Drake is on the bubble.
This isn’t all that surprising. Our model’s had them on or around the bubble for some time. After they beat Loyola on Valentine’s Day, their projection grew more comfortable, but there was always the possibility the cushion would be wiped away, and after yesterday’s loss in Peoria, the January darlings are on thin ice.
There’s good news for the Bulldogs, though. They’re heavy underdogs to win the MVC Tournament, and yet they’re still in our bracketology this morning, which signifies that in their median simulation, in which they lose to Loyola in the Arch Madness championship game, they still narrowly project to land ahead of the cut line.
Even then, though, they’re nervewrackingly close, and nervewrackingly at the mercy of those around them.
***
No moves in or out of the field today, but some multi-seed line movement within it.
Moving Up: Oklahoma State, Florida, Texas Tech
In some ways, Oklahoma State’s triumph over their archrival was smaller than it looked. While the Sooners possessed a top-ten ranking in the futilely stupid exercise that is college basketball’s AP Poll, they entered the game 31st in KenPom, fresh off a defeat at the hands of the worst college basketball team of which Bruce Weber has ever been a part. In other ways, though, it was bigger than it looked. It came on the road. It was unexpected. And the end result was that while Oklahoma slid a seed line down to the 8-line, the Pokes surged to a 5-seed. Good times for the Cowboys. For now, anyway. OU comes to Stillwater tomorrow night for round two.
Mike White has drawn a lot of criticism in recent years for the job he’s done at Florida, but whether due to him or other factors, the team has pulled itself up admirably following the Keyontae Johnson scare. They’re without one of their best players. That player appeared to nearly die on the court. They’ve managed to get themselves into a position from which they could make a run in March, with yesterday’s victory in Lexington the latest notch notched. Mike White or otherwise, it’s impressive. They’re up to a 6-seed.
And then there’s Texas Tech. The Red Raiders pulled Texas down into the junkyard, beat the Longhorns up, and came out of the fray having climbed back to a 7-seed. The Red Raiders might be worse than one thinks. They’re only 23rd in KenPom, and they have a hard time putting the ball int the hoop efficiently. They also have that quality that, whether true or untrue, makes one feel that they can beat any team in the country if they just make things chaotic enough. They are a team full of Tasmanian Devils.
Texas Tech is expected to bow out in the tournament’s second round. No one would be surprised if they made the Final Four. Chris Beard is a unique phenomenon.
Moving Down: Wisconsin, VCU, Drake
Wisconsin had experience. Wisconsin had defense. Wisconsin had savvy. Then, the season started. Even after the Marquette loss in Milwaukee, things were fine. Even after losing to Maryland in Madison, the Badgers were in the KenPom top five. But their best win, to date, is a win in Piscataway. The best team they’ve beaten is Loyola. Against the Big Ten’s big four, they’re 0-6. Can they beat those teams? Definitely. But they haven’t. And they’re currently projected to land as a dangerous 8-seed (not the most dangerous, though, as Loyola is also an 8-seed and oh my I just realized the 8-seeds are collectively better than the 4-seeds).
Opposite Wisconsin in today’s projection is VCU. The Rams lost at Davidson yesterday, which isn’t a bad loss, but, was unexpected. They’ll still have a bye in the A-10 Tournament, unless I’ve really missed something, and as long as they can avoid losing to someone real bad, they’re looking safe to make the field. But their hopes of positioning themselves such that the Sweet Sixteen is a realistic destination have faded a bit. They probably need to win the conference tournament to make that path viable.
Conference Tournaments
No big model updates yesterday—looking to crank out more today. For those who aren’t regular readers, this just means that not every conference’s treatment of postponements and conference tournament format is finalized in our model. We’re about halfway through, and we haven’t seen it produce a big effect so far, but that’s the situation, and we’re keeping everyone updated in this space.
After yesterday’s games, the Big South and A-East probabilities shake out as follows:
America East
Vermont: 51.3%
UMBC: 40.5%
Hartford: 3.3%
New Hampshire: 1.8%
Albany: 1.6%
UMass-Lowell: 1.6%
Quarterfinals there today between the bottom four, but as you might guess, those won’t have a huge impact on Vermont and UMBC’s respective odds.
Big South
Winthrop: 67.1%
Radford: 11.9%
Gardner-Webb: 7.3%
UNC-Asheville: 6.4%
Campbell: 4.9%
Longwood: 1.8%
High Point: 0.5%
Hampton: 0.1%
Just preliminary games here yesterday. No big shifts. Next games tomorrow.
