Is John Mateer seriously going to play? Can Texas, Illinois, and USC battle back? Will Missouri catch Alabama sleeping? How good is Indiana, really? It’s Week 7, the season’s halfway point for a lot of teams. We’ve got numbers, and we’ve got thoughts.
The fine print: Playoff probabilities come from our model and were taken before any games were played this week. Betting market spreads were taken Thursday afternoon and evening. Rating system spreads come from Movelor—our model’s power rating system—plus Slate Fluker and Jeff Sagarin’s overall Rating prediction. Those last two are the two most accurate prediction systems so far this year on The Prediction Tracker. (Closing lines are missing FBS vs. FBS final spreads by an average of 11.4 points per game. Slate Fluker and Sagarin Ratings are missing by 11.6. Movelor is missing by 12.1.)
Indiana at Oregon
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT (CBS)
Playoff probabilities:
- Oregon: 93% entering week, 97% with a win, 80% with a loss
- Indiana: 77% entering week, 94% with a win, 72% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Oregon by 6.5
- Movelor: Oregon by 12.2
- Slate Fluker: Oregon by 7.0
- Sagarin: Oregon by 10.75
We’ve seen a lot from Curt Cignetti’s teams at Indiana, but we’ve yet to see them hang with a team decidedly bigger, faster, and stronger than they are. That’s the situation here. This isn’t Indiana vs. Illinois. This is Indiana vs. Ohio State again, or at least Indiana vs. Notre Dame. What happened in those games? It was clear early on that Indiana was overmatched. Once that was established, Cignetti ate clock, trying to minimize the optical damage.
Does that script repeat itself tomorrow in Eugene? It seems pretty likely, especially since Oregon has the beef necessary to run the ball reliably through Indiana’s front seven. Indiana does have Fernando Mendoza going for it, but quarterbacks can only do so much, and it’s not like Mendoza’s an undisputed top-five college QB. He knows what he’s doing out there, and he probably also doesn’t have much of a chance in hell.
Thankfully for Indiana, their schedule is different from last year’s. Nobody serious is going to campaign for their playoff exclusion if they get beat up one time. Take care of business from here, and the Hoosiers should be in, even if that means 10–2, with Penn State still dangerous no matter how hard they’re reeling right now.
What if Indiana wins? They’ll get all the credit in the world, and they’ll deserve it to an extent. But in that universe, Indiana will have beat the team who barely beat the team who lost to UCLA. The takeaway will be that Indiana’s second-best in the Big Ten. Incredible, but not national championship contention.
Alabama at Missouri
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT (ABC)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama: 61% entering week, 72% with a win, 34% with a loss
- Missouri: 23% entering week, 44% with a win, 14% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Alabama by 2.5
- Movelor: Alabama by 7.9
- Slate Fluker: Alabama by 6.5
- Sagarin: Alabama by 3.21
What a difference a month makes. It was easy to write Alabama off after the loss at Florida State. But the season’s longer now that twelve teams make the playoffs, and Alabama’s back to what’s become its norm under Kalen DeBoer: A team with a national championship ceiling whom nobody should be willing to trust.
The question here is Trap Game. Will Alabama, fresh off avoiding the post-Georgia trap against Vanderbilt, fall into a post-Vanderbilt trap in a Mizzou game with an early kick?
On paper, it’s hard to parse. Alabama is the more talented, better team, but the gap isn’t as big as it was against Vandy, and Alabama had some concerning moments against Vandy. The concern for the Tide, at least as I see it, is that Mizzou’s defensive line will make Bama’s tired offensive line work, and that Beau Pribula will make Alabama’s defense look more like Kansas than the teams Missouri’s played since.
What would that do? Alabama would still have a solid playoff shot. Their other loss came in nonconference and they have a head-to-head advantage over Georgia, which could be relevant in making the SEC Championship. We’re also seeing a pretty good chance multiple 9–3 teams make the College Football Playoff, giving Alabama enough cover to keep them firmly on our radar. For Mizzou, the job would be far from finished, but a 6–0 start means you probably only need a 4–2 finish, if that. That’s highly possible.
