You could use the “aces wild” line, but aside from Scherzer, these weren’t really the aces. Which makes it arguably a bit more fun.
What Happened
Atlanta 3, Milwaukee 0
Ian Anderson tossed five scoreless innings, striking out six and walking none to guide Atlanta through the early stages, early stages in which the home team negated one of their own runs on what should have been a sac fly when Adam Duvall inexplicably tried to advance to second. He was tagged out before Austin Riley could cross the plate. The game remained scoreless.
Luckily for Duvall, it didn’t end up mattering. After the Brewers pulled Freddy Peralta for a pinch hitter with runners on second and third in the fifth (Anderson worked out of it with some help from Dansby Swanson and Riley), Atlanta capitalized, jumping on Adrian Houser for two base hits before their own pinch hitter, Joc Pederson, homered to right to give the team a 3-0 lead that the bullpen—Jesse Chavez, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith—held.
Boston 6, Tampa Bay 5
Eduardo Rodriguez tossed five two-run innings, beginning the game by retiring nine straight batters (five on strikeouts) while the Red Sox assembled a 5-0 lead, largely on a Rafael Devers third-inning home run. The lefty, who’d struggled in Game 1, ended up pitching into the sixth, but after a leadoff double by Kevin Kiermaier, he exited and Tanner Houck came on, which is when things got dicey. Wander Franco homered to make it 5-3, and the comeback was on. After Pete Fairbanks wriggled out of a first-and-third, one-out jam in the bottom of the seventh, inducing a Xander Bogaerts double play ball, the Rays made their move: Mike Zunino doubled off of Ryan Brasier. Kiermaier doubled off of Brasier. Randy Arozarena singled off of Brasier. Tie ballgame.
Garrett Whitlock came in and worked out of the inning without allowing Arozarena to score, sending things to the bottom of the eighth knotted at five, but the damage was done. The Red Sox had coughed up a five-run lead in a potential clincher. Things were, as we said, dicey.
Leading off the eighth, Alex Verdugo hit a ground ball to Franco at short. Franco threw the ball away. Verdugo advanced to second. The Red Sox were in business.
But it was not their time yet. After not trying to advance on a J.D. Martinez flyout to Arozarena in right, Verdugo did try to advance on a Hunter Renfroe flyout to Kiermaier in center. It was a close, close play at third, but Kiermaier’s throw was in time, and the Red Sox had now, in addition to blowing a 5-0 lead, failed to score in an inning that began with a runner on second and nobody out.
Whitlock didn’t blink, though, working through the top of the ninth in order. And then, it was time for the Rays to finally say goodnight. Christian Vázquez punched a ball through the left side. Christian Arroyo bunted him ahead to second. Travis Shaw dribbled out an infield single (it’s worth noting here that Vázquez and Shaw’s hits had respective xBA’s of .180 and .060, which is just more horrible luck for the Rays on the series after the Renfroe ball-bonk on Sunday). With Danny Santana pinch running for Vázquez at third, it was up to Kike Hernández, whose fly ball to left brought Santana home and sent Boston on to the ALCS.
San Francisco 1, Los Angeles 0
Alex Wood tossed four and two-thirds scoreless innings, striking out four and walking two before handing the ball to Tyler Rogers, who induced an inning-ending groundout from Mookie Betts with help from Brandon Crawford and whoever does the Giants’ defensive positioning (also, some luck—it was a hard-hit ball). With Evan Longoria having homered in the fifth for the visitors—who notched just three hits and one walk in total on the day off of Max Scherzer (7 IP, 10 K, 1 BB), Blake Treinen (1 IP, 1 K, 0 BB), and Kenley Jansen (1 IP, 3 K, 0 BB)—it was up to the Giants’ bullpen, and with some help from 1) the uncharacteristic Dodger Stadium wind, which knocked down potential go-ahead and tying home runs by Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux, and 2) Crawford, who somehow grabbed a Betts line drive that looked bound to tie the game in the seventh with runners on the bases.
To be fair to the wind, it took some swipes at the Giants too: Mike Yastrzemski hit one deep and hard off of Scherzer in the sixth that Taylor (who also made a nifty catch on an Evan Longoria liner in the seventh) was able to track down.
