come in. So if you’d like to keep checking in, go ahead and bookmark it. It was last updated after games of Saturday, 11/2/24.
SEC
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Texas A&M | 5 | 1 |
| Georgia | 5 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 4 | 1 |
| Texas | 3 | 1 |
| LSU | 3 | 1 |
| Alabama | 3 | 2 |
| Mississippi | 3 | 2 |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 2 |
| Missouri | 2 | 2 |
Our policy is currently to include anyone within one loss of second place in this post. As weeks go on and certain teams within one loss get eliminated, we will adjust our policy.
Eliminated
It’s possible there are more teams on this list, but teams who are definitely eliminated include Oklahoma, Auburn, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Texas A&M holds the head-to-head over Missouri and LSU. Texas A&M has yet to play Texas (H).
- Georgia holds the head-to-head over Texas. Georgia lost to Alabama. Georgia has yet to play Mississippi (A) and Tennessee (H).
- Tennessee holds the head-to-head over Alabama. Tennessee has yet to play Georgia (A) and Vanderbilt (A).
- Texas holds the head-to-head over Vanderbilt. Texas lost to Georgia. Texas has yet to play Texas A&M (A).
- LSU holds the head-to-head over Mississippi. LSU lost to Texas A&M. LSU has yet to play Alabama (H) and Vanderbilt (H).
- Alabama holds the head-to-head over Georgia and Missouri. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Alabama has yet to play LSU (A).
- Mississippi holds no relevant head-to-heads. Mississippi lost to LSU. Mississippi has yet to play Georgia (H).
- Vanderbilt holds the head-to-head over Alabama. Vanderbilt lost to Missouri and Texas. Vanderbilt has yet to play LSU (A) and Tennessee (H).
- Missouri holds the head-to-head over Vanderbilt. Missouri lost to Texas A&M and Alabama. Missouri has no games remaining against teams on this list.
This is a mess, and there’s not a lot to make of it just yet. We’re not to the point of worrying about three-way ties, but it’s quite possible we’ll be worrying about those soon. By my count, there are still 22 games remaining which could impact the SEC race. That means there are roughly 4.2 million remaining combinations of results.
Big Ten
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Indiana | 6 | 0 |
| Oregon | 6 | 0 |
| Ohio State | 4 | 1 |
| Penn State | 4 | 1 |
Our “within one loss of second place” circle is smaller here.
Eliminated
Again, it’s possible there are teams at 3–3 for whom no path exists, but the teams who can’t even tie for second place are UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, USC, Maryland, Rutgers, and Purdue.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Indiana has yet to play Ohio State (A).
- Oregon holds the head-to-head over Ohio State.
- Ohio State holds the head-to-head over Penn State. Ohio State lost to Oregon. Ohio State has yet to play Indiana (H).
- Penn State lost to Ohio State.
The “all favorites win” scenario:
- If Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State all finish 8–1, Ohio State will win the tiebreaker by virtue of having beaten the other two head-to-head. This applies even though Indiana and Penn State won’t play head-to-head. So, Ohio State still controls its fate and will make the Big Ten Championship if it wins out.
Other scenarios are still a little too varied (13 relevant games means 8,192 combinations of results, and a lot of those start looping in teams with two losses), but this one—the likeliest individual outcome, though not all that likely itself—is the most relevant right now. There is no longer any path to three 9–0 teams.
Big 12
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| BYU | 5 | 0 |
| Iowa State | 4 | 1 |
| Colorado | 4 | 1 |
| Kansas State | 4 | 2 |
| Texas Tech | 4 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 2 |
| Arizona State | 3 | 2 |
| West Virginia | 3 | 2 |
We suspected we might have to expand this list, and we were right. Welcome to the picture, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Arizona State, and West Virginia.
Eliminated
At least one of Iowa State and Kansas State will get to five wins, which means in addition to 0–6 Oklahoma State, 1–5 Arizona is out of the race.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- BYU holds the head-to-head over Kansas State. BYU has yet to play Arizona State (A).
- Iowa State holds the head-to-head over West Virginia. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech. Iowa State has yet to play Cincinnati (H) and Kansas State (H).
- Colorado holds the head-to-head over Cincinnati. Colorado lost to Kansas State. Colorado has yet to play Texas Tech (A).
- Kansas State holds the head-to-head over Colorado. Kansas State lost to BYU. Kansas State has yet to play Arizona State (H), Cincinnati (H), and Iowa State (A).
- Texas Tech holds the head-to-head over Arizona State, Iowa State, and Cincinnati. Texas Tech has yet to play Colorado (H) and West Virginia (H).