Unfortunately for Mizzou, there’s a risk that this is not the same distracted Kalen DeBoer Alabama, and that Faurot Field becomes a launchpad for a serious Ty Simpson Heisman campaign. There’s buzz calling Simpson the best quarterback in the country, and last year when a similarly troubled Alabama played Mizzou, it was not a competitive game. So much revolves around Alabama’s line play, but the talent is absolutely there, and you’d hope that after FSU, these guys wouldn’t take a ranked road game lightly. We’ll see, but Missouri’s the clear underdog here. You don’t want to rely on the other team to show up unprepared.
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT (ABC)
Playoff probabilities:
- Texas: 19% entering week, 26% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Oklahoma: 14% entering week, 28% with a win, 7% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Texas by 1.5
- Movelor: Texas by 7.1
- Slate Fluker: Texas by 5.0
- Sagarin: Texas by 2.12
Our model says Texas is a more serious playoff contender than Oklahoma. Our model doesn’t know John Mateer broke his hand a couple weeks ago. Is our model nuts?
Really, what we’re seeing here is that Texas and Oklahoma have arrived to about the exact same place. Texas is in that place at 3–2 while Oklahoma’s 5–0, but to make the playoff, each is going to have to beat at least two of the fifteen best teams in the country. UT and OU both have major questions at quarterback, and neither has looked phenomenal overall. Oklahoma’s big wins came over Michigan and Auburn. Both those wins came at home. Movelor doesn’t have Auburn favored in any game this month.
The idea with Oklahoma is that their defense is great and that John Mateer can play enough streetball to give the Sooner offense a chance. That’s a recipe that’s hard to make work over a full SEC season, though, maybe best exemplified by the fact Mateer already has a broken hand. Even assuming he does play tomorrow, an already questionable offense is going to be more limited than usual.
That all said, the OU defense is for real, and while Arch Manning looked better against Florida (contrary to the message of that bizarre New York Times blogpost), it’s fair to say that Texas’s offense is in a crisis. Something’s gone wrong on the line. Manning is fine but nowhere near a historic talent. Making matters worse, the idea with Texas was that their defense might be the best in the country, and that this might make things simpler for the Longhorn offense. Against Florida, Texas’s defense was not the best in the country.
This is the Red River Shootout, so I know this would be a shock, but there’s major rock fight potential tomorrow at the Cotton Bowl. With the loser also pretty much eliminated from the playoff, that sets up a depressing Saturday night for somebody, with the other still facing long odds ahead.
Addendum: Should Mateer Play?
There’s a compelling argument that John Mateer should not play against Texas and that Oklahoma should take its chances with the option of telling the committee, “That loss shouldn’t count. We didn’t have our quarterback.” I lean towards thinking Mateer should play if he’s able, on the basis that if it goes badly, Oklahoma can still say the loss shouldn’t count because their quarterback was playing hurt. Not a lot of precedent, though, and the degree of SEC politicking employed on OU’s behalf might hinge on whether they’re up against an SEC or non-SEC team on the bubble.
Addendum: Did Texas overlook Florida because they were focused on this game?
This is intriguing. It would add up. I’ll withhold judgment until we see what Sark puts on the football field.
Ohio State at Illinois
Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT (FOX)
Playoff probabilities:
- Ohio State: 98% entering week, 99% with a win, 90% with a loss
- Illinois: 23% entering week, 56% with a win, 18% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Ohio State by 14.5
- Movelor: Ohio State by 16.5
- Slate Fluker: Ohio State by 15.3
- Sagarin: Ohio State by 9.31
Illinois is by no means out of the playoff race.
But.
It’s going to be very hard to win this game.
The question of whether Ohio State is the best team in the country is a little misleading. Who’s been the best team in the country so far? That’s debatable. You could argue for Ohio State, or for Oregon, or for Miami, or even for a few others if you squint. Who’s likeliest to be the best team in the country when this is all said and done? That’s Ohio State. We say it all the time, but nobody else enjoys the depth of talent that they, Texas, Alabama, and Georgia have. Of those four, Ohio State’s the only one who’s consistently fired on all cylinders this year. They’ve also gone through the twelve-team bracket, playing a tough path in the process. They know how to do that.
But right now?