The Giants lead, two games to one.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs, and please note that this doesn’t include Kiermaier’s throw or Taylor and Crawford’s catches or any other defensive brilliance:
- Whitlock (0.39)
- Camilo Doval (0.33) – Should have mentioned Doval above—six-out save. Nails, even if Lux hit that hard.
- Devers (0.30)
- Anderson (0.29)
- Wood (0.25)
- Peralta (0.22)
- Scherzer (0.22)
- Pederson (0.20)
- Kiermaier (0.20)
- Jake McGee (0.19) – Entered after Rogers with two men on, got out of it by way of a strikeout and the Crawford catch
- Arozarena (0.19)
- Fairbanks (0.18)
- Verdugo (0.16)
- Rodriguez (0.15)
- Shaw (0.14)
- Longoria (0.12)
What It Means
For the Dodgers and Giants, it means Los Angeles now can’t win the series in LA. Either the Giants finish them off tonight, or this goes back to San Francisco for a winner-take-all Game 5. The Giants are now National League favorites once more, both on FanGraphs and in the markets I’m seeing.
For Atlanta and Milwaukee, it puts Milwaukee’s back against the wall, with Atlanta close to the Giants for momentary favoritehood (the Giants/Dodgers winner would be favored over Atlanta, but if it’s the Giants, FanGraphs looks likely to stay much lower on them than the market).
For the Rays, it’s frustration on frustration. Some poor performance, sure, but also just a lot of bad luck. The Red Sox are now AL favorites (again, probably momentarily—the Astros would be favored over them in the ALCS, and it’s possible the market would prefer the White Sox but I’m not sure about that), and are also temporary World Series favorites, checking in at 27.3% likely to win it all, per FanGraphs.
For the Astros, there’s added pressure to wrap their series up today, as the Red Sox now get three days of rest before the ALCS begins, which is plenty of time to get the rotation and bullpen in order.
Other Notes
- Brandon Lowe had another sad game. 0-for-4, three strikeouts. Terrible series for the guy.
- Yandy Díaz deserves some credit for the tag on Verdugo from the Kiermaier throw.
- Rafael Devers’s arm seems to be…ok enough? Ditto J.D. Martinez’s ankle, which seems less of an issue given he can DH and it doesn’t appear to significantly affect his swing.
- Josh Taylor threw an effective seventh for the Red Sox.
- The Brewers’ offense might finally be catching up to them. Just two runs total over the series’ first three games.
- Does anyone remember a comparably windy game at Dodger Stadium? I missed it on the forecast, and I don’t remember seeing that before but maybe I’ve just forgotten. I don’t watch the Dodgers too much.
***
Now, today’s three games. In chronological order, which means we start in Chicago:
The Basics
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field
When: 2:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: FS1
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodón (CWS), Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU)
Odds: CWS -115; HOU -105; o/u 8½ [English translation: The White Sox are something like 52% likely to win; the Astros are something like 48% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is right at 8.5.]
The Details
With yesterday’s rainout, Dusty Baker gets to go back to McCullers on normal rest, while Tony La Russa opting to stick with the plan and pitch Rodón rather than Lance Lynn. If Rodón’s healthy, it’s a good call—Rodón’s been great when healthy. If he’s not healthy, though, Lynn’s small-sample struggles against Houston might not be the best justification for the move. We’ll see.
There’s a psychological element here where, after having a chance to finish their opponent off on Sunday, the Astros let the Sox back in it, then spent all day yesterday waiting around thinking about it. It’s easy to overstate the impact of this, but it’s also possible to ignore it entirely, and the latter is probably a bit unreasonable.
That said, McCullers being on the mound is very good for Houston. Very, very good.
The Stars
Luis Robert and Tim Anderson have met the moment, as have José Abreu and Eloy Jiménez, albeit to a lesser extent. Leury García was a stud on Sunday. So were Ryan Tepera and Aaron Bummer, who now have had an extra day of rest after multi-inning appearances that didn’t require too high a pitch count. The Sox have the guys to pull this off, and that’s reflected in their status as favorites. It’s really just those questions about Rodón’s shoulder, which has forced him to miss time recently.
For the Astros, Yordan Alvarez has led the way, with Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker making about as many statements with their hitting as Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa. Not crushing the ball so far has been Jose Altuve, whose series OPS is just .673. Look for him to even things out a bit.