- Cincinnati holds the head-to-head over Arizona State. Cincinnati lost to Texas Tech and Colorado. Cincinnati has yet to play West Virginia (H), Iowa State (A), and Kansas State (A).
- Arizona State lost to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Arizona State has yet to play Kansas State (A) and BYU (H).
- West Virginia lost to Iowa State and Kansas State. West Virginia has yet to play Cincinnati (A) and Texas Tech (A).
Kansas State’s head-to-head win over Colorado helps, and they could get another one over Iowa State. Texas Tech could get a win over Colorado and already has one over Iowa State. Beyond that, it’s hard to tell too much so far. This will probably be neither neat nor tidy.
ACC
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Miami | 5 | 0 |
| SMU | 5 | 0 |
| Clemson | 5 | 1 |
| Pitt | 3 | 1 |
Louisville’s hanging right outside this list at 4–2, but they lost to both Miami and SMU, so we aren’t terribly worried about this list expanding right now.
Eliminated
Stanford, Cal, and Florida State are out of this. Peas in a pod, those three.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Miami holds no relevant head-to-head tiebreakers, has not lost at all, and plays no more relevant teams the rest of the regular season.
- SMU holds the head-to-head over Pitt.
- Clemson has yet to play Pitt (A).
- Pitt lost to SMU. Pitt has yet to play Clemson (H).
The scenario with three 8–0 teams is no longer on the table. In its wake, there isn’t much left. Miami and SMU should both be heavy favorites in all of their remaining regular season games. Pitt’s a little boxed out, because even if Pitt beats Clemson and SMU loses a game, SMU will win the tiebreaker. But Pitt might have paths if Miami loses a game, so…we’ll see.
Mountain West
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Boise State | 4 | 0 |
| Colorado State | 4 | 0 |
| San Diego State | 2 | 1 |
| UNLV | 2 | 1 |
I don’t think this list will expand, but I could get surprised. Because of the Mountain West’s scheduling agreement with Oregon State and Washington State, its teams are only playing seven conference games this year. So, prepare for some weirdness.
Eliminated
Air Force and Nevada are each eliminated, sitting at 0–4.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Boise State holds the head-to-head over UNLV and San Diego State.
- Colorado State holds no relevant head-to-head tiebreakers, has not lost in conference play, and plays no more relevant teams the rest of the regular season.
- San Diego State lost to Boise State (A). San Diego State has yet to play UNLV (A).
- UNLV lost to Boise State. UNLV has yet to play San Diego State (H).
First off, remember that the Mountain West Championship is played on someone’s home field. Right now, that’s likeliest to be Boise State’s.
The likeliest tie here is one between Colorado State and UNLV. Head-to-head would not be applicable, so in an understandable effort to boost their champion’s playoff chances, the Mountain West would use a combination of the latest available CFP rankings and a selection of rating systems. It’s unlikely that any MWC team besides Boise State will be ranked in the CFP rankings, so this will probably go to the rating systems, which currently favor UNLV.
American Athletic Conference
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Army | 6 | 0 |
| Tulane | 5 | 0 |
| Navy | 4 | 1 |
Goodbye to Memphis, at least for now. Army and Tulane are each getting closer to a clinch, or were getting closer before Bryson Daily went down for Army.
Eliminated
UAB, Tulsa, and FAU are all eliminated. It’s possible the list is longer than that.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Army doesn’t play Memphis or Tulane, and it doesn’t play Navy until after the AAC Championship, so that game won’t count in the conference standings.
- Tulane has yet to play Navy (A).
- Navy has yet to play Tulane (H).
The AAC’s tiebreaker process is almost identical to the Mountain West’s, even using the same ratings systems if head-to-head isn’t applicable or fails to break the tie. At the moment, Navy has the path to a head-to-head tiebreaker, but an Army loss at North Texas could shake things up.
Sun Belt East
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Georgia Southern | 4 | 1 |
| Marshall | 3 | 1 |
| Old Dominion | 3 | 2 |
| James Madison | 2 | 2 |
The Sun Belt still uses divisions. Here’s who’s within one loss of the East Division lead.
Eliminated
I don’t think anyone’s technically been eliminated yet. Not even Georgia State, who is 0–4 in Sun Belt play.
Relevant Tiebreakers.
Here’s the tiebreaker procedure. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Georgia Southern holds the head-to-head over Marshall and James Madison. Georgia Southern lost to Old Dominion.
- Marshall lost to Georgia Southern. Marshall has yet to play Old Dominion (A) and James Madison (A).
- Old Dominion holds the head-to-head over Georgia Southern. Old Dominion has yet to play James Madison (H) and Marshall (H).