This is college football. Upsets happen, and a two-touchdown spread is hardly more than a standard deviation from a tie. Illinois is playing at home and presumably playing desperate. Bret Bielema’s not a bad coach. It’s a noon kickoff, just like the one at Missouri, and that presents challenges for coaching staffs. (Ohio State should be uniquely adept at those, because of the gametime of Ohio State vs. Michigan, but…well. You know.) Most importantly, right now Ohio State might not quite be the best football team in the country. They probably are, but there’s a chance they aren’t.
That, ultimately, is what’s going on here: Illinois’s secondary’s still short-staffed, and Illinois still can’t run the ball reliably, and Ohio State is bringing more than Jeremiah Smith to Champaign. But there’s a chance. Listen to the betting markets—they’re more reliable than anything we post, which is why we list them here—but don’t count this out until Ohio State really is running away with it. The difference between Luke Altmyer’s narrative and Fernando Mendoza’s is largely circumstance.
Michigan at USC
Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT (NBC)
Playoff probabilities:
- Michigan: 19% entering week, 35% with a win, 6% with a loss
- USC: 15% entering week, 24% with a win, 3% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: USC by 2.5
- Movelor: USC by 2.1
- Slate Fluker: USC by 2.3
- Sagarin: USC by 4.24
Finally, something in primetime.
Michigan and USC are both 4–1 with a road loss to a ranked opponent. Michigan did beat Nebraska in Lincoln, but that’s the most noteworthy win between the pair. Why is Michigan ranked in the top 15 while USC’s unranked? I don’t really know, man. I guess the voters didn’t think USC was going to be good preseason, so they won’t rank them now either? Even though all objective evidence points towards them and Michigan being the same team, and the pair is equally accomplished? (This has been our semi-weekly edition of “What is the AP Poll ranking, anyway?”)
The bottom line is that these two teams are probably about as good as one another. That’s an impression we all seem to share. These teams are really different—USC is electric offensively, with Makai Lemon maybe the best wide receiver in the country; Michigan is stronger defensively but does run the ball well—but at a high level, they’re both pretty good. That’s what we think, anyway. As that Nebraska anecdote hopefully made clear, neither’s been tested all that much. Combined, they’ve played Oklahoma away, Illinois away, Nebraska away, and a whole lot of nothing. That’s two fringy playoff contenders and a trip to see Big Red.
There’s a chance that USC in particular is better than we’ve realized. The offense is already so good, and it’s easy to see more upside. They should have beaten Illinois, and while the flukiness involved was mostly USC making mistakes, it was still a little fluky. For Michigan, the hope is that they’re getting better than they’ve been. Bryce Underwood has looked ready for college football so far, especially when he’s had to. Maybe some of that has been thanks to Sherrone Moore reining him in, but it’s easy to see a case that improvement could be made.
The SEC has a better bottom than the Big Ten. It might not have a better middle. That #15 next to Michigan on your TV screen isn’t overkill. USC should be right there with them. And Sunday morning, one of them’s going to be a serious playoff contender heading into the back half of the season.
One last note here: Michigan’s only West Coast trip last year ended with a ten-point loss to Washington. Something to keep in mind.
Arizona State at Utah
Saturday, 10:15 PM EDT (ESPN)
Playoff probabilities:
- Utah: 25% entering week, 35% with a win, 6% with a loss
- Arizona State: 18% entering week, 36% with a win, 9% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: Utah by 6.5
- Movelor: Utah by 5.5
- Slate Fluker: Utah by 4.6
- Sagarin: Utah by 7.47
The big news here is that last night, Sam Leavitt was unexpectedly downgraded from probable to doubtful, a development which makes an already tough trip trickier for ASU.
Utah’s perplexing because with the exception of the Texas Tech game, they’ve looked great all year, but the Texas Tech game was bad and besides Texas Tech, Utah hasn’t really played anybody. To be fair, the Utes were in that until an injury to Behren Morton forced Tech backup Will Hammond into the game. But Utah lost a home game by 24 points. It’s really unlikely that Texas Tech is Ohio State levels of good.
This is where the measuring sticks begin, and from a playoff perspective, this is where it counts most, at least for ASU. The Mississippi State loss hurts, but the simplest path to the playoff field is always going to be a conference championship. That’s the leave–no–doubt approach, and it might be a necessity in the Big 12 given how hard it’s going to be for the champion to not lose multiple games.