In the Houston bullpen, Ryan Pressly should be fresh, and if the Astros have a close lead, he could be leaned on heavily. The risk, though, is that it doesn’t work and he’s burned for a winner-take-all Game 5 tomorrow, with the travel day wiped out by the rainout.
***
When we’re done with that (or slightly before we’re done with that, more realistically), Atlanta tries to clinch in Atlanta:
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 5:15 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: TBD
Odds: Not available everywhere just yet (due to the pitchers not being listed), but from what’s available: ATL -142; MIL +120; o/u 8½ (o -114) [English translation: Atlanta’s roughly 57% likely to win; the Brewers are roughly 43% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is somewhere around 8.6]
The Details
Who’s pitching? Craig Counsell has said Corbin Burnes won’t pitch on short rest, and Houser threw 22 pitches yesterday, which doesn’t eliminate him from the relief conversation but makes a full-on start unlikely. Eric Lauer seems to be the best bet (4.04 FIP, 3.92 xERA), though the Brewers could go with a true bullpen game if they want, and they could even opt to make analytical types salivate and start Josh Hader, using their best pitcher to get as many outs as possible on the idea outs are equally valuable no matter when they come. This would be a big shift in role for Hader, but Milwaukee’s had weeks to think about and prepare for this exact scenario.
For Atlanta, Charlie Morton could pitch on three days’ rest after throwing 85 pitches on Friday. Jesse Chavez has opened a bit, and could kick off a bullpen game. Huascar Ynoa seems most likely, though, finishing the year with a 3.93 FIP and 4.30 xERA after missing three months due to breaking his hand punching the bench.
We’ll see. Expect the announcement later this morning.
The Stars
Can Pederson have a moment, or was yesterday a one-hit wonder? Can the top of the Atlanta order make things happen? How many innings is Josh Hader going to throw? Can the Brewers get something, anything, from anyone on offense?
***
And finally…the potential elimination of the reigning champs:
The Basics
Where: Dodger Stadium
When: 9:07 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: TBD (LA); Anthony DeSclafani (SF)
Odds: Again, not available everywhere, but where they are: LA -155; SF +135; o/u 8 (u -120) [English translation: The Dodgers are roughly 59% likely to win; the Giants are roughly 41% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 7.76]
The Details
Who’s pitching? Tony Gonsolin (4.53 FIP, 3.68 xERA) is expected to throw at least some of this for the Dodgers, though how much and in what circumstance is unclear. He missed a lot of time this year, but he got up to throwing to as many as 20 batters late in the year, which is a fairly conventional number for a starter, meaning this might be simpler than the uncertainty implies. Walker Buehler could theoretically go on three days’ rest, but he threw 99 pitches on Thursday and the general baseball-wide numbers on three days’ rest aren’t great, so if he does pitch, it seems more likely to be in a brief role, most likely in relief, and if that’s the plan then again, the Dodgers might be better served using that big ol’ bullpen of theirs. And speaking of that big ol’ bullpen, one would imagine we’ll see David Price (4.23 FIP, 4.03 xERA), who hasn’t faced more than six batters in an outing since Labor Day weekend but was up to facing as many as 22 batters in an outing in July.
For the Giants, it’s DeSclafani, with his 3.62 FIP, 3.92 xERA, and thorough bounce back from a brutal 2020 in Cincinnati where the small sample might have doomed him. One facet of the Giants’ stalwart rotation is that these guys are fairly comparable to one another, one through four. DeSclafani is not Logan Webb or Kevin Gausman, but he’s a spectacular fourth starter.
Out of the bullpen, will Doval be available again? It was a two-inning save, but he only threw 22 pitches. The same can be asked of Tyler Rogers, who threw 29 pitches while getting five outs.
The Stars
Almost everyone has had a quiet series at the plate, with the exceptions of Kris Bryant, Tommy La Stella, Chris Taylor, and the starting catchers—Buster Posey and Will Smith. This isn’t as surprising for the Giants as it is for the Dodgers, who would love Trea Turner, Corey Seager, Mookie Betts, and Justin Turner to come to life.
***
It’s elimination baseball. All day long. See you there.
