With our final dose of MACtion last night, the last week of college football’s regular season is upon us. Next Friday and Saturday, twenty teams will play for ten conference championships. Here’s how we get to the twenty:
SEC: It’s Georgia vs. Alabama
No drama here. We’re locked in. Georgia plays Alabama. It is decided.
Big Ten: Ohio State/Michigan vs. Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota
Ohio State and Michigan are clear of Michigan State in the event a tiebreaker is needed, meaning it’ll just be head-to-head if that comes to pass. The tiebreaker is only needed if Michigan beats the Buckeyes, meaning the game in Ann Arbor on Saturday really is the Big Ten East title game.
In the West, it’s complicated.
If Wisconsin wins against Minnesota, they’re in, either because they’re alone in first in the division or because they win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Iowa, having beaten the Hawkeyes earlier this year.
If Minnesota beats Wisconsin and Iowa beats Nebraska, Iowa is in, standing alone atop the standings.
If Minnesota beats Wisconsin and Nebraska beats Iowa and Purdue beats Indiana, there’s a four-way tie which goes to Minnesota (Purdue and Iowa would each be 1-2 against the other three schools in the tie, so they’d be eliminated, leaving Minnesota to claim the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Badgers).
If Minnesota beats Wisconsin and Nebraska beats Iowa and Indiana beats Purdue, there’s a three-way tie between Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa, with all three teams 1-1 against each other. If this happens, it goes to record within the division, where Minnesota would be 4-2, Iowa would be 3-3, and Wisconsin would be 5-1, handing the division, if I’m understanding this correctly, to Wisconsin.
Big 12: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma/Baylor
Oklahoma State is in. The Pokes have the head-to-head with Baylor should it come to that, and it might not come to that. For the other spot:
If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma is in. Bedlam, Round 2. Oklahoma is also in if Baylor loses to Texas Tech.
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Baylor beats Texas Tech, Baylor is in by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Sooners. Overall, Oklahoma has the advantage over the Bears, but it’s narrow.
Pac-12: Utah vs. Oregon/Oregon State/Washington State
The North’s not over! Oregon only leads by one game, and they play one of the teams which trails them, in Oregon State. So while Utah’s in, here’s who they could play:
If Oregon wins, Oregon’s in.
If Oregon loses to Oregon State and Washington beats Washington State, Oregon State is in via the head-to-head.
If Oregon loses to Oregon State and Washington State beats Washington, Washington State is in, as the teams would all be 1-1 against each other but only one of Wazzu’s three conference losses would have come against teams within the division.
ACC: Pitt vs. Wake Forest/Clemson/NC State
Pitt has clinched the Coastal. The Atlantic’s still a race.
If Wake Forest beats Boston College, Wake Forest is in.
If Boston College beats Wake Forest and NC State beats UNC, NC State is in, with Wake Forest having the worse division record in this scenario and NC State having beaten Clemson head-to-head.
If Boston College beats Wake Forest and UNC beats NC State, Clemson is in, holding the head-to-head over Wake Forest.
AAC: Houston vs. Cincinnati
This one is locked in, but the location is not. If Cincinnati wins against East Carolina, they’ll host by virtue of holding the higher College Football Playoff ranking. If Cincinnati loses against East Carolina, Houston will host because the Cougars will be alone in first in the standings.
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Appalachian State
Appalachian State could still end up in a tie in their division, but they’ve beaten both Georgia State and Coastal Carolina, so they’ll win that tiebreaker. Similarly, Appalachian State could still end up tied with Louisiana-Lafayette, but the Cajuns hold that head-to-head win and will therefore host the game.
Mountain West: San Diego State/Fresno State vs. Air Force/Utah State/Boise State
In the West…
If San Diego State beats Boise State or if Fresno State loses to San José State, San Diego State is in.
If Boise State beats San Diego State and Fresno State beats San José State, Fresno State is in.
In the Mountain…
If Air Force beats UNLV and Boise State beats San Diego State, Air Force is in, holding the head-to-head over the Broncos with Utah State eliminated from the tiebreaker by division record.
If Air Force beats UNLV and San Diego State beats Boise State and Utah State beats New Mexico, Utah State is in, holding the head-to-head over Air Force.
If Air Force beats UNLV and San Diego State beats Boise State and New Mexico beats Utah State, Air Force is in, alone in first.
If UNLV beats Air Force and Boise State beats San Diego State, Boise State is in, holding the head-to-head over Utah State if it comes to that.
If UNLV beats Air Force and San Diego State beats Boise State and Utah State beats New Mexico, Utah State is in, alone in first.
If UNLV beats Air Force and San Diego State beats Boise State and New Mexico beats Utah State, Air Force is in, again holding the head-to-head over the Broncos with Utah State eliminated by division record.
As for who hosts…
If San Diego State beats Boise State, San Diego State hosts.
If Boise State beats San Diego State and makes the championship, Boise State hosts, holding the head-to-head tiebreaker in this scenario over both SDSU and Fresno State.
If San Diego State loses to Boise State but still makes it, they host if they play Air Force, and they can’t play Utah State because Utah State is eliminated with a Boise State win.
If Fresno State makes it and plays Air Force, it’s unclear who hosts. The rules say, “a composite average of selected computer rankings after all games conclude the final weekend of the regular season will be used,” and I don’t know which rankings they’ll use for that. Fresno State cannot play Utah State because Boise State would’ve won in this scenario.
Congratulations, Mountain West. You’re the most complicated, and you have one scenario (Fresno State vs. Air Force, which happens if four games go an exact certain way) that leaves us unsure of what happens.
Conference USA: UTSA vs. Western Kentucky/Marshall
UTSA is in out of the West. In the East, Marshall trails WKU by a game and the two play this weekend, meaning the winner will advance to play UTSA. UTSA will host the game, leading WKU by one game right now and Marshall by two while having beaten Western Kentucky head-to-head.
MAC: Northern Illinois vs. Kent State/Miami (OH)
NIU clinched the West last week, since they already held the head-to-head over Central Michigan, who could tie them. In the East, Miami and Kent State play on Saturday, with the winner advancing. Unlike the other Power Five leagues, the MAC’s championship is at a neutral site.
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Overall, then, we have eighteen teams playing for ten spots in Power Five championships, and fifteen alive for the ten in Group of Five championships, meaning 33 teams have a shot at a conference title overall entering this final weekend.