What to watch here? Whether Arizona State’s defense can force Utah to make plays through the air. Whether Devon Dampier can force ASU’s defense to give more space to the running game. Whether Jeff Sims, he of Georgia Tech and Nebraska days of yore, is really much of a downgrade from the exciting but not always effective Leavitt. Whether turning it on halfway through the year is going to be a Kenny Dillingham’s ASU staple. Whether Utah will forever be a team who’s great nine times a year but is always forced to play twelve or thirteen games.
Eleven Big 12 teams still have zero conference losses or one. Nine of those are believable Big 12 champions. These are two of the most believable.
USF at North Texas
Friday, 7:30 PM EDT (ESPN2)
Playoff probabilities:
- North Texas: 18% entering week, 29% with a win, 4% with a loss
- USF: 9% entering week, 18% with a win, 2% with a loss
Spreads:
- Betting markets: North Texas by 1.5
- Movelor: North Texas by 1.6
- Slate Fluker: North Texas by 2.3
- Sagarin: North Texas by 3.69
Whoever wins this game will still have to find a way past Memphis to win the AAC. But you know this USF team, North Texas is 5–0, and DATCU Stadium is sold out for the first time in UNT history. (Plus, we’re North Texas-friendly here. Great people in that athletic department, even if we’re more familiar with the basketball team.)
The story on UNT is that in Eric Morris’s third year in Denton, the former Texas Tech wide receiver has the Mean Green offense humming, with redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker up to eleven touchdowns and no interceptions through five games. The Mean Green waxed Washington State, won a pair of overtime games on the road, and took down South Alabama two weeks ago to lock in their best start to a season since before Mean Joe Greene himself walked those Denton streets. Now, they get the same USF who throttled Boise State and shocked Florida. Friday night lights.
USF is tough, but this is another matchup between rough equals. The key distinction is that UNT’s a more lopsided team, meaning they do some things better than others. USF is kind of the same quality of team in every facet of the game. Defensively, UNT’s been better against the pass than the run. But does that play into Byrum Brown’s hands? Offensively, UNT’s been more efficient on the ground than through the air. But does that open opportunities for Mestemaker to make plays? It’s a historic night at a great school up against a very good football program. The winner’s going to be close to second in line for mid-majordom’s guaranteed playoff bid.
The Rest
There are, of course, more than seven games this weekend. Playoff probabilities from some of the other big ones, with the FCS level starting at Yale/Dartmouth:
- Georgia (at Auburn): 54% with a win, 18% with a loss
- Texas A&M (vs. Florida): 41% with a win, 10% with a loss
- LSU (vs. South Carolina): 39% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Texas Tech (vs. Kansas): 73% with a win, 37% with a loss
- BYU (at Arizona): 38% with a win, 11% with a loss
- Iowa State (at Colorado): 22% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Washington (vs. Rutgers): 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Nebraska (at Maryland): 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Old Dominion (at Marshall): 18% with a win, 2% with a loss
- UNLV (vs. Air Force): 13% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Yale (at Dartmouth): 80% with a win, 38% with a loss
- Dartmouth (vs. Yale): 63% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Elon (vs. Villanova): 74% with a win, 28% with a loss
- Villanova (at Elon): 82% with a win, 36% with a loss
- North Dakota (vs. Youngstown State): 71% with a win, 29% with a loss
- Youngstown State (at North Dakota): 65% with a win, 21% with a loss
- UC Davis (vs. Northern Arizona): 94% with a win, 65% with a loss
- Northern Arizona (at UC Davis): 88% with a win, 55% with a loss
Among other big ones at that FCS level, Movelor has North Dakota State favored by 25.4 against Southern Illinois (despite SIU being a top-ten quality team), and it has Jackson State favored by 6.9 over Alabama State in a game that should decide who wins the SWAC’s East Division (the loser will be a playoff contender). We’d love to talk more about those and the rest of these, but we are unfortunately out of time. We’ll give it another shot next week. Until then, keep an eye out for our bracketology updates and other takeaways on Sunday and Monday. And as always, Go Cyclones.
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