- James Madison lost to Georgia Southern. James Madison has yet to play Old Dominion (A) and Marshall (H).
Georgia Southern holding the head-to-head’s here over both Marshall and James Madison is significant, as is Old Dominion having yet to lose to any of these three teams.
Sun Belt West
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Louisiana | 4 | 0 |
| Arkansas State | 3 | 1 |
Eliminated
I’m not sure anyone is technically eliminated yet.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Louisiana has yet to play Arkansas State (H).
- Arkansas State has yet to play Louisiana (A).
If Louisiana beats Arkansas State this coming week, Louisiana probably wins the West. If Arkansas State wins, Arkansas State has the leg up on ULL but we reintroduce South Alabama and possibly UL Monroe to this mix. (When we have a clearer East Division picture, we’ll start worrying about who gets home-field advantage in the conference championship.)
Conference USA
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Western Kentucky | 4 | 0 |
| Jacksonville State | 4 | 0 |
| Sam Houston | 4 | 1 |
Liberty is next, at 3–2, and could technically get back into this. But they’re two back of second place in the loss column, and that’s where we’re drawing the line.
Eliminated
I don’t think anyone’s technically been eliminated yet. UTEP’s the closest, at 1–4.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker policy. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Western Kentucky holds the head-to-head over Sam Houston. Western Kentucky has yet to play Jacksonville State (H).
- Jacksonville State has yet to play Sam Houston (H) and Western Kentucky (A).
- Sam Houston lost to Western Kentucky. Sam Houston has yet to play Jacksonville State (A).
If these three reach a three-way tie, the tiebreaker will go to the same rating systems we’ve been seeing elsewhere. It’s hard to say at this point whom that would favor.
MAC
Contenders
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Western Michigan | 4 | 0 |
| Miami (OH) | 3 | 1 |
| Ohio | 3 | 1 |
| Bowling Green | 3 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 2 |
| Toledo | 3 | 2 |
| Ball State | 2 | 2 |
Much like the SEC’s, this is a long list. For those wondering, NIU is 1–3 in MAC play.
Eliminated
Nobody yet. The league is halfway through its conference season, and I believe Kent State retains a path.
Relevant Tiebreakers
Here’s the tiebreaker policy. Here’s where things stand for potential two-way ties:
- Western Michigan holds the head-to-head over Ball State and Buffalo. Western Michigan has yet to play Bowling Green (A).
- Miami (OH) holds the head-to-head over Ohio. Miami lost to Toledo. Miami has yet to play Bowling Green (A).
- Ohio holds the head-to-head over Buffalo. Ohio lost to Miami. Ohio has yet to play Toledo (A) and Ball State (H).
- Bowling Green holds the head-to-head over Toledo. Bowling Green has yet to play Western Michigan (H), Ball State (A), and Miami (H).
- Buffalo holds the head-to-head over Toledo. Buffalo lost to Western Michigan and Ohio. Buffalo has yet to play Ball State (H).
- Toledo holds the head-to-head over Miami. Toledo lost to Buffalo and Bowling Green. Toledo has yet to play Ohio (H).
- Ball State lost to Western Michigan. Ball State has yet to play Miami (H), Buffalo (A), Bowling Green (H), and Ohio (A).
It’s too early to tell much here, too.
How Our Model Is Handling All of This
Our model doesn’t have any tiebreakers directly coded in. We want to get to that level of precision, but it’s at least a year away. Instead, we use a random variable to determine tiebreakers. Here are the exceptions we’ve now coded in:
- SEC: No adjustments yet.
- Big Ten: Ohio State and Oregon have ten times as good a chance of winning any tiebreaker than the rest of the conference.
- Big 12: BYU, Kansas State, and Texas Tech have twice as good a chance of winning any tiebreaker as the rest of the conference.
- ACC: Pitt has half as good a chance of winning any tiebreaker as the conference baseline. Louisville has a tenth the chance of the conference baseline.
- Mountain West: Boise State has one hundred times as good a chance of winning any tiebreaker than the conference baseline. UNLV has ten times as good a chance.
- AAC: No adjustments yet.
- Sun Belt: Arkansas State has ten times as good a chance of winning a tiebreaker as the conference baseline. Louisiana and Old Dominion have five times as good a chance. Georgia Southern has three times as good a chance. This is rough, and we’re hoping to have specific scenarios soon.
- Conference USA: No adjustments right now.
- MAC: No adjustments yet.
- FCS: It’s unlikely we’ll do any FCS scenarios this year. We’ll have our forecasts once the FCS bracket is set, but we don’t intend to project that bracket ahead of time.
